3 things to watch for in Russia’s presidential election – other than Putin’s win, that is
While the result may be a foregone conclusion, the election offers an important glimpse into the Kremlin’s domestic challenges as it continues a war against Ukraine that recently entered its third year.
- While the result may be a foregone conclusion, the election offers an important glimpse into the Kremlin’s domestic challenges as it continues a war against Ukraine that recently entered its third year.
- As an expert on Russian politics, I have identified three key developments worth paying attention to during and after the upcoming election.
1. Don’t mention the war (too much)
- With Russian domestic media and politics all but gutted of dissenting voices, the war has become the organizing principle of post-2022 Russian politics, shaping all major policies and decisions.
- Yet, while the context of the war looms large, its role is largely implicit rather than occupying center stage.
- There are relatively few ardent supporters of the war, outweighed by a more general sense of fatigue among the public.
- Yet the war is putting pressure on the government’s ability to juggle ensuring a disengaged population and bolstering support for a grinding war that demands unprecedented resources.
- That choice surprised some insiders, who expected Putin to weave his announcement into a high-profile, choreographed event focusing on domestic achievements and not the ongoing war.
2. Pressure to deliver results for Putin
- For officials, the election is a litmus test for their ability to muster administrative resources and deliver Putin an electoral windfall.
- Most reports suggest the Kremlin is hoping to engineer that the turnout is at least 70%, with around 80% of the vote for Putin – which would surpass his 76.7% share from 2018.
- For observers of Russian politics, what will be of interest is not the result itself, but how the result is produced during wartime conditions.
- Moreover, political disengagement and the certainty of a Putin victory means that interest in voting is at an all-time low.
3. Silencing political opposition
- The death of longtime Putin critic Alexei Navalny in February 2024 was a huge blow to the opposition but is representative of the state of political repression in Russia.
- Since 2018, some 116,000 Russians have faced political repression.
- Yet the scale of public mourning for Navalny and the enthusiasm for Nadezhdin reveal that despite draconian wartime censorship and repression, there remains a sizable bloc of Russians eager for authentic political alternatives.
Adam Lenton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.