Israel hits back at Iran: How domestic politics is determining Israeli actions

• Notably, Israel’s strike against Iran appears to have been more symbolic than substantive.
• Nevertheless, the overnight Israeli strike is the latest escalation in tensions between the two countries.

Reputations at stake

• To do otherwise would have damaged the Iranian government’s reputation among both its allies and its citizens.
• But the form that Iranian retaliation took is a key indication of Iran’s intentions.
• Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system and U.S. military bases in the region made the likely impact of Iran’s attack minimal.

The proxy dilemma

• Since the Iranian Revolution, Iran, through the Quds Force and its predecessors, has actively courted several proxy groups in the Middle East to increase its strategic influence.
• Hezbollah came into existence in response to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon in the 1980s, and received extensive support from Iran.
• While these proxy groups have increased Iran’s political influence and strategic options in the Middle East, they can simultaneously be a burden for the country’s leadership because they aren’t under Iran’s complete control.
• For Iran, this presents a strategic dilemma.

A coalition of many

• The 2022 elections returned a fractured Knesset, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was only able to form a coalition government that included several far-right parties.
• The small size of his majority meant that far-right partners were able to demand concessions to support his government.
• The government’s inability to negotiate a release for the remaining hostages held by Hamas remains a festering wound in Israeli politics.
• National Unity’s leader, Benny Gantz, formed a war cabinet with Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant to direct the war effort.

Netanyahu’s hand forced?

• The smaller far-right parties in Netanyahu’s coalition that are outside the war cabinet, however, likely forced the prime minister’s hand.
• National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the ultra-nationalist Otzma Yehudit party, has stated that Israel needs to “go crazy” in its response.

What’s next?

• It eliminated a leader of the Quds Force, and Iran’s retaliation did not manage to breach the defences of Israel or its allies.
• Now, the world waits to see if Israel’s latest strike against Iran leads to a broader regional escalation.

James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.