Survation

• Polls have consistently shown that the incumbent mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, appears to be on track to win a third term in office at the upcoming mayoral elections on May 2.
• One poll we commissioned as part of our Polling London series in October 2023 put Khan ahead of his Conservative rival, Susan Hall, by 50 points to 25 (a 25-point lead for Khan).

Low satisfaction ratings

• Khan’s lead in the mayoral race is not built on high levels of satisfaction with his previous performance in the role.
• Khan’s rather lacklustre approval ratings make his lead appear rather more shallow.
• This could be due to Khan’s decision, which came into effect in August 2023, to expand the ultra low emissions zone (Ulez).
• This helps to explain why Khan is doing better in the mayoral race than his satisfaction ratings might suggest.

Policing, crime and personal safety

• A recent poll, commissioned by the Mile End Institute, where we are both based, and fielded by YouGov from February 12-19 2024, found that 52% of Londoners felt policing, crime and personal safety was one of the most important issues currently facing the city and its population.
• Meanwhile 46% opted for the provision of affordable quality homes and 37% for healthcare provision in the capital.
• The next most important issue, according to Londoners, was the affordability of public transport, which 25% of respondents highlighted.
• Londoners’ concerns about policing, crime and personal safety are likely, at least in part, to be a reflection of their low levels of trust in the Metropolitan police service.

Farah Hussain was a Labour Party local councillor in the London Borough of Redbridge 2014-2022. Elizabeth Simon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.