Over the past six years, governments proposed launching over one million satellites, but where will they all go?
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Wednesday, November 8, 2023
United Kingdom, Time, ITU, International Telecommunication Union, Marshall Islands, Policy, World Radiocommunication Conference, United Nations, Climate, SpaceX, Ship, Conference, Radio, CubeSat, Kohelet Policy Forum, OneWeb, Risk, File, Orbit, Burn, UN, Aircraft, Communications satellite, Television, Science
In September 2021, Rwanda announced that it was planning to launch over 300,000 satellites.
Key Points:
- In September 2021, Rwanda announced that it was planning to launch over 300,000 satellites.
- Three months later, a Canadian company, having previously launched two dozen CubeSats, said it would launch an additional 100,000.
- And SpaceX, which has already launched around 5,000 satellites, now has plans for over 60,000 more.
One million filings
- In a new Policy Forum article published in Science, we found that, between 2017 and 2022, countries collectively made filings for over one million satellites across more than 300 separate systems of multiple satellites working together, known as constellations.
- A closer look shows that the latter option is more likely.
Congested orbits
- If even 10 per cent of the filed-for satellites launch, low Earth orbit would become congested with over 100,000 additional satellites.
- Collisions between satellites would generate space debris, which would in turn cause further collisions.
- Reentering satellites would burn up in the atmosphere, potentially affecting the climate, while surviving pieces of debris might strike people or aircraft.
Countries of convenience
- OneWeb, which has 634 satellites in orbit, has made filings for 6,118 more satellites through three countries: Mexico, France and the United Kingdom.
- It is unclear why this is happening, but all these states have different administrative rules — and fees — associated with satellite filings.
- Over 44 per cent of the world’s ships by tonnage are registered in just three countries: Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands.
Updating the rules
- The ITU — which is a United Nations agency that predates the UN, making it the oldest agency in the organization — has well-established processes for updating its rules.
- The 193 member states meet every three to four years at World Radiocommunication Conferences, where new rules are debated and adopted.
- However, the first satellite can be launched up to seven years after the filing, giving companies considerable time and flexibility.
Environmental responsibility
- But it must balance that goal with its mandate, which focuses on radio spectrum management.
- From Nov. 20 to Dec. 15, 2023, the ITU member states will convene in Dubai for this year’s World Radiocommunication Conference.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.