New

Potential output in times of temporary supply shocks

Retrieved on: 
Friday, January 19, 2024

This may reflect the fact that demand shocks have historically had a larger effect on the business cycle relative to supply shocks.

Key Points: 
  • This may reflect the fact that demand shocks have historically had a larger effect on the business cycle relative to supply shocks.
  • This box explores how accounting for the role of temporary supply shocks in determining potential output can restore the positive association of the output gap with high inflation after 2020.
  • Lastly, using information on these indicators, the box proposes complementary slack measures that better reflect inflationary pressures in times of temporary supply shocks.

Is America enduring a 'slow civil war'? Jeff Sharlet visits Trump rallies, a celebrity megachurch and the manosphere to find out

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Nor is its author, Jeff Sharlet, focused only on the ominous events of January 6, 2021, at the US Capitol.

Key Points: 
  • Nor is its author, Jeff Sharlet, focused only on the ominous events of January 6, 2021, at the US Capitol.
  • Sharlet believes that event is part of a “slow civil war” that threatens the future of the American republic.
  • Review: The Undertow: Scenes from a Slow Civil War – Jeff Sharlet (W.W. Norton)

American racism

  • Sharlet documents Belafonte’s lifelong struggle against racism, through a series of conversations.
  • Sharlet uses Belafonte to argue racism is at the heart of the American political and social malady.
  • Belafonte, a mainstream performer with cross-race appeal who still suffered intense discrimination, is Sharlet’s bearer of the bad news that racism resides in the core of American identity.
  • Read more:
    From sit-ins in the 1960s to uprisings in the new millennium, Harry Belafonte served as a champion of youth activism

‘The American religion of winning’

  • While race may be at the heart of a contested American identity, Sharlet believes evangelical religion is propelling the narrative of discontent and rebellion.
  • Or rather, a distorted branch within evangelical religion: the prosperity gospel, which teaches that faith and positive thinking attract health, wealth and happiness.
  • Wilkerson is portrayed as a very “cool” Christian, with a talent for grabbing headlines and fraternising with celebrity friends.
  • Prosperity follows him.” The American prosperity gospel is a materialist practice full of (sometimes unaware) poseurs, a bit like Trump himself.
  • His braggadocio at rallies appeals to his acolytes because it operates within “the American religion of winning”.

Evangelical religion and QAnon

  • As the apostle Paul wrote: “We walk by faith, not by sight” (KJV, 2 Corinthians 5:7).
  • Through QAnon, the pro-Trump conspiracy theory provides secular breadcrumbs for those seeking answers for the strange condition of the modern American nation-state.
  • QAnon is rooted in Gnostic philosophy, which held that reality is not what it appears (and was expelled from the mainstream of early Christianity’s canon).
  • QAnon adherents believe that, with the addition of the conspiracy theories supplied by QAnon, menacing forces and hopeful signs can be effortlessly revealed.
  • Read more:
    History repeats itself: From the New Testament to QAnon

A slow civil war


Hope cannot easily spring eternal, so grim are the signs of a slow civil war. Sharlet hints mass protest may be a democratic antidote to the American proto-fascism he fears.

  • In the end, Sharlet can only offer the slender hope that democratic practice, one small step at a time, might prevail through the will of sensible people.
  • But what if the problem went deeper than an internal culture war?
  • Read more:
    In Doppelganger, Naomi Klein says the world is broken: conspiracy theorists 'get the facts wrong but often get the feelings right'

Not unique to America

  • Certainly, Australia has experienced white racism – and violent, organised attacks on non-whites.
  • Alternatively, follow the unfolding story of the two policemen and a neighbour, gunned down in an ambush in Southern Queensland in 2022.
  • But it is harder to channel racist and religious fanaticism into an attack on the political state in Australia.
  • They will not be assured of America’s future role as a reliable world bastion of liberal democracy.
  • Nor can they be assured the United States will remain the politically stable centre of an increasingly unstable global economic system.


Ian Tyrrell received funding from the Australian Research Council's grant schemes on five occasions from 1996 to 2015.

Will Biden's ego bring Trump back to the White House?

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Is Biden’s evergreen ego — his scrappy Scranton Joe determination — outpacing his ability to win a tough election, much less govern a bitterly divided country until 2029?

Key Points: 
  • Is Biden’s evergreen ego — his scrappy Scranton Joe determination — outpacing his ability to win a tough election, much less govern a bitterly divided country until 2029?
  • Will there be dire consequences because the man who had been yearning to be president since he was 46 resists giving up the job at 81?

Biden’s impressive record

  • Condemnation of new eruptions of egomania in leaders with limited accomplishments — or malignant damage (does the aggrieved 45th president come to mind?)
  • He even reached out to those who disagreed with him, allowing him to forge deals with obstreperous Republicans and prickly Democrats.
  • He didn’t let denunciations prevent the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan or stop him from taking on a tortuous tightrope walk through the Gaza cataclysm’s horrors.

Ego or hubris?

  • High-achieving leaders are always at risk of crossing a line that separates self-confidence from over-confidence, ego from hubris.
  • Has Biden crossed this line as he hungers for a second term, leading him to potentially disastrous decisions?

Egos in the White House

  • George Washington combined sterling leadership qualities with the elitism of a slave-owning aristocrat (including the institution of exclusive presidential levees).
  • Theodore Roosevelt’s “progressive” activism went hand in hand with a desire “to be the corpse at every funeral, the bride at every wedding and the baby at every christening,” according to his daughter.
  • Franklin D. Roosevelt’s self-confidence was as crucial to his success as it’s been to Biden.
  • FDR’s 12 years in the White House saw monumental results, especially the New Deal’s transformation of the federal government’s social welfare responsibilities.

FDR/Biden similarities?

  • In 1944-45 — as both the war and his own life were nearing their end — Roosevelt undercut his own successes by sliding into hubris.
  • Increasing strains on his health created tensions between ego and pragmatism.
  • This paved the way for shifts to more unilateral policies and style that Roosevelt would almost certainly have bemoaned.
  • Ironically, their calculations will also be subject to the complex tensions between personal emotions and pragmatism.


Ronald W. Pruessen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

A beginner's guide to sustainable investing

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, January 2, 2024

We need to change our behaviour – and we need to do it fast.

Key Points: 
  • We need to change our behaviour – and we need to do it fast.
  • At the beginning of 2020, the global value of sustainable investment in major financial markets stood at US$35.3 trillion (£27.7 trillion).
  • And what should you consider when researching sustainable investments of your own?

Identifying a sustainable investment

  • Sustainable investing is an investment approach that considers environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria in addition to traditional financial factors.
  • Sustainable and ethical investing are sometimes used interchangeably.
  • Sustainable investing tends to focus more closely on ESG factors overall and how they are being applied within an organisation.
  • Don’t forget to investigate the companies on various investment and finance sites, as many have detailed information for listed companies.

Is it profitable?

  • You should consider its position in the market and any unique characteristics it has, while also checking whether the company’s leadership own a significant amount of shares.
  • If they do, then this demonstrates they believe in their company’s success and “have skin in the game”.
  • Check if the company pays out a dividend too, and remember to evaluate its planning for potential risks that could harm its reputation.

Minding your money

  • It is paramount for you to clarify your own values and goals before deciding where you invest your money.
  • This will help to determine if your interests align with the company’s ESG operations, performance and long-term strategies.
  • Or you could avoid any investments in an area that you disagree with – a strategy called “negative screening”.
  • You may also wish to consider an independent financial advisor for bespoke professional advice, especially if you have little investing experience.
  • Don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose.


The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

New Zealand newsrooms saw the rise of 'mob censorship' in 2023, as journalists faced a barrage of abuse

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, December 30, 2023

But high rates of abuse and threats directed at journalists put us at risk of “mob censorship” – citizen vigilantism that seeks to discipline journalism.

Key Points: 
  • But high rates of abuse and threats directed at journalists put us at risk of “mob censorship” – citizen vigilantism that seeks to discipline journalism.
  • Our recently published study documents newsworkers’ experiences of abuse and violence at New Zealand’s largest news organisation, Stuff.

A ‘festering heap of toxicity’

  • One respondent described her inbox as a “festering heap of toxicity”.
  • Overall, men tended to experience more “offline” threats (44% compared to 23% of women) and actual physical violence (16% men compared to 12% women).
  • These journalists represented the intersection of both gender and ethnicity – increasing their likelihood of being a target of abuse.

Targets for writing about race

  • Simply writing stories about race or racism triggered abuse for the writer, whatever their actual or perceived identity.
  • A self-described “white-passing Māori” explained how, after reporting on the dawn raid apology, she received messages calling her things like “white apologist bitch”.
  • Several Pākeha women were abused as racists or traitors for using te reo Māori in stories or writing about racism.
  • As one person said, “there are [controversial or divisive] stories I’d be less likely to pursue”, including to protect vulnerable sources.

Accepting abuse is not the answer

  • More than three-quarters of our respondents considered abuse and threats to be just part of the job.
  • There was, though, concern this feeds a “dangerous” and “outdated” professional culture that shuts down frank discussion and causes anxiety.
  • Furthermore, some participants were sceptical about the extent of employer commitment to addressing the problem, given the adoption of branding practices such as publishing photo bylines and email addresses, which tended to ramp up online abuse.

Muted watchdogs

  • Research from the United States suggests that receiving regular abuse entrenches journalists’ “us versus them” mentality.
  • Clearly, democracy itself is undermined by any intimidation or disincentive that stops journalists from performing their watchdog duties.
  • Supporting journalists to do their jobs as safely and free from abuse as possible needs to be the industry’s top priority for 2024.


Susan Fountaine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Vivek Ramaswamy is the millionaire millennial running for US president. Is he running towards a career low?

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, December 30, 2023

The 38-year-old political novice is one of the America’s wealthiest millennials and made his fortune as a biotech entrepreneur.

Key Points: 
  • The 38-year-old political novice is one of the America’s wealthiest millennials and made his fortune as a biotech entrepreneur.
  • The Harvard-educated son of Indian immigrants with a successful business pedigree presents himself as an anti-establishment outsider.
  • Associated Press reporter Bill Barrow says that Ramaswamy wants to be the candidate that “can return Trump’s ‘America First’ vision to the White House without the baggage”.

Trump’s biggest fan

  • Ramaswamy is a huge admirer of Donald Trump, calling him the “best president of the 21st century”.
  • But in a clear attempt to differentiate himself from the former president, he has sought to put forward policies that are more extreme than Trump’s agenda.

No more support for Ukraine

  • Writing on the American Conservative website he proclaimed a desire to follow the foreign policy path of Richard Nixon’s “cold and sober realism”.
  • Ramaswamy provided an illustration of how this would manifest itself under his presidency.
  • Citing the war in Ukraine and how his administration would negotiate a deal to end the conflict he wrote: “A good deal requires all parties to get something out of it.

Republican supporters?

  • His nationalistic populist foreign policy agenda and deeply conservative positions are now the hallmarks of the modern Republican party.
  • Yet polling ahead of the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses on January 15 2024 is not positive for Ramaswamy.
  • He is struggling to resonate with Republican voters and has been languishing in the polls, far behind Trump and other challengers.

Following in Trump’s shadow

  • Some observers have stressed Ramaswamy’s difficulties rest with his inability to consistently embody the outsider image that he wants to project.
  • So it looks like he is heading out of the race, with egg on his face.


Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud following the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Here's what investors need to know

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, November 7, 2023

In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, vast sums of money can be made or lost in the blink of an eye.

Key Points: 
  • In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, vast sums of money can be made or lost in the blink of an eye.
  • In early November 2022, the crypto exchange FTX was valued at more than US$30 billion.
  • They explain how and why this incredible collapse happened, what effect it might have on the traditional financial sector and whether you should care.

1. What happened?

  • FTX was where many crypto investors traded and held their cryptocurrency, similar to the New York Stock Exchange for stocks.
  • Bankman-Fried also founded Alameda Research, a hedge fund that invested in cryptocurrencies and crypto companies.
  • But in early November 2022, news outlets reported that a significant proportion of Alameda’s assets were a type of cryptocurrency released by FTX itself.
  • This left huge numbers of investors who bought cryptocurrencies through the exchange with no good way to get their money back.

2. Did a lack of oversight play a role?

  • Liquidity is the ability of a firm to sell assets quickly without those assets losing much value.
  • Solvency is the idea that a company’s assets are worth more than what that company owes to debtors and customers.
  • But the crypto world has generally operated with much less caution than the traditional financial sector, and FTX is no exception.
  • In addition, nearly 40% of Alameda’s assets were in FTX’s own cryptocurrency – and remember, both companies were founded by the same person.

3. Why is this a big deal in crypto?

  • Bank runs are rare in traditional financial institutions, but they are increasingly common in the crypto space.
  • Given that Bankman-Fried and FTX were seen as some of the biggest, most trusted figures in crypto, these events may lead more investors to think twice about putting money in crypto.

4. If I don’t own crypto, should I care?

  • While investors and regulators are still evaluating the consequences of this fall, the impact on any person who doesn’t personally own crypto will be minuscule.
  • In high-risk environments like crypto, it’s possible to lose everything – a lesson investors in FTX learned the hard way.

5. What does the trial reveal about the regulatory environment for crypto?

  • The trial of Bankman-Fried has brought attention to the ever-evolving and complex nature of cryptocurrency regulation and oversight.
  • At the conclusion of the case, Damian Williams, the federal prosecutor for the U.S. Justice Department, underlined the department’s dedication to fighting fraud, even in the relatively new crypto space.
  • Despite a recent crypto crackdown by the SEC, the U.S. continues to lag behind other nations in establishing comprehensive crypto regulations.
  • This is evident in the formal regulatory frameworks introduced by places such as the U.K. and the European Union.


The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

As the Israel-Gaza crisis worsens and the UN remains impotent, what are NZ’s diplomatic options?

Retrieved on: 
Friday, October 27, 2023

No situation exemplifies this more than what is happening now in Israel and Gaza.

Key Points: 
  • No situation exemplifies this more than what is happening now in Israel and Gaza.
  • The country’s representative to the UN claimed Guterres’ words amounted to “tolerating terrorism” and demanded he resign.

Western leadership failing

  • But as the humanitarian toll of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza became plain, the damage to Western leadership has been substantial.
  • China and Russia, backed by many states in the developing world, were able to take the diplomatic initiative, demanding an immediate ceasefire.
  • Simultaneously, Iran’s repressive clerical regime and its militant ally, Hezbollah, took the chance to project themselves as defenders of the Palestinians.

Risks of escalation

  • The government has provided NZ$5 million in humanitarian aid to Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.
  • It has also indicated its support for a “humanitarian pause” in Gaza.
  • Carolyn Schwalger, New Zealand’s permanent representative at the UN called “for the immediate and unconditional release of all [Israeli] hostages”.

Seeking peace

  • Israel’s iron grip on the provision of food, electricity and water to some 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza goes against the basic tenets of international law.
  • Collective punishment of civilians for the crimes of Hamas is not acceptable.
  • The long cycles of unwanted occupation, blockade, provocation, vendetta, violence and counter-violence, must eventually be broken.


The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Foreign policy has been missing from NZ's election campaign – voters deserve answers to these big questions

Retrieved on: 
Friday, September 29, 2023

But there has been one major election area missing the serious debate it needs: foreign policy.

Key Points: 
  • But there has been one major election area missing the serious debate it needs: foreign policy.
  • So here are some of the questions any incoming administration should be able to answer to the satisfaction of voters.

Defence and security

    • Having recently deepened military relationships with Australia and Japan, New Zealand needs to be clear about whether it will join “pillar two” of the AUKUS security pact between the US, UK and Australia.
    • Directly related to the AUKUS question are the hard military implications: who or what would New Zealand fight for?
    • Were the US and China to square off over Taiwan, with Australia (New Zealand’s only formal ally) drawn into such a conflict, would New Zealand send military help?

Ukraine and defence budgets

    • Does this continue or ramp up, or does the level of aid depend on what New Zealand’s allies do?
    • Further to that, what is New Zealand’s official position on what peace would look like for Ukraine?
    • Related to that is the uncertainty over US commitment to supporting Ukraine, given some Republican resistance.
    • More specifically, would any extra spending see the New Zealand Defence Force adopt militarised artificial intelligence technologies?

Trade and sanctions

    • Regional trade integration has been disrupted, with a shift towards unilateral trade policies and agreements.
    • Will New Zealand continue to support the use of sanctions outside the United Nations’ system (such as those imposed on Russia), and will it consider extending sanctions to countries for grievous human rights abuses (such as those imposed on Iran)?

Climate and foreign aid

    • New Zealand’s overall performance is rated “highly insufficient” by the independent Climate Action Tracker.
    • Where does New Zealand stand on mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund, the world’s largest multilateral fund dedicated to helping developing countries address the climate crisis, and will it increase pledged funding for it?
    • And would it support the creation of a regional development bank or cooperative aid projects with China?