Expert Panel Upgrades Home Price Growth Outlook, Cites Supply Constraints and Lower Mortgage Rates
WASHINGTON, Feb. 29, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- A panel of housing experts expects annual national home price growth of 3.8% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, according to the Q1 2024 Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC. The HPES polls over 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI).
- The panel's latest estimates of national home price growth are higher than last quarter's expectations of 2.4% for 2024 and 2.7% for 2025.
- Additionally, an increased share of panelists indicated higher upside risk to their home price forecasts – 41 percent in Q1 2024 compared to 26 percent in Q4 2023 – with a majority citing ongoing housing supply constraints and lower mortgage rates as the basis for that belief.
- The panel also projects a median 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6% by the end of 2024.
- "If mortgage rates move toward the panel-predicted six percent median rate by the end of 2024, we would expect this to be supportive of continued home price growth, particularly given the persistent supply-side challenges facing the housing market."