Local elections: what does a good night look like for Keir Starmer's Labour or Rishi Sunak's Conservatives?
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Tuesday, May 2, 2023
These are huge contests, covering 237 councils, of which 151 are holding all-out elections, with every seat up for grabs.
Key Points:
- These are huge contests, covering 237 councils, of which 151 are holding all-out elections, with every seat up for grabs.
- In the other 86, one-third of the seats are being fought.
- The Conservatives have most to lose since the poll includes “shire” councils in rural locations, which are traditionally fertile Tory territory.
What does a good night look like?
- Theresa May was prime minister and was battling to get her Brexit deal through parliament after losing her majority in an ill-fated election two years previously.
- Starmer needs a swing the size of Tony Blair’s in 1997 to win an outright majority in the next general election.
- For the Conservatives, keeping losses well below 700 seats would be a triumph of sorts, an indication Rishi Sunak is still in the game.
Which are the regions to look out for?
- Labour could regain northern councils that had been lost to no overall control in places where the party has also lost parliamentary seats in recent years.
- This could indicate a fight back in the areas that delivered such a devastating loss for Labour in the last general election.
- Look out for Dacorum, West Berkshire and East Cambridgeshire councils which could all fall to Ed Davey’s party.
Will voter ID change things?
- The Electoral Reform Society thinks it has been introduced to solve a problem of impersonation that does not exist.
- Take up for voter authority certificates, available to those not holding appropriate ID, has been low.
- That’s unless you think bins, burials, green spaces, housing, leisure facilities, libraries, planning, schools and social services are all trivial.