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Decomposing systemic risk: the roles of contagion and common exposures

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

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Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We evaluate the effects of contagion and common exposure on banks? capital through
a regression design inspired by the structural VAR literature and derived from the balance
sheet identity.
Contagion can occur through direct exposures, fire sales, and market-based
sentiment, while common exposures result from portfolio overlaps.
First, we document that contagion varies in time, with the highest levels
around the Great Financial Crisis and lowest levels during the pandemic.
Our new framework complements
traditional stress-tests focused on single institutions by providing a holistic view of systemic risk.
While existing literature presents various contagion narratives, empirical findings on
distress propagation - a precursor to defaults - remain scarce.
We decompose systemic risk into three elements: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk, all derived from banks? balance sheet identities.
The contagion factor encompasses both sentiment- and contractual-based elements, common exposures consider systemic
aspects, while idiosyncratic risk encapsulates unique bank-specific risk sources.
Our empirical analysis of the Canadian banking system reveals the dynamic nature of contagion, with elevated levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis.
In conclusion, our model offers a comprehensive lens for policy intervention analysis and
scenario evaluations on contagion and systemic risk in banking.
This
notion of systemic risk implies two key components: first, systematic risks (e.g., risks related
to common exposures) and second, contagion (i.e., an initially idiosyncratic problem becoming
more widespread throughout the financial system) (see Caruana, 2010).
In this paper, we decompose systemic risk into three components: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk.
First, we include contagion in three forms: sentiment-based contagion, contractual-based
contagion, and price-mediated contagion.
In this context,
portfolio overlaps create common exposures, implying that bigger overlaps make systematic
shocks more systemic.
With the COVID-19 pandemic starting
in 2020, contagion drops to all time lows, potentially related to strong fiscal and monetary
supports.
That is, our
structural model provides a framework for analyzing the impact of policy interventions and
scenarios on different levels of contagion and systemic risk in the banking system.
This provides a complementary approach to
seminal papers that took a structural approach to contagion, such as DebtRank Battiston et al.
More generally, the literature on networks and systemic risk started with Allen and Gale
(2001) and Eisenberg and Noe (2001).
The matrix is structured as follows:
1
In our model, we do not distinguish between interbank liabilities and other types of liabilities.
In other words, we can and aim to estimate different degrees
of contagion per asset class, i.e., potentially distinct parameters ?Ga .
For that, we build three major
metrics to check: average contagion, average common exposure, and average idiosyncratic risk.
N i j
et ,
Further, we define the (N ?K) common exposure matrix as Commt = [A

(20)

et ]diag (?C
?L

such that average common exposure reads,
average common exposure =

1 XX
Commik,t .
N i j
(22)

20

? c ),

The three metrics?average contagion, average common exposure, and average idiosyncratic risk?provide a comprehensive framework for understanding banking dynamics.
Figure 4 depicts the average level of risks per systemic risk channel: contagion risk, common exposure, and idiosyncratic risk.
Figure 4: Average levels of contagion (Equation (20)), common exposure (Equation (21)), and idiosyncratic risk
(Equation (22)).
The market-based contagion is the contagion due to
investors? sentiment, and the network is an estimate FEVD on volatility data.
For most of
the sample, we find that contagion had a bigger impact on the variance than common exposures.

Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: evidence from Germany

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

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Key Points:

Monetary asmmetries without (and with) price stickiness

Retrieved on:

Friday, April 19, 2024

Online, University, Public Security Section 9, Employment, Calibration, Small, Equity, Volume Ten, Research Papers in Economics, Policy, A.4, Communication, Crisis, Mass, Silvana Tenreyro, Business, Shock, Intuition, Business cycle, TFP, Volume, European Economic Review, Marginal value, SME, NBER, Forecasting, Depression, 3rd millennium, European Economic Association, Conceptual model, Journal of Monetary Economics, Insurance, Harmonization, Great Depression, CES, Economic Inquiry, Paper, Environment, Political economy, Journal of Financial Economics, MIT, University of York, COVID-19, Behavior, Review of Economic Dynamics, Rigid transformation, Website, Access to finance, Accounting, Working paper, Probability, Total, Appendix, Section 8, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Zero lower bound, Curve, Chapter, Cost, Nominal, Journal of Political Economy, Euro, PDF, ECB, Unemployment, Hoarding, STAT, Economic Policy (journal), Household, Canadian International Council, Social science, Government, Federal Reserve Bank, JEL, Journal, Textbook, Missing, Food, Private sector, A.5, Asymmetric, The Journal of Finance, Credit, Speech, Princeton University Press, Literature, NK, European Central Bank, Growth, Labour, Monetary economics, Loss aversion, Financial intermediary, Injection, Elasticity, Inventory, Subprime lending, Ben Bernanke, Finance, BIS, Phillips curve, International Economic Review, Money, London School of Economics, Marginal product of labor, Pruning, Marginal product, The Economic Journal, Rate, Aswath Damodaran, Risk, OECD, Competition (economics), Section 4, MIT Press, Consumption, Bond, Section 3, Yield curve, Loanable funds, Habit, Cobb–Douglas production function, Economy, Aarhus University, Financial economics, Section 2, Conference, Central bank, Chapter Two, Monetary policy, Capital, Hartman–Grobman theorem, CEPR, Framework, American Economic Review, Capital Markets Union, ZLB, Exercise, Liquidity, Interest, Intensive word form, Workshop, European Commission, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Population growth, B1, Response, Quarterly Journal, Community business development corporation, GDP, E31, Control, Journal of Economic Theory, Christian Social Union (UK), T2M, Hamper, Data, American Economic Journal, Aggregate, Konstantinidis, B.1, A.9, A.6, Remuneration, Civil service commission, EUR, Uncertainty, Motivation, A.7, Bank, GFC, Section 13, Motion, Reproduction, IMF, Staggers Rail Act, Abstract, Tale, Handbook, Asymmetry, Stanford University, Communications satellite

Key Points:

TRUX MARKS FIVE YEARS OF LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Pain, Aggregate, Vulcan Materials Company, Warehouse

Trux™, the leader in dump truck logistics technology, marks the 5th anniversary of the launch of its flagship product.

Key Points:

Trux™, the leader in dump truck logistics technology, marks the 5th anniversary of the launch of its flagship product.
"We've worked hand in hand with our customers over the years to continue improving the Trux platform," said Donald Lee, President of Trux."
Trux Deliver is part of the Trux delivery logistics platform for dispatching haulers, monitoring material delivery, optimizing plant efficiency, E-ticketing, and customer engagement.
For more information about Trux or the company's other dump truck logistics solutions, visit www.truxnow.com .

The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain reorientation

Retrieved on:

Saturday, February 10, 2024

Bank, Control, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Literature, Deutsche Bundesbank, Reconstruction, COVID-19, Monetary policy, Medical classification, Aggregate, Interest, Hail, Motion, Organization, WT, Policy, Smith, Elasticity, American Economic Review, Information, CHiPs, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Reproduction, Tagliapietra, Culture, Journal of International Economics, Section 3, European Commission, Communication, B16, Shock, NTM, European Chips Act, SSC, PHT, B17, Classification, Common, Tradability, Bank of Italy, Congressional Research Service, NT, Central bank, Private, Exercise, NIU, Labour, PDF, Website, European Parliament, Terrorism, Employment, B10, SUBST, Agricultural economics, F62, RTK, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Calibration, Agriculture, Foreign policy, Semiconductor, International Monetary Fund, Research Papers in Economics, Outline, Council, Openness, Bias, Economic system, European Council, Public policy, Deutsch, Statistics, GDP, Real, American Economic Journal, Table, Journal, YT, EAGLE, Household, Grossman, Science, Conference, Journal of Comparative Economics, Horse, SSRN, TC, Consumption, REA, F13, Section 2, University, Section 5, Legislation, Money, NTD, Central Bank of Ireland, Language, Capital, University of Limerick, Intermediate, CBI, Caselli, Macroeconomics, Crowding, Technical report, B14, Tax, Civil service commission, Growth, Commission, UNCTAD, Optimism, Politics, PIM, PX, Work, Social science, JEL, Government, Automation, HTT, Quarterly Journal, Canadian International Council, ECB, XT, METRO, ELAS, Credit, Bolt, Research, European Communities, American Journal, ArXiv, Unilateralism, Lerner, Motivation, International, C6, Committee, Security (finance)

We analyse the macroeconomic

Key Points:

We analyse the macroeconomic
effects of supply chain reorientation through localisation policies, using a global dynamic
general equilibrium model.
While arguments about comparative advantage, the potential forgone benefits of international specialisation and industry- and product-specific disruptions are familiar, there is less
analysis on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain changes resulting from localisation policies.
The large sensitivity of the global economy to the recent supply chain shocks suggests that
the international trade reconfiguration implied by localisation policies could also have sizable
impacts on key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment and inflation.
Thus, localisation focuses on the
goods in our model most closely related to global supply chains.
Retaliation also attenuates any positive effects from
reshoring on output and implies a reduction in the volume of overall international trade.
This finding calls for limiting the scope of reshoring, such as by focusing on vital goods that are
most susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
Either that, or the economic costs are considered a worthwhile trade-off for an increase
in security of supply, for example.
While arguments about comparative advantage, the potential forgone benefits of international specialisation and industry- and product-specific disruptions are familiar, there is less
analysis on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain changes resulting from localisation policies.
Recent supply chain shocks have had large effects, with disruptions in 2021 estimated
to have reduced euro area GDP by around two percent and doubled the rate of manufacturing producer inflation (Celasun et al., 2022).
To analyse this issue, we simulate a (partial) reshoring of production back to Europe in
a global dynamic general equilibrium framework.
Thus,
localisation focuses on the goods in our model most closely related to global supply chains.3 We
model reshoring through a direct change to the export goods? production-function parameters.
Since reshoring
effectively shortens the supply chain, the sum of markups along the chain falls.
This means that imports that are at the end of the supply chain (i.e.
In particular, our work relates to papers examining the potential for countries to reduce
their exposure to global supply chains.
(2021) demonstrate that reduced reliance on foreign inputs does not mitigate pandemicinduced contractions in labour supply.
(2021) find no evidence of a relationship
between global value chain integration and macroeconomic volatility.
This dynamic, along with factors such as natural disasters, climate-change
induced volatility and terrorism mean that supply chain disruptions could be a new normal
(Grossman et al., 2021).
Our work contributes to the literature providing dynamic general equilibrium analyses of
protectionist policies, in particular those using global macroeconomic models to quantify trade
policy changes.
(2008) analyse the effect of a rise in protectionism in response
to rising global trade imbalances.
Linde? and Pescatori (2019) find that although the macroeconomic costs of a
trade war are substantial, a fully symmetric retaliation is the best response.
(2020) consider a rich input-output structure and demonstrate that closer integration amplifies
the adverse effects of protectionist trade policies.
Several recent studies have also examined the economic effects of a global trade fragmentation.
First, we modify a dynamic general
equilibrium model of the global economy in order to analyse the transmission of localisation
policies.
This allows for a comprehensive treatment of cross-border macroeconomic interdependences and spillovers between the different regions.
4
There is, however, substantial cross-country heterogeneity in terms of impact, with small open economies
(SOEs) reliant on global supply chains more affected.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2903
7

Second, we are able to assess both long-run effects and the transition dynamics of localisation
policies.
Our model contains a detailed monetary block and captures inflation dynamics, which is a key
concern for supply chain reorientation.
Overall, our paper contains a careful analysis of the key aspects of the localisation debate,
including effects of localisation on domestic competition and efficiency.
Section 2 provides a brief overview of the model, the modifications to examine
global supply chain reorientation, some key details on the calibration and a brief discussion of
the nature of our exercise.
(2020) for discussions of the relative strengths and weaknesses of
trade and macroeconomic models in assessing large economic shocks.
2.1
Supply chain reorientation

Our analysis focuses on imported inputs used to produce goods for export, as the introduction
of localisation policies is in response to recent disruptions to global supply chains.
Since reshoring
effectively shortens the supply chain, the sum of markups along the chain falls.
Further to
these effects, engagement with global firms provides an opportunity for knowledge spillovers to
local firms (Criscuolo et al., 2017).
This finding calls for limiting the scope of reshoring, such as by focusing on vital goods that are
most susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
(B12)
Adjusting the share of local inputs in export goods, of course, affects prices and quantities all
along the supply chain.

Outlook Therapeutics® Receives FDA Agreement Under Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) for 90 Day Non-Inferiority Study, NORSE EIGHT, and Announces Private Placement of Up to $172 Million to Advance ONS-5010

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Additionally, Outlook Therapeutics entered into securities purchase agreements with certain institutional and accredited investors for up to $172 million in gross proceeds to fund the advancement of ONS-5010.

Key Points:

Additionally, Outlook Therapeutics entered into securities purchase agreements with certain institutional and accredited investors for up to $172 million in gross proceeds to fund the advancement of ONS-5010.
Outlook Therapeutics expects NORSE EIGHT topline results and resubmission of the ONS-5010 BLA by the end of calendar year 2024.
Outlook Therapeutics is working to address the open items and expects to resolve these comments prior to the expected completion of NORSE EIGHT.
The private placement is expected to provide up to $60 million in gross proceeds at closing, before deducting placement agent fees and offering expenses.

Best’s Market Segment Report: Farm Bureau Insurers Navigate Underwriting Challenges, Geographic and Business Concentration Issues

Retrieved on:

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Insurance, Professional Services, Aggregate, ALL, Policy, DPW, Organization, Marketing, News, AM Best, Growth

Most farm bureau exposures are centered on short- to medium-tailed personal lines business.

Key Points:

Most farm bureau exposures are centered on short- to medium-tailed personal lines business.
The report notes that despite overall premium growth, farm bureaus have displayed a trend of decreased market share in their primary lines of business.
One-third of the single-state farm bureaus have double-digit market shares in their top lines of business; just two have double-digit market shares in both of their two primary lines of business.
“Given these considerations, some farm bureaus achieve premium diversification by acquiring smaller insurers outside of their home territory,” Lewis said.

F3 Receives $8,224,747 from Exercise of Warrants

Retrieved on:

Friday, November 17, 2023

Aggregate, FUU, Nuclear energy, PLN, Exercise

Kelowna, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - November 17, 2023) - F3 Uranium Corp. (TSXV: FUU) (the "Company" or "F3") is pleased to announce that it has received total proceeds of $8,224,747 from the exercise of warrants, between May 12, 2023, and November 10, 2023.

Key Points:

Kelowna, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - November 17, 2023) - F3 Uranium Corp. (TSXV: FUU) (the "Company" or "F3") is pleased to announce that it has received total proceeds of $8,224,747 from the exercise of warrants, between May 12, 2023, and November 10, 2023.
The Aggregate proceeds received from the exercise of the warrants will be used for future exploration work on the Company's projects, corporate development and general corporate and working capital purposes.
"We are pleased to see over $8 million in warrants exercised.
Adam Giddens is the director of Torque but holds no securities in F3 and no securities will be issued in connection with Torque's engagement.

Community Health Systems, Inc. Announces Early Tender Results for Its 8.000% Senior Secured Notes Due 2026

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Hospitals, Health, Nursing, Other Health, Aggregate, Tender, Date, Note, Tender offer

The withdrawal deadline for the Tender Offer was 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on December 22, 2023, and has not been extended.

Key Points:

The withdrawal deadline for the Tender Offer was 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on December 22, 2023, and has not been extended.
The settlement date for 2026 Notes validly tendered as of the Early Tender Deadline and accepted for purchase is expected to occur on December 28, 2023 (the “Early Payment Date”).
However, because the aggregate principal amount of the 2026 Notes validly tendered and not validly withdrawn as of the Early Tender Deadline exceeds the Tender Cap, the Issuer does not expect to accept for purchase any 2026 Notes tendered after the Early Tender Deadline.
Holders must make their own decision as to whether to tender any of their 2026 Notes, and, if so, the principal amount of 2026 Notes to tender.

Genesee & Wyoming’s Rail Link, Inc. Switching Subsidiary Wins Five New Contracts across Multiple Industries and Geographies

Retrieved on:

Monday, November 27, 2023

Genesee & Wyoming Inc. (G&W) today announced that its railcar switching subsidiary, Rail Link, Inc., has secured five new contracts across the U.S. since September.

Key Points:

Genesee & Wyoming Inc. (G&W) today announced that its railcar switching subsidiary, Rail Link, Inc., has secured five new contracts across the U.S. since September.
“Rail Link’s value proposition and longstanding experience with a variety of commodities are clearly resonating with customers in multiple industries and geographies who are looking for safe, efficient and competitive transportation services,” says Jason Bradt, vice president of Rail Link operations.
More information about Rail Link, which was founded in 1996, and its suite of services can be found at https://gwrr.com/industrial-switching .
About Genesee & Wyoming Inc.
G&W owns or leases 116 freight railroads with 7,300 employees serving 3,000 customers.