Sample size determination

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• Poll results are often used to project the makeup of parliament, despite them being snapshots of the polling period rather than reliable predictions.
• Indeed, the accuracy of past political polls in New Zealand has been open to question.
• Here are ten things to think about when evaluating a political poll.

1. Sample size

• Bigger samples lead to less random variation in the results – that is, the differences between the results from a sample of the population compared with the whole population.
• But bigger samples are more expensive to collect, and they don’t make up for poor sampling design or polling process.

2. Target population

It should be clear which group of people the results are about. Results about sub-groups (for example, women in a certain age group) should be treated more cautiously, as these are associated with smaller samples and therefore greater error.

3. Sampling method

• It determines how well the poll sample matches the target population (such as people intending to vote).
• Polls should be conducted with an element of choosing people at random (random sampling), as this achieves the best representation of the population.

4. Sample weighting

• Weighting cannot be used, however, to correct unknown differences between the poll sample and the total population.
• The distribution of population characteristics, like gender and age, are known through the census, and can be adjusted in the sample with weighting.

5. Poll commissioner and agency

• Or there may be a hidden agenda, such as timing a poll around particular events.
• Equally, we can be more confident in poll results when the polling agency has a strong track record of good practice, particularly if they follow national and international codes of best practice.

6. Poll timing

Knowing when the poll was conducted, and what was happening at the time, is important. Poll results describe public opinion at the time the poll was conducted. They aren’t a prediction of the election outcome.

7. Margin of error

• But the margin of error does not account for other sources of error in poll results, including those due to poor sampling methods, poorly worded questions or poor survey process.
• The total error in a political poll consists of these other sources of error as well as the sampling error measured through the margin of error.
• Unless a poll is perfectly conducted (which is highly unlikely), the total survey error will always be larger than the margin of error alone would suggest.

8. Precise question wording

Responses to a poll question can vary markedly depending on how it is asked. So, pay attention to what specifically was asked in the poll, and whether question phrasing could influence the results.

9. Percentage of ‘don’t knows’

Large percentages of “don’t know” responses can indicate questions on topics that poll respondents aren’t well informed on, or that are difficult to understand. For example, the percentage of “don’t know” responses to preferred prime minister questions can be as high as 33%.

10. The electoral context

The composition of parliament is determined by both general and Māori electorate results. Pay attention to the Māori electorates, where polls are often harder to conduct. Māori electorate results are important, as candidates can win the seat and bring other MPs (proportionate to their overall party vote) in on their “coat tails”.

Finally – watch the trends

• Nicole Satherley works for iNZight Analytics which designs and undertakes research, but not market or polling research.
• Andrew Sporle works for and owns shares in iNZight Analytics and Matau Analytics which design and undertake research, but not market or polling research.

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