Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead
With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.
- With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.
- In Lingiari, where 40 of the population is Indigenous, “no” leads by a 56–44 margin.
- The large wins for “no” in Lingiari and other seats with high Indigenous populations are caused by non-Indigenous people in those seats voting heavily “no”.
- Most Labor seats have substantial support for right-wing parties, so this doesn’t mean “no” won Labor voters.
- Dutton and Thorpe are negatively perceived for reasons other than the Voice, and Thorpe was opposing the Voice from the left.
Labor improved in pre-referendum Newspoll as Dutton sank
- A Newspoll, conducted October 4–12 from a sample of 2,638, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since October 3–6.
- Primary votes were 36% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).
Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings steady, Dutton down
- Albanese’s ratings were steady since September at 46% approve, 43% disapprove (net +3), while Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -7.
- Essential has a Voice question that had “no” ahead by 53–38, out from 49–43 in early October.
Victorian Resolve poll: Coalition gains but Labor still far ahead
- While Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, I estimate this poll would give Labor a 57–43 lead, a three-point gain for the Coalition since August.
- New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a 38–19 lead over Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier from the October sample of 553.
Liberal conservative alliance to replace authoritarian party in Poland
I covered Sunday’s Polish election for The Poll Bludger. Poland does not have a major centre-left party. The authoritarian incumbent Law and Justice was defeated by a liberal conservative alliance. Strong results for the far-right AfD at German state elections and national polls were also covered.