Sweden Democrats

From France to Italy, Hungary to Sweden, voting intentions track the far-right's rise in Europe

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Wednesday, October 4, 2023
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A little over a year since leader of Fratelli d'Italia Georgia Meloni rose to power in Italy, the latest data spells out a clear message: she is not the only ultraright politician surfing on voters’ anxieties. In fact, we may be entering a new cycle of far-right extremism across the continent, with heavy stakes for the next European elections in June 2024.A far right momentLast year, in France, Marine Le Pen won an all-time record-high 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election.

Key Points: 


A little over a year since leader of Fratelli d'Italia Georgia Meloni rose to power in Italy, the latest data spells out a clear message: she is not the only ultraright politician surfing on voters’ anxieties. In fact, we may be entering a new cycle of far-right extremism across the continent, with heavy stakes for the next European elections in June 2024.

A far right moment

    • Last year, in France, Marine Le Pen won an all-time record-high 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election.
    • In Hungary, Fidesz took 54% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, landing Viktor Orbán a fourth consecutive term.
    • In Eastern and central Europe, the far right is on the rise in Estonia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria.

Multiple layers of resentment

    • Their nationalist and anti-establishment rhetoric resonates with growing political discontent among citizens, along with popular demand for authoritative and strong leadership.
    • According to the region, ultraright politicians have taken a variety of stances toward Russia.
    • The European elections of June 2024 are likely to see the far right entrench itself more deeply into the political landscape.

Voting intentions and seat projections for far-right parties in Europe

    • Marine Le Pen has already begun a diplomatic blitz to rally her European far-right allies, and recently launched an offensive against Giorgia Meloni, her main rival for far-right leadership in Europe.
    • In Hungary, Viktor Orbán is set to secure about his 2019 level of support, but is still isolated within the European far right.

Cutting cordon sanitaires

    • In many countries, far-right parties have achieved a strategic equilibrium between government credibility and radical politics.
    • Soon Austria may be added to the list, and possibly Belgium where the growing popularity of the Vlaams Belang is putting the country’s cordon sanitaire under greater strain.
    • Such contagion has been most visible in the co-optation of far right’s restrictive immigration policies in those countries.

How European parliamentary blocs could evolve

    • Other far right, pro-Russian parties such as Orban’s Fidesz remain with the Non-Inscrits (unaffiliated).
    • Bolstered by her success in Italy, Giorgia Meloni is seeking a rapprochement with the European People’s Party (EPP), which would pull the ECR toward the centre of European politics.
    • Meloni’s strategic downplay of European and immigration issues certainly opens the door to a broader alliance of the European right.
    • The chair of the European parliamentary group, Manfred Weber, has clearly indicated that future EPP allies should respect the rule of law and unequivocally support Ukraine, singling out the Polish PiS for its illiberal drift.

King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden: 50 years of banal royalism

Retrieved on: 
Friday, September 1, 2023
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People around the world observed, in close detail, how the UK’s royal institution consolidates its authority by using ritual to link to the past.

Key Points: 
  • People around the world observed, in close detail, how the UK’s royal institution consolidates its authority by using ritual to link to the past.
  • Over the weekend of September 15 and 16 2023, Sweden will celebrate its own royal occasion, the golden jubilee of King Carl XVI Gustaf.
  • This may be of interest to the British royal family if their popularity continues to decrease over time.

Towards a low-key monarchy

    • Of the nine remaining hereditary monarchies in Europe, the Swedish monarchy has the least power and resources.
    • Many members of the Social Democratic party were pushing for the country to become a republic, while the more conservative voices sought to retain the monarchy.
    • Instead, it would remain a constitutional monarchy, with the Bernadotte dynasty holding the throne.
    • By doing away with this antiquated tradition of male-preference primogeniture, the monarchy was aligned with modernity.

An ordinary (royal) family

    • The Year with the Royal Family has been part of Christmas scheduling on public service TV since 1977.
    • A typical scene from 1985 features the family making sausages in the palace kitchen – the king in a red cardigan, the children in matching white aprons.
    • These media portrayals have sought to underline quite how ordinary the royal family is and how the public might identify with them.
    • In his 1995 book, Banal Nationalism, British social psychologist Michael Billig unpicks how nationalism is reproduced in everyday life via ordinary, unremarkable reminders.
    • Similarly, we might talk about “banal royalism” to describe how closely tied the Swedish royal institution is to the private lives of ordinary citizens – their superiority accentuated by their proximity to normal people.