Law and Justice

Poland votes for change after nearly a decade spent sliding towards autocracy – but tricky coalition talks lie ahead for Donald Tusk

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, October 17, 2023
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Now it seems the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is on the way out of government.

Key Points: 
  • Now it seems the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is on the way out of government.
  • Although PiS came away with the highest percentage of votes (35.38%), a coalition of opposition parties looks more likely to end up in power.
  • The Civic Coalition (KO), an alliance of centre-right parties led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, has secured 157 seats in parliament.

The return of Donald Tusk

    • Tusk has vowed to turn back towards European Union partners and for Poland to keep pace with them on social issues, such as by introducing same-sex marriage.
    • Women, who have seen their rights to abortion care ultimately vanish under PiS, can be hopeful of a shift back towards liberalisation under a Tusk administration.
    • Tusk has said PiS has “dehumanised” too many people during its time in power.
    • As Tusk himself put it: “It’s the end of the evil times”.

The demise of PiS

    • The PiS years have been characterised by a gradual dismantling of Poland’s liberal democratic order.
    • Donald Tusk and KO have won because Poles did not want to become an electoral autocracy, as forecast in the event of an unprecedented third term for PiS.
    • PiS attempted to push immigration up the agenda during the campaign rather than tackling these issues head on.

Not quite a done deal…

    • Andrzej Duda, president of the Polish Republic (and a PiS member), needs to decide who should form a government.
    • Following established tradition, his first choice will be PiS because it was the most voted for party, even if it doesn’t have a majority.
    • If Duda fails to find a government after three attempts, he will have to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections.

From France to Italy, Hungary to Sweden, voting intentions track the far-right's rise in Europe

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, October 4, 2023
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A little over a year since leader of Fratelli d'Italia Georgia Meloni rose to power in Italy, the latest data spells out a clear message: she is not the only ultraright politician surfing on voters’ anxieties. In fact, we may be entering a new cycle of far-right extremism across the continent, with heavy stakes for the next European elections in June 2024.A far right momentLast year, in France, Marine Le Pen won an all-time record-high 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election.

Key Points: 


A little over a year since leader of Fratelli d'Italia Georgia Meloni rose to power in Italy, the latest data spells out a clear message: she is not the only ultraright politician surfing on voters’ anxieties. In fact, we may be entering a new cycle of far-right extremism across the continent, with heavy stakes for the next European elections in June 2024.

A far right moment

    • Last year, in France, Marine Le Pen won an all-time record-high 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election.
    • In Hungary, Fidesz took 54% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, landing Viktor Orbán a fourth consecutive term.
    • In Eastern and central Europe, the far right is on the rise in Estonia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria.

Multiple layers of resentment

    • Their nationalist and anti-establishment rhetoric resonates with growing political discontent among citizens, along with popular demand for authoritative and strong leadership.
    • According to the region, ultraright politicians have taken a variety of stances toward Russia.
    • The European elections of June 2024 are likely to see the far right entrench itself more deeply into the political landscape.

Voting intentions and seat projections for far-right parties in Europe

    • Marine Le Pen has already begun a diplomatic blitz to rally her European far-right allies, and recently launched an offensive against Giorgia Meloni, her main rival for far-right leadership in Europe.
    • In Hungary, Viktor Orbán is set to secure about his 2019 level of support, but is still isolated within the European far right.

Cutting cordon sanitaires

    • In many countries, far-right parties have achieved a strategic equilibrium between government credibility and radical politics.
    • Soon Austria may be added to the list, and possibly Belgium where the growing popularity of the Vlaams Belang is putting the country’s cordon sanitaire under greater strain.
    • Such contagion has been most visible in the co-optation of far right’s restrictive immigration policies in those countries.

How European parliamentary blocs could evolve

    • Other far right, pro-Russian parties such as Orban’s Fidesz remain with the Non-Inscrits (unaffiliated).
    • Bolstered by her success in Italy, Giorgia Meloni is seeking a rapprochement with the European People’s Party (EPP), which would pull the ECR toward the centre of European politics.
    • Meloni’s strategic downplay of European and immigration issues certainly opens the door to a broader alliance of the European right.
    • The chair of the European parliamentary group, Manfred Weber, has clearly indicated that future EPP allies should respect the rule of law and unequivocally support Ukraine, singling out the Polish PiS for its illiberal drift.

Ukraine war: what young Poles think about their nation's role – here's what our survey shows

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, August 1, 2023
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Symbols of Polish support for Ukraine and Ukrainians remain visible in the streets, such as flags and signs in shop windows.

Key Points: 
  • Symbols of Polish support for Ukraine and Ukrainians remain visible in the streets, such as flags and signs in shop windows.
  • To find out more about social attitudes, we surveyed more than 2,000 young Poles, aged 16-34, in March 2022 and again in May-June 2023.
  • Those young people who self-identify as Catholic in our survey are 10% more likely than others to desire their return to Ukraine when this becomes possible.
  • There has been a fundamental shift when it comes to the stance that young Poles think their government should adopt in the war in Ukraine.
  • Those supporting the far-right (roughly 20% of our respondents) are most likely to oppose the sending of weapons.

Rise of the far right

    • The impending election campaign is likely to bring a new degree of conflict into Polish politics.
    • Félix Krawatzek currently is the PI on an ERC funded research project entitled "Moving Russia(ns): Intergenerational Transmission of Memories Abroad and at Home (MoveMeRU)".