General Household Survey

Payrolls Rise in September by 336,000 Defying Expectations

Retrieved on: 
Friday, October 6, 2023
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NEW YORK, Oct. 6, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's jobs report showed that the US labor market was hotter than expected in September, adding 336,000 jobs. Furthermore, July and August payrolls were revised up by a combined 119,000 reversing the previously observed softening. Earlier data from JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showed that job openings were up as well (driven by the rise in Professional and Business Services) suggesting the labor market is stronger than previously thought. 

Key Points: 
  • Furthermore, July and August payrolls were revised up by a combined 119,000 reversing the previously observed softening.
  • Wages also remain elevated as average hourly earnings increased by 4.2 percent year-over-year in September, compared to 4.3 percent in August.
  • Our Salary Increase Budget Survey shows that employers expect that elevated wage growth will continue with the average salary increase budget projected to rise by 4.1 percent in 2024.
  • The Household Survey revealed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged in September at 3.8 percent.

Payrolls Rise in August, But Labor Market is Cooling

Retrieved on: 
Friday, September 1, 2023
Fed, Unemployment, The Conference Board, General Household Survey, Employment, Construction, Household, Federal, Multimedia, Transport, Person, Federal Reserve, Yellow Corporation, Growth, Establishment, Information services, Conference, Behavior, Health insurance, Nursing, Tourism

NEW YORK, Sept. 1, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's jobs report revealed that the US labor market, while still adding jobs, shows clear signs of cooling. Payrolls increased by 187,000 in August. However, jobs added in June and July were revised down by a combined 110,000, bringing the three-month average employment change to just under 150,000, the lowest level since December 2019. Earlier data from JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showed that job openings, voluntary quits, and hiring were down—all of which points to a cooling job market, which the Fed should view constructively.

Key Points: 
  • Earlier data from JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showed that job openings, voluntary quits, and hiring were down—all of which points to a cooling job market, which the Fed should view constructively.
  • However, labor force participation in the 20-24 age group—as well as among older workers (65+)—remains lower than prepandemic levels.
  • We see clear signs of a cooling labor market in recent data, given declines in job openings and voluntary quits, a rising unemployment rate, and the negative shift in consumer confidence for the labor market outlook.
  • However, once we are out of recession, labor demand will likely recover quickly as the economy rebounds.

Small Businesses Report Significant Hiring Decline in July

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, August 8, 2023
Professional Services, Public Policy, Government, Small Business, Other Professional Services, Human Resources, Labor, BLS, Recreation, Small business, Foodservice, Employment, CFA, Household, ADP, Retail, Risk and Insurance Management Society, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau, Weakness, Leg, Index, Trilogy Education Services, HS, Creative Commons, Reading, Growth, Entertainment, Establishment, General Household Survey, Labour, Music, Management, Tourism, Insurance

Meanwhile, the ADP employment report indicated hiring growth among small and medium-sized companies.

Key Points: 
  • Meanwhile, the ADP employment report indicated hiring growth among small and medium-sized companies.
  • The ADP report counts small businesses as companies with 49 or fewer employees, while the CBIZ SBEI uses data from companies with 300 employees or fewer.
  • The West (-5.55%) reported the most significant decline in hiring, followed by the Central (-2.10%) Southeast (-1.84%) and Northeast (-0.56%) regions.
  • Small business hiring in July experienced a dramatic reversal from the strength in hiring observed in June.

US Job Growth Continues, but Slows, in July

Retrieved on: 
Friday, August 4, 2023
Workforce, Unemployment, The Conference Board, General Household Survey, Household, Federal, Overalls, Multimedia, Government, Federal Reserve, Growth, Establishment, Transport, Information services, Conference, Nursing, Health insurance

NEW YORK, Aug. 4, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's jobs report revealed that the US labor market continues to expand, but at a slower rate, with 187,000 jobs added in July. This follows a downwardly revised 185,000 additions in June. Job gains in July were concentrated in service industries, with health care, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and other services accounting for the bulk of the increase.

Key Points: 
  • Job gains in July were concentrated in service industries, with health care, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and other services accounting for the bulk of the increase.
  • Other notable job gains were recorded in construction (19,000), financial activities (19,000), wholesale trade (17,900), and government (15,000).
  • With the slowing job growth, there are signs of cooling in some segments of the labor market.
  • Relatedly, the unemployment rate is likely to start ticking higher also in early 2024 and rise to 4.2 percent, which is about 700,000 job losses.

US Labor Market Continues to Add Jobs

Retrieved on: 
Friday, July 7, 2023
Workforce, The Conference Board, General Household Survey, Household, Federal, Overalls, Weakness, Government, Depression, Federal Reserve, Growth, Establishment, Transport, Conference, Management

NEW YORK, July 7, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's jobs report revealed the US labor market is still expanding, albeit at a reduced rate, with 209,000 jobs added in June following a downwardly revised 306,000 additions in May. Job growth was concentrated in a few industries, with health care and social assistance and government accounting for the bulk of the increase.

Key Points: 
  • The labor force participation rate for prime-age workers (25-54) increased to 83.5 percent—its highest level in the last two decades.
  • Temporary help services—a leading indicator for hiring—lost 12,600 jobs in June and has shed 109,500 jobs in total since November 2022.
  • Additionally, weakness in temporary help services point to further slowing in the overall labor market ahead.
  • This suggests companies are continuing to retain and add to their workforce, but are not increasing weekly hours.

Strong US Labor Market Continues to Defy Expectations

Retrieved on: 
Friday, June 2, 2023
Unemployment, The Conference Board, General Household Survey, Employment, Household, Federal, Policy, Weakness, Multimedia, Government, Federal Reserve, Risk, Growth, Establishment, Transport, Information services, Conference, Management, Tourism

NEW YORK, June 2, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's jobs report revealed the US labor market remains remarkably resilient, with total employment growing by a robust 339,000 jobs in May. This follows an upward revision of April's data to 294,000 total jobs added—another sign of the labor market's ongoing strength. Job gains in May were economy-wide, with almost every industry adding jobs—including construction, government, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing.

Key Points: 
  • This follows an upward revision of April's data to 294,000 total jobs added—another sign of the labor market's ongoing strength.
  • In terms of wage dynamics, the pace of wage growth continues to moderate compared to last year but remains above pre-pandemic rates.
  • Still, labor force participation among 20–24-year-olds has yet to fully recover to its prepandemic level of 73.4 percent in February 2020.
  • Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate remained stagnant at 62.6 percent, which stands 0.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

2022 Starts with Strong Job Growth

Retrieved on: 
Friday, February 4, 2022
Growth, Fed, Infection, Omicron, General Household Survey, Environment, Woman, Household, Transport, COVID-19, Pressure, Employment, Establishment, Foodservice, Multimedia, Mining, Renewable energy, Health insurance

A majority of other industries also added new jobs, except for construction and mining, where small job losses were recorded.

Key Points: 
  • A majority of other industries also added new jobs, except for construction and mining, where small job losses were recorded.
  • Continued improvements in the labor market and higher wages should attract some people back to the job market, and participation rates may improve slightly during 2022.
  • Job growth in November and December was revised up by 709,000, implying job growth did not slow towards the end of 2021.
  • This jobs report supports the Fed's increasingly hawkish guidance, and we are currently expecting at minimum four25-basis-point interest-rate hikes in 2022.

Weaker Job Growth and Growing Uncertainty Around Potential Surge of COVID-19

Retrieved on: 
Friday, December 3, 2021
General Household Survey, Family, Omicron, Motor vehicle, Transport, Establishment, Household, The Conference Board, Parent, Multimedia, Conference, Ageing, COVID-19, Health insurance

NEW YORK, Dec. 3, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's jobs report showed weaker job growth in November compared to October.

Key Points: 
  • NEW YORK, Dec. 3, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's jobs report showed weaker job growth in November compared to October.
  • While more people joined the labor force in November, the labor force participation rate remains well below its prepandemic rate.
  • Job growth was weak in leisure and hospitality, adding only 23,000 jobs in November.
  • Job growth in this area has slowed since the summer, averaging 93,000 between August and November, compared to 363,000 between April and July.