Kherson Oblast

• Initially, there were questions on how the dam collapsed or who was to blame, but mounting evidence indicates that the dam was deliberately breached by Russia.
• In my view, as a career U.S. special forces officer, the simplest answer is most often correct and provides the most likely explanation for the dam’s destruction.
• It’s my belief that Russia deliberately destroyed the dam to defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive that it believed was imminent.

An age-old military strategy

• Quite to the contrary, it is an effective defensive technique that dates back hundreds, if not thousands, of years.
• In another instance, the Chinese military breached levees along the Yellow River in 1938 to slow the Japanese advance.

How Ukraine has used the same tactic

• The Ukranians also deliberately flooded the Zdvyzh and Teteriv rivers to make them unfordable and bolster their defense of Kyiv.
• The destruction of the Irpin dam was fairly limited: 50 of the small village of Demydiv’s 750 homes were destroyed.
• There is also a threat of floating landmines and an ongoing challenge to provide drinking water to thousands.

How the flooding supports Russia’s defense

• In such a posture, the Russian defense has some advantages.
• Defenders fight from fortified positions, whereas attackers must advance from exposed, vulnerable positions while overcoming obstacles, such as flooded streets.
• The defender, by contrast, must spread its forces across the battlefield, if it cannot correctly anticipate the point of attack.

A natural defense

• Nor in my view could they correctly anticipate the location of Ukraine’s main counteroffensive effort.
• It also created a humanitarian crisis that Russia no doubt anticipated, and has further leveraged to its tactical advantage.
• Sadly, the flooding of the Dnieper river will likely be more devastating and last much longer.