Is Japan joining AUKUS? Not formally – its cooperation will remain limited for now

• With Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visiting Washington this week, rumours have circulated that Japan might soon join the AUKUS security pact between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom.
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has downplayed the suggestion, indicating this is not something that will happen soon.

Partner on the ‘Pillar II’ level

• For some time now, Japan was talked about as a potential fourth partner in the agreement.
• The Pillar I level of the partnership involves the US transferring nuclear submarine propulsion technology to Australia.
• This level focuses on the sharing of technology related to artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, hypersonic missiles and precision guided munitions.
• Nonetheless, Japan has strong capabilities and critical skills in the areas covered by the Pillar II level of cooperation.

Complications to AUKUS expansion

• This includes ensuring the drafting and implementation of procedural mechanisms to allow technology transfers to take place between the members.
• No one inside AUKUS wants to mess with the dynamics that have enabled such close and trusted ties.
• In addition, there is a reluctance to go beyond three core members of AUKUS until the envisioned technology sharing is proven to work.
• Read more:
  Will the AUKUS deal survive in the event of a Trump presidency?

A delicate balancing act

• This is demonstrated in the trilateral arrangements between them, as well as the quadrilateral ties with India (known as the Quad).
• Japan is also boosting its ties with the Philippines, South Korea and the United Kingdom.
• So, it is a delicate balancing act to encourage Japanese engagement in external security arrangements, while being mindful the country still has a constitution that binds it to a strictly defensive and relatively benign military posture.

John Blaxland is director of the ANU's North America Liaison Office, based in Washington DC, and has been attending the US Navy's Sea Air Space Conference in National Harbor, Maryland.