MOSCOW

• The bill is still subject to Senate approval and then needs to be signed into law by the US president, Joe Biden.
• But given the Senate’s previous approval of a similar measure and Biden’s vehemence of the need to support Ukraine, this should be a formality.
• Together with the morale boost for troops, this means that improvements in the situation on the front are likely – even before new US supplies will arrive.

Political will

• It is above all one of political will.
• The months-long delay in the US Congress was primarily an issue of domestic political posturing in a presidential election year.
• While their influence on funding decisions is much more limited, they could certainly create significant problems in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations.

Economic capacity

• There is some confidence that production capacity in the US and Europe, as well as in Ukraine, will significantly increase as of 2025.
• But even in an optimistic scenario of sustained investments in the defence industrial base of the collective west and increasing Russian economic and logistical difficulties to sustain its defence sector, a gamechanging shift in the balance of power is unlikely in the near future.

Russia holds the initiative, for now

• It also enjoys air superiority in light of depleted Ukrainian air defence systems, and has the operational momentum on the battlefield.
• If anything, Russia will now double down on its current offensive pushes.
• Given the continuing rhetoric of victory in Moscow and Kyiv, another forever-war might just have become more sustainable – for now.

Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

• In The Trial of Vladimir Putin, barrister Geoffrey Robertson answers that question by dramatising what might happen within the walls of a future courtroom.
• The question of whether Putin is guilty of aggression is fairly straightforward.
• Evidence would be needed that he is responsible in his role as a commander for actions carried out by subordinates.
• Instead, a special aggression tribunal would have to be established in the tradition of the trials of Nazis at Nuremberg.

• It is not pure fiction; it is speculation informed by Robertson’s experience.
• The details he imagines will bring these potential future trials to life for readers who are less familiar than he is with the inside of a courtroom.
• Does Robertson really need to tell us three times that any judgements should be uploaded to the internet?

Rhetorical devices

• Whether Putin should be tried even if absent is a hard question because there are arguments on both sides.
• Instead, he uses rhetorical tools such as hyperbole: if “international law is to have any meaning”, he writes, then a trial in the defendant’s absence “must be acceptable”.
• Robertson criticises this with the remark that it “entitles a man who has given orders to kill thousands to stand back and laugh”.

• It is that he gives the impression that the complexities do not exist.
• Dismissive language is a more general feature of his writing style.
• The implication is that Robertson is atypical among lawyers, someone who will sweep aside conventions and assumptions.
• Read more:
  An inside look at the dangerous, painstaking work of collecting evidence of suspected war crimes in Ukraine

The United Nations

• One of the bolder elements in the book is what Robertson says about the United Nations.
• One of them is that the Security Council could authorise, say, the United States to take military action against another nuclear-armed major power: is that outcome “obviously right”?
• The same logic might be used to justify expelling the United States, Britain and Australia, which were accused of unlawfully invading Iraq in 2003.
• Robertson compares the UN unfavourably with its predecessor, the League of Nations, which “expelled the USSR for attacking Finland”.

Rowan Nicholson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• For instance, low-income earners might engage in tax evasion by underreporting their income or overstating deductions to minimize tax liability.
• In 2023, a former offshore Chief Financial Officer, "CFO" received an 86-month prison sentence for concealing assets and income from tax authorities.
• After Coutts Bank made an initiative to comply with U.S. tax reporting requirements, The offshore CFO moved the funds to Hyposwiss.
• However, in the years that followed, the offshore CFO continued to mislead his accountant regarding his foreign accounts.

• FOX Nation will debut a new special entitled “Prisoner of Putin” on Thursday, March 28th, one day before the one-year anniversary of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s arrest and detainment in Russia.
• The special will provide an in-depth look into Gershkovich’s life and his courage and resilience throughout the last year.
• FOX Nation is a direct-to-consumer on-demand streaming service designed to complement the FOX News Channel experience with a members-only destination for its most passionate and loyal super fans.
• Morning Consult recently named FOX Nation as one of the top 10 fastest-growing brands of 2023 among Gen Z adults, with the platform placing in the top 15 overall.