The green energy surge still isn't enough for 1.5 degrees. We'll have to overshoot, adapt and soak up carbon dioxide
The International Energy Agency this week released its latest net zero roadmap, showing it was still just possible to hold global heating to 1.5℃.
- The International Energy Agency this week released its latest net zero roadmap, showing it was still just possible to hold global heating to 1.5℃.
- In the last two years, we’ve seen major global investment in clean energy, spurred on by energy independence concerns raised by the war in Ukraine, as well as intensifying extreme weather.
- Even so, it’s unlikely to actually keep us under 1.5℃, the globally agreed target to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Why is it so hard?
- Since then, the world has emitted one trillion tons of carbon dioxide, which is two-thirds of the carbon budget.
- That is, the amount of permissible emissions that would feasibly allow us to limit global warming to 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial temperature.
- At the beginning of this year, the world had just 380 billion tons of carbon dioxide left in the carbon budget.
- Global emissions have been about 40 billion tonnes a year over the past few years with no sign of decline.
- The world still has an estimated 1.4 billion internal combustion engine cars, which run on petrol, diesel or gas.
- The goal is to rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuels, with any unavoidable emissions captured and permanently sequestered.
Why the positive forecast?
- So why is the International Energy Agency still floating the possibility of stabilising the climate at 1.5℃?
- This will take the creation of a whole new industry of atmospheric greenhouse gas removal and decades of effort.
- Read more:
Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows.
What does this mean?
- If humanity blows past the target of 1.5℃ and keeps warming the planet, it doesn’t mean we just give up.
- We’re only at 1.2℃ now, and extreme weather, fire activity and other damage from climate change is coming thick and fast.
- Now we have to adapt to the rapidly evolving climate, with new policies, investment and preparedness.
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