After 3 months of devastation in the Israel-Hamas war, is anyone 'winning'?

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His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.

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The Conversation

URL:

https://theconversation.com/after-3-months-of-devastation-in-the-israel-hamas-war-is-anyone-winning-220644

Retrieved on:

Sunday, January 7, 2024

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Geotags:

GRANDE, ISRAEL, IRAN, UNITED STATES, YEMEN, RUSSIA, UKRAINE, LEBANON, US

Summary

Key Points:

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.
Some 85% of Gazans have also been displaced and a quarter of the population is facing a famine, according to the United Nations.

Israel: limited success …

Israeli society is divided between those who want to prioritise negotiations to release the hostages and those who want to prioritise the elimination of Hamas.
Israel achieved an important symbolic success with the apparent targeted killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on January 2.
Israel still has US support in the UN Security Council, which has managed to pass only one toothless resolution since the war began.

…and facing a ‘day after’ conundrum

US President Joe Biden prefers a Gaza government led by a reformed Palestinian Authority, but Netanyahu has rejected this and has not articulated an alternative plan.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant this week outlined what seems to be his own plan for Gaza, involving governance by unspecified Palestinian authorities.
Whether or not that’s a fair judgement, it’s clear that internal divisions and indecision within his government are hindering Israel’s prosecution of the war.

Hamas – still standing

Hamas’ main achievement is that it is still standing.
To win, the militant group does not have to defeat Israel – it needs merely to survive the IDF onslaught.
Opinion polling also shows support for Hamas has risen from 12% to 44% in the West Bank and from 38% to 42% in Gaza in the past three months.

United States – weakness in dealing with Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken failed in his effort to persuade Israel to end the war by the start of the new year.
Moreover, divisions in the US may hurt Biden in the lead–up to the presidential election in November.
Republicans, taking their cue from Trump, are prioritising support for Israel and stopping the flow of migrants across the US-Mexico border.

United Nations – irrelevant

The UN has also failed in its mission of maintaining world peace. The only Security Council resolution on the war meant nothing, as Russia was pleased to point out. The recent UN General Assembly resolution illustrated Israel’s growing isolation, but has done nothing to change the course of the war. UN Secretary–General Antonio Guterres has been powerless to influence either Israel or Hamas.

Iran – watching for opportunities

But it takes its orders from Tehran, which still shows no sign of wanting to become directly involved in the war.
The bombings have been claimed by the Islamic State, which will likely make Iran more focused on its internal security than on assisting Hamas.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.