Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.

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https://theconversation.com/indigenous-australians-supported-voice-referendum-by-large-margins-labor-retains-large-newspoll-lead-215663https://theconversation.com/indigenous-australians-supported-voice-referendum-by-large-margins-labor-retains-large-newspoll-lead-215663
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Tuesday, October 17, 2023
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ACT, Smoking, Climate change, COVID, Liberal, Poll Bludger, Newspoll, Ageing, Population, Human voice, Parliament, New Labour, AFD, One Nation, City, Coalition, Indigenous Australians, Justice, ABC, Whaling, Airline, Nursing, Film industry, Division of Lingiari, Guardian, Labour
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ISRAEL, AUSTRALIA, NEW SOUTH WALES, POLAND
Summary
Key Points: 
  • With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.
  • In Lingiari, where 40 of the population is Indigenous, “no” leads by a 56–44 margin.
  • The large wins for “no” in Lingiari and other seats with high Indigenous populations are caused by non-Indigenous people in those seats voting heavily “no”.
  • Most Labor seats have substantial support for right-wing parties, so this doesn’t mean “no” won Labor voters.
  • Dutton and Thorpe are negatively perceived for reasons other than the Voice, and Thorpe was opposing the Voice from the left.

Labor improved in pre-referendum Newspoll as Dutton sank

    • A Newspoll, conducted October 4–12 from a sample of 2,638, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since October 3–6.
    • Primary votes were 36% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings steady, Dutton down

    • Albanese’s ratings were steady since September at 46% approve, 43% disapprove (net +3), while Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -7.
    • Essential has a Voice question that had “no” ahead by 53–38, out from 49–43 in early October.

Victorian Resolve poll: Coalition gains but Labor still far ahead

    • While Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, I estimate this poll would give Labor a 57–43 lead, a three-point gain for the Coalition since August.
    • New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a 38–19 lead over Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier from the October sample of 553.

Liberal conservative alliance to replace authoritarian party in Poland


    I covered Sunday’s Polish election for The Poll Bludger. Poland does not have a major centre-left party. The authoritarian incumbent Law and Justice was defeated by a liberal conservative alliance. Strong results for the far-right AfD at German state elections and national polls were also covered.
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