Mid Bedfordshire

• The unpopularity of London Labour Mayor’s Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ultra low emissions zone (Ulez) undoubtedly contributed to the Conservative defence of Uxbridge.
• But the party’s losses in Somerton and Frome in Somerset, and Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, are notable.
• Read more:
  Boris Johnson resignation: why Rishi Sunak can't afford to lose more than one of three impending byelections

Historic Labour win

• Selby and Ainsty was the Conservatives’ second byelection loss to Labour during this term, and it was significant.
• The result was worse for the Conservatives than their previous loss to Keir Starmer’s party in Wakefield.
• That saw “only” a 12.6% swing to Labour, barely guaranteed to give the opposition an overall majority.

Echoes from history

• This is all reminiscent of when the Conservatives last crashed out of office in 1997.
• During the 1992-97 parliament, the Conservatives lost all eight seats they defended in byelections: four to the Liberal Democrats, three to Labour and one to the SNP.
• For a while, some clung to the hope that Sunak and Starmer’s popularity ratings were close enough to give them a chance.

What the future holds for the Conservatives

• Under the Recall of MPs Act, only 10% of constituents need to sign a petition to generate the contest.
• An autumn byelection would be most unwelcome for a Conservative Party attempting a relaunch at its conference in Manchester in October.
• And at some point, Nadine Dorries will end the longest resignation in political history and step down from her Mid-Bedfordshire seat.
• Two is that the Conservatives have one final budget with which to put more money in people’s pockets.