House

• But the nearly two-year investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election dominated headlines – and revealed what has become Trump’s trademark denial of any wrongdoing.
• For Trump, the Russia investigation was the first “ridiculous hoax” and “witch hunt.” Mueller didn’t help matters.
• “While this report does not conclude that the president committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him,” the special counsel stated.

1. Obstruction of justice

• But Orentlicher wrote that obstruction of justice is “a complicated matter.” According to federal law, obstruction occurs when a person tries to impede or influence a trial, investigation or other official proceeding with threats or corrupt intent.
• But in a March 24, 2019, letter to Congress summarizing Mueller’s findings, then-Attorney General William Barr said he saw insufficient evidence to prove that Trump had obstructed justice.

So it was up to Congress to further a case against Trump on obstruction charges, but then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi declined, arguing that it would be too divisive for the nation and Trump “just wasn’t worth it.”

Read more:
Trump and obstruction of justice: An explainer

2. Why didn’t the full report become public?

• Charles Tiefer is a professor of law at the University of Baltimore and expected that Trump and Barr would do “everything in their power to keep secret the full report and, equally important, the materials underlying the report.” Tiefer was right.
• To keep Mueller’s report private, Barr invoked grand jury secrecy – the rule that attorneys, jurors and others “must not disclose a matter occurring before the grand jury.”

Trump and Barr also claimed executive privilege to further prevent the release of the report. Though it cannot be used to shield evidence of a crime, Tiefer explained, “that’s where Barr’s exoneration of Trump really helped the White House.”

Read more:
How Trump and Barr could stretch claims of executive privilege and grand jury secrecy

3. Alternative facts

• Perhaps the most disappointing finding, they argued, is that there are no known fixes to this problem.
• They found that fact-checking has little impact on changing individual beliefs, and more education only sharpens the divisions.
• And with that, they wrote, “the U.S. continues to inch ever closer to a public square in which consensus perceptions are unavailable and facts are irrelevant.”

  Read more:
  From 'Total exoneration!'

4. Trump’s demand for loyalty

• What sets Trump apart, Ouyang wrote, is his “exceptional emphasis on loyalty.” Trump expects personal loyalty from his staff – especially from his attorney general.
• “Trump values loyalty over other critical qualities like competence and honesty.
• Read more:
  Why does a president demand loyalty from people who work for him?

• Iran’s attack involved around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, all directed against Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
• But various options have been canvassed, including a strike of some sort against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.
• It has assassinated a number of nuclear scientists over the years, and launched a number of attacks on the country’s nuclear facilities.
• Believed to have been created through collaboration between US and Israeli intelligence, the Stuxnet malware was designed to severely disrupt centrifuge operations at Natanz and is thought to have set back Iran’s nuclear weapons programme by years.

Iran’s nuclear weapons history

• The country developed a civil nuclear programme under the late Shah, and in 1970 ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, committing the country not to possess nor develop nuclear weapons.
• During the late 1990s and early 2000s, Iran pursued a secret nuclear weapons development project, known as the Amad Plan.

• But it is thought that by then, Iran had the capacility to build a small and fairly crude nuclear device.
• A great deal of what we know about the development of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme stems from the 2018 Mossad raid.
• This revealed that work on weapons development was not entirely halted, and that Iran continued to work on improving its nuclear weapons capability.
• It has resumed operations at nuclear facilities previously prohibited under the terms of the agreement and, since February 2021, has prevented the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from effectively monitoring its nuclear sites.

Can an Iranian ‘bomb’ be prevented?

• First, Iran possesses the requisite expertise to develop nuclear weapons, which cannot be eradicated through bombing raids.
• While targeting Iranian facilities would temporarily hinder the programme, any setbacks would likely be short-lived.
• Destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz would be essential, but accessing these facilities would necessitate a significant number of airstrikes penetrating deep into Iranian territory, while circumventing or overpowering its air defence systems.

Christoph Bluth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• The U.S. has been the largest single donor backing Ukraine since Russian troops invaded the country in February 2022.
• Biden has asked Congress to approve another $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and other allies.
• While the Senate passed this foreign aid bill in February 2024, it is stalled in the House of Representatives.
• It is not entirely clear when and how the House will vote on Ukraine.
• Still, as a scholar of Eastern Europe, I think there are a few important reasons why the U.S. is unlikely to cut funding to Ukraine.

Republicans are divided over Ukraine aid

• Johnson is facing pressure to delay voting on the Ukraine foreign aid bill for a few reasons.
• One major factor is fighting between Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House.
• While some centrist Republican politicians support Ukraine funding and are pushing for a vote on the foreign aid package, others – hard-right Republicans – want a bill that prioritizes what they say are American interests, meaning more of a focus on domestic U.S. problems.

Delays on Ukraine benefit Putin

• As the House continues to stall on a vote, Ukraine is rationing ammunition and supplies.
• Delays with foreign aid to Ukraine give Putin time to move forward with plans to purchase ballistic missiles from Iran.
• Without foreign aid from the U.S., Ukraine will face a strategic disadvantage that could lead to Russia winning the war.

The US needs Europe to compete with China

• One factor is U.S. global power competition with China.
• Russian and Chinese leaders declared a military and political partnership days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
• They announced on April 9, 2024, that they want to find ways to strengthen their joint security work across Asia and Europe.
• U.S. political and military leaders have noted that supporting Ukraine and pushing back against Russia is one clear way to deter China from strengthening its global political power and military reach.
• The U.S. needs its long-standing allies in Europe to help push back against China – and deterrence is only as effective as the size of the force doing the deterring.

Foreign aid benefits US arms industry

• Most of America’s military aid to Ukraine consists of arms and ammunition from existing U.S. stockpiles.
• If Congress approves an additional $60 billion for Ukraine, more than half of this money would go to U.S. factories that manufacture missiles and munitions.
• In December 2023, Biden signed a U.S. defense policy bill that authorizes a record-high $886 billion in spending from July 2023 through June 2024.
• But it also allows for the purchasing of new ships, aircraft and other types of ammunition.

Americans continue to support Ukraine aid

A majority of Americans still favor U.S. support of Ukraine, though about half of Republicans said in December 2023 that the U.S. is giving too much money to the country. Even though politicians do not always follow public opinion, there are clear reasons why it is not in the U.S.’s best interests to cut funding to Ukraine.
Tatsiana Kulakevich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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