Services PMI® at 54.5%; August 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 57.3%; New Orders Index at 57.5%; Employment Index at 54.7%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 48.5%

TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 6, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month as the Services PMI^® registered 54.5 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The sector has grown in 38 of the last 39 months, with the lone contraction in December of last year.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In August, the Services PMI^® registered 54.5 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than July's reading of 52.7 percent. The composite index indicated growth in August for the eighth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 57.3 percent, a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 57.1 percent in July. The New Orders Index expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 57.5 percent is 2.5 percentage points higher than the July reading of 55 percent.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.5 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 48.1 percent recorded in July. In the last six months, the average reading of 47.7 percent (with a low of 45.8 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^®Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"The Prices Index was up 2.1 percentage points in August, to 58.9 percent. The Inventories Index expanded in August for the fourth consecutive month, after one month of contraction preceded by two months of growth and eight months of contraction from June 2022 to January 2023; the reading of 57.7 percent is up 7.3 percentage points from July's figure of 50.4 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (61.5 percent, up 4.9 percentage points from July's reading of 56.6 percent) expanded for the fourth consecutive month after one month of contraction preceded by four months of growth, with a four-month period of contraction from August to November 2022. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, a 10.3-percentage point decrease compared to the July figure of 52.1 percent.

"Thirteen industries reported growth in August. The Services PMI^®, by being above 50 percent for the eighth month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector. The composite index has indicated expansion for all but three of the previous 162 months."

Nieves continues, "There has been an increase in the rate of growth for the services sector, reflected by increases in all four of the subindexes that directly factor into the composite Services PMI^® and faster supplier deliveries. Sentiment among Business Survey Committee respondents varies by industry; however, the majority of panelists are positive about business and economic conditions."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 13 services industries reporting growth in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Information; Educational Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting a decrease in the month of August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Management of Companies & Support Services. 

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Restaurant sales and traffic trends remain positive year over year and compared to pre-pandemic (levels). Hiring is stable, with quality employees available. New California regulations in July included (municipal) minimum wage hikes and implementation of Proposition 12 (a farm animal health and welfare legislation), resulting in much higher pork prices." [Accommodation & Food Services]
• "Sales on a national level have been strong. Commodity material prices remain stable, and we are finding areas for cost reductions. Material availability has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels." [Construction]
• "While labor costs continue to soften, costs of pharmaceuticals and supplies remain stubbornly high, negatively impacting operating margins. Supply chains are operating consistently, though some categories of supply remain constrained. Patient volumes and revenues were down slightly (for the month) but appear to be rebounding as back-to-school season approaches. Forecast remains cautiously optimistic." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• "The supply chain challenges affect a portion of our buys, as they include products and components made outside of the U.S. and are subject to shipping delays and issues. The prices of materials and other products have slightly increased. Distribution of some direct materials has been altered due to a key supplier financial issue." [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• "Steady oil and gas production and sales volume. Declining commodity prices seem to have bottomed out." [Mining]
• "The summer slowdown is similar to those in recent years due to vacations. Third-quarter projections are close to expectation. Inflationary costs are mostly in fuel and fuel-related commodities, having an adverse effect on profits." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• "Prices have settled. Warnings of a possible recession in 2024 are not being taken very seriously by top management. The same experts warned that the country would be in a recession by now. Our general feeling is that the (Federal Reserve's) strategy for taming inflation and building a soft landing for the economy is working better than expected. The city has proposed reducing its municipal tax for the fiscal year beginning October 1." [Public Administration]
• "Overall conditions seem quite good, although there is definite slowdown in residential construction driven by rapidly increasing interest rates." [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
• "Business activity continues to be lower year over year, but we are meeting the year-to-date forecast." [Retail Trade]
• "Utility contractors in high demand." [Utilities]

 

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Bacon; Copper Wire; Diesel Fuel (2); Electrical Components (31); Food and Beverages; Fuel; Gasoline (7); Gasoline Related Products; Labor (33); Lumber (3); Office Supplies; Oriented Strand Board (OSB) (3); and Pharmaceuticals.

Commodities Down in Price
Caustic Soda; Steel Products; and Pallets.

Commodities in Short Supply
Construction Contractors (4); Construction Subcontractors (3); Electrical Components (5); Engineered Wood Products; Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (10); Sanitizer; and Transformers (12).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

AUGUST 2023 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In August, the Services PMI^® registered 54.5 percent, a 1.8-percentage point increase compared to the July reading of 52.7 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the August Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing for the eighth consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for August (54.5 percent) corresponds to a 1.6-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 57.3 percent in August, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the reading of 57.1 percent in July, indicating growth for the 39th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "Based on our fiscal year end, a post-pandemic environment is leading to higher levels of activity than anticipated" and "Increases in requests for service."

The 12 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of August — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; and Retail Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Orders
ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered 57.5 percent, up 2.5 percentage points from the July reading of 55 percent. The index indicated expansion for the eighth consecutive month after contracting in December, ending a string of 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: "New customers added as our business continues to grow" and "New awards were issued from a government client."

The 12 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of August — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Information; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector grew in August for the third consecutive month after contracting in May, with three consecutive months of growth before that. The Employment Index registered 54.7 percent, up 4 percentage points from the July figure of 50.7 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Open positions being filled with quality candidates" and "We have lost employees due to normal attrition and are having issues backfilling these positions." Also: "The labor market remains very competitive."

The eight industries reporting an increase in employment in August — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Construction; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in August — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.5 percent, up 0.4 percentage point from the 48.1 percent recorded in July. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. The August reading indicates supplier deliveries are faster, though at a slower rate compared to the previous month. Comments from respondents include: "Inventories are growing at suppliers, and we are seeing fewer back orders on common materials" and "Supply on goods and services all good, and no delivery performance issues, including for imports transportation at ports and airports."

The four industries reporting slower deliveries in August are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The eight industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of August — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Educational Services. Six industries reported no change in supplier deliveries.

Inventories
The Inventories Index grew in August for the fourth consecutive month after contracting in April. The index indicated four months of growth from February to May 2022 and eight months of contraction from June 2022 to January 2023. The reading of 57.7 percent was a 7.3-percentage point increase compared to the 50.4 percent reported in July. Of the total respondents in August, 43 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Inventory added to service the needs of new customers" and "Starting to bring in more material ahead of the holiday season."

The nine industries reporting an increase in inventories in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Retail Trade. The five industries reporting a decrease in inventories in August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Construction; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in August for the 75th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 58.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 56.8 percent recorded in July, indicating a faster rate of increases and a movement from equilibrium. The August reading is the 14th in a row near or below 70 percent (with six straight months below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent.

Twelve services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of August, in the following order: Public Administration; Other Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in prices for August are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Transportation & Warehousing.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index contracted in August after indicating expansion in July, preceded by four months of contraction from March to June and 26 straight months of growth before that. The index reading of 41.8 percent is 10.3 percentage points lower than the 52.1 percent reported in July. The drop of 10.3 percentage points is the largest recorded since Services data began collection in July 1997. The previous record was a drop of 8.8 percentage points this past May. Of the total respondents in August, 49 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: "Improved supplier deliveries and fill rates" and "Several large, long-awaited shipments have arrived."

The five industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in August are: Educational Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Information; and Utilities. The six industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reporting no change in backlogs.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew for the fifth consecutive month in August. The New Export Orders Index registered 62.1 percent, a 1-percentage point increase from the 61.1 percent reported in July. New export orders contracted in March 2023 after two months of expansion. The index indicated contraction from October to December 2022, with eight months (February-September 2022) of growth before that. Of the total respondents in August, 81 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in August — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. No industry reported a decrease in new export orders in August. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in August.

Imports
The Imports Index registered 52.3 in August, equaling July's reading. The index has indicated expansion in 10 of the last 12 months, with the only contraction in March and an "unchanged" status (a reading of 50 percent) in May. Seventy-nine percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of August — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries that reported a decrease in imports in August are: Accommodation & Food Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. Nine industries reported no change in imports in August.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the fourth consecutive month in August after a contraction in April, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction prior to that. The index registered 61.5 percent, a 4.9-percentage point increase from July's figure of 56.6 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 10 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Construction; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Information; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The two industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in August are: Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries reported no change in Inventory Sentiment in August.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2023.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2021 GDP (released December 22, 2022), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and the ISM Supply Chain Capability Model™. The ISM Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring September 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 4, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

 

 

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management