Algorithm

Decomposing systemic risk: the roles of contagion and common exposures

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
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Abstract

Key Points: 
    • Abstract
      We evaluate the effects of contagion and common exposure on banks? capital through
      a regression design inspired by the structural VAR literature and derived from the balance
      sheet identity.
    • Contagion can occur through direct exposures, fire sales, and market-based
      sentiment, while common exposures result from portfolio overlaps.
    • First, we document that contagion varies in time, with the highest levels
      around the Great Financial Crisis and lowest levels during the pandemic.
    • Our new framework complements
      traditional stress-tests focused on single institutions by providing a holistic view of systemic risk.
    • While existing literature presents various contagion narratives, empirical findings on
      distress propagation - a precursor to defaults - remain scarce.
    • We decompose systemic risk into three elements: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk, all derived from banks? balance sheet identities.
    • The contagion factor encompasses both sentiment- and contractual-based elements, common exposures consider systemic
      aspects, while idiosyncratic risk encapsulates unique bank-specific risk sources.
    • Our empirical analysis of the Canadian banking system reveals the dynamic nature of contagion, with elevated levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis.
    • In conclusion, our model offers a comprehensive lens for policy intervention analysis and
      scenario evaluations on contagion and systemic risk in banking.
    • This
      notion of systemic risk implies two key components: first, systematic risks (e.g., risks related
      to common exposures) and second, contagion (i.e., an initially idiosyncratic problem becoming
      more widespread throughout the financial system) (see Caruana, 2010).
    • In this paper, we decompose systemic risk into three components: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk.
    • First, we include contagion in three forms: sentiment-based contagion, contractual-based
      contagion, and price-mediated contagion.
    • In this context,
      portfolio overlaps create common exposures, implying that bigger overlaps make systematic
      shocks more systemic.
    • With the COVID-19 pandemic starting
      in 2020, contagion drops to all time lows, potentially related to strong fiscal and monetary
      supports.
    • That is, our
      structural model provides a framework for analyzing the impact of policy interventions and
      scenarios on different levels of contagion and systemic risk in the banking system.
    • This provides a complementary approach to
      seminal papers that took a structural approach to contagion, such as DebtRank Battiston et al.
    • More generally, the literature on networks and systemic risk started with Allen and Gale
      (2001) and Eisenberg and Noe (2001).
    • The matrix is structured as follows:
      1

      In our model, we do not distinguish between interbank liabilities and other types of liabilities.

    • In other words, we can and aim to estimate different degrees
      of contagion per asset class, i.e., potentially distinct parameters ?Ga .
    • For that, we build three major
      metrics to check: average contagion, average common exposure, and average idiosyncratic risk.
    • N i j

      et ,
      Further, we define the (N ?K) common exposure matrix as Commt = [A

      (20)

      et ]diag (?C
      ?L

      such that average common exposure reads,
      average common exposure =

      1 XX
      Commik,t .

    • N i j

      (22)

      20

      ? c ),

      The three metrics?average contagion, average common exposure, and average idiosyncratic risk?provide a comprehensive framework for understanding banking dynamics.

    • Figure 4 depicts the average level of risks per systemic risk channel: contagion risk, common exposure, and idiosyncratic risk.
    • Figure 4: Average levels of contagion (Equation (20)), common exposure (Equation (21)), and idiosyncratic risk
      (Equation (22)).
    • The market-based contagion is the contagion due to
      investors? sentiment, and the network is an estimate FEVD on volatility data.
    • For most of
      the sample, we find that contagion had a bigger impact on the variance than common exposures.

China’s Interim Measures for the Management of Generative AI Services: A Comparison Between the Final and Draft Versions of the Text

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Authors: Yirong Sun and Jingxian Zeng Edited by Josh Lee Kok Thong (FPF) and Sakshi Shivhare (FPF) The following is a guest post to the FPF blog by Yirong Sun, research fellow at the New York University School of Law Guarini Institute for Global Legal Studies at NYU School of Law: Global Law & Tech [?]

Key Points: 


Authors: Yirong Sun and Jingxian Zeng Edited by Josh Lee Kok Thong (FPF) and Sakshi Shivhare (FPF) The following is a guest post to the FPF blog by Yirong Sun, research fellow at the New York University School of Law Guarini Institute for Global Legal Studies at NYU School of Law: Global Law & Tech [?]

Are tomorrow’s engineers ready to face AI’s ethical challenges?

Retrieved on: 
Friday, April 19, 2024

A test version of a Roomba vacuum collects images of users in private situations.

Key Points: 
  • A test version of a Roomba vacuum collects images of users in private situations.
  • The general public depends on software engineers and computer scientists to ensure these technologies are created in a safe and ethical manner.
  • What’s more, some appear apathetic about the moral dilemmas their careers may bring – just as advances in AI intensify such dilemmas.

Aware, but unprepared

  • We asked students about their experiences with ethical challenges in engineering, their knowledge of ethical dilemmas in the field and how they would respond to scenarios in the future.
  • When asked, however, “Do you feel equipped to respond in concerning or unethical situations?” students often said no.
  • “Do YOU know who I’m supposed to go to?” Another was troubled by the lack of training: “I [would be] dealing with that with no experience.


Other researchers have similarly found that many engineering students do not feel satisfied with the ethics training they do receive. Common training usually emphasizes professional codes of conduct, rather than the complex socio-technical factors underlying ethical decision-making. Research suggests that even when presented with particular scenarios or case studies, engineering students often struggle to recognize ethical dilemmas.

‘A box to check off’

  • A study assessing undergraduate STEM curricula in the U.S. found that coverage of ethical issues varied greatly in terms of content, amount and how seriously it is presented.
  • Additionally, an analysis of academic literature about engineering education found that ethics is often considered nonessential training.
  • [Misusage] issues are not their concern.” One of us, Erin Cech, followed a cohort of 326 engineering students from four U.S. colleges.
  • Following them after they left college, we found that their concerns regarding ethics did not rebound once these new graduates entered the workforce.

Joining the work world

  • When engineers do receive ethics training as part of their degree, it seems to work.
  • Along with engineering professor Cynthia Finelli, we conducted a survey of over 500 employed engineers.
  • Over a quarter of these practicing engineers reported encountering a concerning ethical situation at work.
  • Yet approximately one-third said they have never received training in public welfare – not during their education, and not during their career.


Elana Goldenkoff receives funding from National Science Foundation and Schmidt Futures. Erin A. Cech receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

TikTok fears point to larger problem: Poor media literacy in the social media age

Retrieved on: 
Friday, April 19, 2024

The U.S. government moved closer to banning the video social media app TikTok after the House of Representatives attached the measure to an emergency spending bill on Apr.

Key Points: 
  • The U.S. government moved closer to banning the video social media app TikTok after the House of Representatives attached the measure to an emergency spending bill on Apr.
  • The move could improve the bill’s chances in the Senate, and President Joe Biden has indicated that he will sign the bill if it reaches his desk.
  • The bill would force ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, to either sell its American holdings to a U.S. company or face a ban in the country.
  • For one, ByteDance can be required to assist the Chinese Communist Party in gathering intelligence, according to the Chinese National Intelligence Law.
  • The fact that China, a country that Americans criticize for its authoritarian practices, bans social media platforms is hardly a reason for the U.S. to do the same.
  • Here’s why I think the recent move against TikTok misses the larger point: Americans’ sources of information have declined in quality and the problem goes beyond any one social media platform.

The deeper problem

  • But the proposed solution of switching to American ownership of the app ignores an even more fundamental threat.
  • The deeper problem is not that the Chinese government can easily manipulate content on the app.
  • It is, rather, that people think it is OK to get their news from social media in the first place.
  • In other words, the real national security vulnerability is that people have acquiesced to informing themselves through social media.

Media and technology literacy

  • Research suggests that it will only be alleviated by inculcating media and technology literacy habits from an early age.
  • My colleagues and I have just launched a pilot program to boost digital media literacy with the Boston Mayor’s Youth Council.
  • Some of these measures to boost media and technology literacy might not be popular among tech users and tech companies.


The Applied Ethics Center at UMass Boston receives funding from the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. Nir Eisikovits serves as the data ethics advisor to Hour25AI, a startup dedicated to reducing digital distractions.

Approaches to Address AI-enabled Voice Cloning

Retrieved on: 
Friday, April 19, 2024

Approaches to Address AI-enabled Voice Cloning Today, the FTC announced four winners of the Voice Cloning Challenge, which was launched to address the present and emerging harms of artificial intelligence, or “AI”-enabled voice cloning technologies.

Key Points: 

Approaches to Address AI-enabled Voice Cloning

  • Today, the FTC announced four winners of the Voice Cloning Challenge, which was launched to address the present and emerging harms of artificial intelligence, or “AI”-enabled voice cloning technologies.
  • The FTC received submissions from a wide range of individuals, teams, and organizations.

Leveraging solutions to provide upstream prevention or authentication

  • Prevention or authentication refers to techniques that limit the application and misuse of voice cloning software by unauthorized users.
  • One commonly discussed approach for prevention and authentication is watermarking, which often refers to a “broad array of techniques” for embedding an identifying mark into a piece of media to track its origin to help prevent the misuse of cloned audio clips.
  • [2] Invisible or visible watermarks can be altered or removed, potentially rendering them unhelpful for differentiating between real and synthetic content.

Applying solutions to detect solutions in real-time


Real-time detection or monitoring includes methods to detect cloned voices or the use of voice cloning technology at the time during which a specific event occurs. Studies reveal a spectrum of efficacy for voice cloning detection solutions.[5] The effectiveness of such solutions is especially important when considering the types of AI-enabled voice cloning scams – such as fraudulent extortion scams – that the technology can enable.

Using solutions to evaluate existing content

  • The post-use evaluation of existing content includes methods to check if already-created audio clips such as voice mail messages and audio direct messages contain cloned voices.
  • One potential way to evaluate existing audio clips is to develop algorithms that detect inconsistencies in voice cloned clips.

Looking forward: Preventing and deterring AI-enabled voice cloning scams and fraud

  • While there are many exciting ideas with great potential, there’s still no silver bullet to prevent the harms posed by voice cloning.
  • Further, voice service providers – telephone and VoIP companies – need to continue making progress against illegal calls.
  • In addition, the Commission has recently enacted a new Impersonation Rule, which will give the agency additional tools to deter and halt deceptive voice cloning practices.
  • There is no AI exemption from the laws on the books and the FTC remains committed to protecting consumers from the misuse of “AI”-enabled voice cloning technologies.


[2]https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.01953.pdf
[3]https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/08/09/1077516/watermarking-ai-trus...
[4]https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/voice_cloning_financial_sca...
[5]https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.07683.pdf; https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.13770.pdf
[6]https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.14970.pdf
[7]https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.18085v1.pdf
[8] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.07683.pdf; https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.18085v1.pdf

Hard work and happy accidents: why do so many of us prefer ‘difficult’ analogue technology?

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, April 18, 2024

Up two flights of stairs, the music machinery on offer includes brands such as Moog and Buchla, as well as modern euro-racks.

Key Points: 
  • Up two flights of stairs, the music machinery on offer includes brands such as Moog and Buchla, as well as modern euro-racks.
  • (From Michael’s fieldnotes)
    I finally locate the legendary Schneiders Buero, a shop selling analogue synthesizers in Berlin’s Kotti neighbourhood.
  • Up two flights of stairs, the music machinery on offer includes brands such as Moog and Buchla, as well as modern euro-racks.
  • (From Michael’s fieldnotes) As academics who rarely go a day without playing or making music, we have spent the past decade examining the extraordinary revival of analogue technology.
  • This means there are now more analogue options available than at any time since the 1970s, the heyday of the modular format.

The appeal of the slow

  • So we dived in.
  • Eventually, these forays became our formal research project, which has included visiting record fairs and conventions around the world, going on photowalks and attending listening evenings, and meeting an array of diehard analogue communities both on and off line.
  • The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.
  • And we expect interest in such experiences to rise exponentially in coming years.
  • Recognising our existential need to occasionally slow down can be the basis for winning consumer strategies.
  • Recognising our existential need to occasionally slow down can be the basis for winning consumer strategies.

Saved from demolition

  • Rather than nostalgia, they are turning to film because of its aesthetic values and a greater sense of creative control over their photos.
  • In response, venerable brands including Kodak, Polaroid and Leica have re-emerged – in some cases, almost from the dead.
  • We literally saved it from demolition at the very last second in 2008.
  • We literally saved it from demolition at the very last second in 2008.
  • He said luxury brands such as Gucci are particularly keen on using film photography as this gives their promotional material a different look.

Work, effort, meaning

  • When it was conceded that digital probably was better for wildlife photography, James cut in:
    That’s to miss the point!
  • The sound might be better but you miss seeing the work that went into the performance, the effort of the players and their crew.
  • Work, effort, meaning – these ideas are all interconnected for users and consumers of analogue technology.
  • However, when asked to compare the two, they talk about the greater weight and meaning they give to their analogue experiences.
  • I think it is the quality of the human voice; it does feel more like someone’s speaking to me.
  • And part of what makes this possible is the process of analogue recording, in which all the sounds being made, including the unscripted noise of the recording process itself, are captured in the final track.
  • To facilitate this sound, some musicians have even started setting up their own pressing plants, such as Jack White’s Third Man Pressing in Detroit.

The joy of happy accidents

  • Half of what you do trying to make music is like a happy accident that ends up sounding better than what you intended.
  • When we started, we didn’t have that technology, so we made mistakes and some of them were happy accidents, resulting in iconic tracks.
  • When we started, we didn’t have that technology, so we made mistakes and some of them were happy accidents, resulting in iconic tracks.
  • It’s these happy accidents that we love.
  • It’s these happy accidents that we love.
  • For example, the opening bass part of Cannonball, the 1993 song by US Indie band the Breeders, accidentally starts in a different key.
  • Bass player Josephine Wiggs began playing the riff one step down, then fixed it when the drums came in.

Digital technology is de-skilling us

  • Over the decade or so of our research, explanations for the analogue revival have shifted from nostalgia, to the desire for something physical in a digital age, to the sense that analogue technology is creatively preferable.
  • Is digital technology de-skilling consumers, leading to a sense of alienation?
  • Using analogue technology is another way consumers can feed this desire to re-skill.
  • Rob told us how his love of music had turned sour with the “sheer ease” of digital, starting with CDs and the MP3 player – and how vinyl had reinvigorated him.
  • For him, the problem came when listening on digital devices without the “sides” of vinyl albums, and then on music streaming platforms whose digital algorithms preference popular tracks.

‘This song sucks’

  • These are the people who want to stretch and break the rules and trigger the happy accidents that create something altogether new.
  • For example, photographers who seek more creative expressions by pre-soaking or “souping” their camera film in lemon juice, coffee, beer, or even burning it.
  • And among this group, connecting digital and analogue technology is also common – combining two completely different systems to generate even more possibilities.
  • Film director Denis Villeneuve’s first instalment of Dune (2021) was initially shot on digital, then transferred to film, before being re-digitised.
  • By combining the two, Villeneuve got a film that, in his words, has a “more timeless, painterly feel”.


For you: more from our Insights series:
How music heals us, even when it’s sad – by a neuroscientist leading a new study of musical therapy

The artist formerly known as Camille – Prince’s lost album ‘comes out’

Beatrix Potter’s famous tales are rooted in stories told by enslaved Africans – but she was very quiet about their origins

To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. Subscribe to our newsletter.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Beauty giant Sephora has returned to the UK after nearly 20 years – by betting on AI and gen Z

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, April 18, 2024

Sephora, the French multinational retailer of personal care and beauty products, has made a comeback to the UK after an 18-year hiatus.

Key Points: 
  • Sephora, the French multinational retailer of personal care and beauty products, has made a comeback to the UK after an 18-year hiatus.
  • Back in 2005, Sephora decided to close its UK stores due to market challenges and fierce competition from homegrown retailers like Boots and Superdrug.
  • Sephora launched its online store in the UK in 2022 after acquiring Feelunique, a British online retailer.

The power of AI

  • Another factor that may have influenced Sephora’s decision is the growing power of artificial intelligence (AI) in the beauty industry.
  • Sephora has been at the forefront of this trend, leveraging AI to offer personalised skincare routines, virtual makeup try-on, and product recommendations based on individual preferences and skin types.
  • By harnessing the power of AI, Sephora may be able to provide a more engaging and tailored shopping experience to its UK customers.
  • The use of AI in beauty and fashion retail is a growing trend, with many companies recognising its potential to transform the shopping experience.

Back for good?

  • The retailer has been opening new stores in various regions, including China, Russia and the Middle East.
  • This international growth strategy could have given Sephora the confidence and resources to tackle the UK market once again.
  • But its return to the UK market after nearly 20 years is a bold move that reflects the changing dynamics of the beauty industry.


Nisreen Ameen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Gaza update: the questionable precision and ethics of Israel’s AI warfare machine

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, April 18, 2024

The IDF says it has been working on information gleaned from questioning Palestinian fighters captured in the fighting.

Key Points: 
  • The IDF says it has been working on information gleaned from questioning Palestinian fighters captured in the fighting.
  • According to a report in the Jerusalem Post on April 17, the Palestinian fighters were hiding out in schools in the area.
  • The investigation, by online Israeli magazines +927 and Local Call examined the use of an AI programme called “Lavender”.
  • It’s important to note that the IDF is not the only military to be working with AI in this way.
  • But one function of the way the IDF is harnessing Lavender in this current conflict is its use alongside other systems.
  • Read more:
    Israel accused of using AI to target thousands in Gaza, as killer algorithms outpace international law

The Iranian dimension

  • Away from the charnel house that is the Gaza Strip, the focus has been on the aftermath of Israel’s strike on the Iranian embassy in Baghdad on April 1.
  • As is his wont, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed revenge, declaring: “The Zionist regime will be punished by the hands of our brave men.
  • And this was very much how it was to turn out when Iran’s drones and missiles flew last weekend.
  • Read more:
    Could Israel's strike against the Iranian embassy in Damascus escalate into a wider regional war?
  • Read more:
    Why Iran's failed attack on Israel may well turn out to be a strategic success

The nuclear option?


One of the possibilities being widely canvassed is that Israel could mount some kind of attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. This has been revitalised in the years since Donald Trump pulled the US out of the deal negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama.

  • He walks us through the history of Iran’s nuclear programme, a story littered with the bodies of Iranian nuclear scientists and the wreckage of its nuclear facilities thanks to fiendish cyberattacks such as the Stuxnet virus developed by Israel and the US that was launched against Iran in 2010.
  • Since Trump quit the nuclear deal, Iran has gone full-steam ahead in ramping up its nuclear weapons programme, while reportedly hiding its key installations in deep underground bunkers that are thought impossible to destroy from the air.

To understand the risks posed by AI, follow the money

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Shortly thereafter, the consensus switched to fears of an imminent nuclear holocaust.

Key Points: 
  • Shortly thereafter, the consensus switched to fears of an imminent nuclear holocaust.
  • Similarly, today’s experts warn that an artificial general intelligence (AGI) doomsday is imminent.
  • It’s difficult to argue with David Collingridge’s influential thesis that attempting to predict the risks posed by new technologies is a fool’s errand.
  • Focusing on the economic risks from AI is not simply about preventing “monopoly,” “self-preferencing,” or “Big Tech dominance”.
  • It’s about ensuring that the economic environment facilitating innovation is not incentivising hard-to-predict technological risks as companies “move fast and break things” in a race for profit or market dominance.
  • OpenAI is already becoming a dominant player with US$2 billion (£1.6 billion) in annual sales and millions of users.

Degrading quality for higher profit

  • The problems fostered by social media, search, and recommendation algorithms was never an engineering issue, but one of financial incentives (of profit growth) not aligning with algorithms’ safe, effective, and equitable deployment.
  • For digital platforms, extracting digital rents usually entails degrading the quality of information shown to the user, on the basis of them “owning” access to a mass of customers.
  • But over time, a misalignment between the initial promise of them providing user value and the need to expand profit margins as growth slows has driven bad platform behaviour.

Amazon’s advertising

  • In our research on Amazon, we found that users still tend to click on the product results at the top of the page, even when they are no longer the best results but instead paid advertising placements.
  • For social media platforms, this was addictive content to increase time spent on platform at any cost to user health.
  • In the process, profits and profit margins have become concentrated in a few platforms’ hands, making innovation by outside companies harder.
  • Amazon’s most recent quarterly disclosures (Q4, 2023), shows year-on-year growth in online sales of 9%, but growth in fees of 20% (third-party seller services) and 27% (advertising sales).
  • Algorithms have become market gatekeepers and value allocators, and are now becoming producers and arbiters of knowledge.

Risks posed by the next generation of AI

  • But how much greater are the risks for the next generation of AI systems?
  • Thankfully, society is not helpless in shaping the economic risks that invariably arise after each new innovation.
  • Risks brought about from the economic environment in which innovation occurs are not immutable.
  • Market structure is shaped by regulators and a platform’s algorithmic institutions (especially its algorithms which make market-like allocations).
  • What role might interoperability and open source play in keeping the AI industry a more competitive and inclusive market?
  • Instead, we should try to recalibrate the economic incentives underpinning today’s innovations, away from risky uses of AI technology and towards open, accountable, AI algorithms that support and disperse value equitably.
  • Ilan Strauss receives funding from The Omidyar Network through the UCL IIPP research project on algorithmic rents Mariana Mazzucato received funding for this project from the Omidyar Foundation.
  • Rufus Rock received funding from the Omidyar Network whilst pursuing the research referenced in this piece.

EQS-News: Digital transformation specialist init at the beginning of its next growth phase

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, April 10, 2024

init innovation in traffic systems SE (ISIN DE 0005759807) is at the beginning of a growth phase.

Key Points: 
  • init innovation in traffic systems SE (ISIN DE 0005759807) is at the beginning of a growth phase.
  • This is characterised by trends such as digital transformation, electromobility, mobility as a service, smart ticketing and the increasing use of artificial intelligence.
  • In the context of global efforts to transform transport systems, we have already registered a rising number of tenders for international digital transformation projects,” reports the init Managing Board.
  • In its planning for the 2024 financial year, the init Managing Board therefore projects double-digit growth in revenue and earnings.