Epic snow from all those atmospheric rivers in the West is starting to melt, and the flood danger is rising
Retrieved on:
Monday, April 17, 2023
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This region was once home to the largest freshwater lake west of the Rockies.
Key Points:
- This region was once home to the largest freshwater lake west of the Rockies.
- But the rivers that fed Tulare Lake were dammed and diverted long ago, leaving it nearly dry by 1920.
- Communities there and across the West are preparing for flooding and mudslide disasters as record snow begins to melt.
How extreme were this year’s atmospheric rivers?
- This year, in a three-week window from about Dec. 27, 2022, to Jan. 17, 2023, we saw nine atmospheric rivers make landfall, five of them categorized as strong or greater magnitude.
- In all, the state experienced 31 atmospheric rivers through the end of March: one extreme, six strong, 13 moderate and 11 weak.
- The region has had 11 moderate atmospheric rivers – double the average of 5.5 – and an additional four strong ones.
- Overall, California has about double its normal snowpack, and some locations have experienced more than double the number of strong atmospheric rivers it typically sees.
What risks does all that snow in the mountains create?
- There is a lot of snow in the Sierra Nevada, and it is going to come off the mountains at some point.
- The closest year for comparison in terms of the amount of snow would be 1983, when the average statewide snow water content was 60.3 inches in May.
- Tulare Lake is an indication of just how extreme this year has been, and the risk is rising as the snow melts.
The transition from extreme drought in 2022 to record snow was fast. Is that normal?
- 2019 was another above-average year in terms of precipitation in California, but after that we saw three straight years of drought.
- We went from 13 strong or greater magnitude atmospheric rivers in 2017 to just three in 2020 and 2021, combined.
Are atmospheric rivers becoming more intense with a warming climate?
- Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow corridors of water vapor in the sky that typically start in the tropics as water evaporates and is pulled poleward by atmospheric circulations.
- That can increase the capacity of atmospheric rivers, with more water vapor resulting in stronger storms.
- Research by some of my colleagues at Scripps Institution of Oceanography also suggests that California will see fewer storms that aren’t atmospheric rivers.
- But the state will likely see more intense atmospheric rivers as temperatures rise.