Is China preparing for a war over Taiwan, or has the west got it wrong? Here are the indicators

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At first glance however, it might appear that China is preparing for a long-term conflict with the US over Taiwan, the self-governing island of 24 million people, which the mainland claims.

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The ConversationThe Conversation
URL: 
https://theconversation.com/is-china-preparing-for-a-war-over-taiwan-or-has-the-west-got-it-wrong-here-are-the-indicators-220348https://theconversation.com/is-china-preparing-for-a-war-over-taiwan-or-has-the-west-got-it-wrong-here-are-the-indicators-220348
Retrieved on: 
Monday, January 8, 2024
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Tags: 
Economic development, Sale, Democratic Progressive Party, Government, Element, Perception, Knowledge, Houthi movement, KMT, Democrat, DPP, War, Pressure
Geotags: 
RED SEA, CHINA, WASHINGTON, MIDDLE EAST, JAPAN, TAIWAN, BEIJING, RUSSIA, UKRAINE, US, MOSCOW
Summary
Key Points: 
  • At first glance however, it might appear that China is preparing for a long-term conflict with the US over Taiwan, the self-governing island of 24 million people, which the mainland claims.
  • In his New Year’s address China’s president, Xi Jinping, stated that Taiwan would “surely be reunited” with China.
  • This is particularly significant as it comes days ahead of Taiwan’s national election on January 13.

Other key indicators

  • There are other key indicators to watch out for.
  • This is also a common theme among Chinese netizens as well, many of whom tend to be more nationalistic than the government is.

Technical battles

  • In doing so Biden signalled he may be prepared to appeared to edge away slightly from his hardline policies to reduce dependence on China’s technology.
  • His administration has not allowed US chip manufacturers to sell to China as well encouraging its allies to block the sale of hi-tech chip making exports.
  • Dutch manufacturer ASML’s cancellation of its shipments of chip-making machinery to China, was attributed to pressure from Washington.

Both sides have reservations

  • This was further underlined by several simulation exercises of a Taiwan conflict by the US military in 2020.
  • They discovered that nine out of ten of the possible outcomes ended in a US defeat.
  • So, a potential conflict with China poses a notable challenge for American power.
  • It’s clear that the present crises have provided an opportunity for China to gain understanding of current military challenges, as well as delivering some benefits.


Tom Harper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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