- Controlling the global ocean enables the projection of military power all over the world, as well as securing the free flow of goods at sea.
- The prosperity and security of trading nations strongly depend on the stability of the global maritime supply chain and thus on freedom of navigation.
- Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have incurred substantial costs for the global economy.
- Together with Kyiv’s efficient use of missiles and drones against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, it limited Russia’s ability to disrupt Ukraine’s maritime trade.
Power projection
- Western dominance has always relied on its ability to project military power across the globe via the sea.
- This raises questions about the west’s ability to project power and forces into contested theatres such as the Taiwan Strait because they’d be vulnerable to attack from the Chinese mainland.
- In the Indo-Pacific, China has been developing capabilities to counter US projection forces.
Civilian seapower
- This explains China’s balanced stance on the Red Sea crisis and reports that Beijing has been pressuring Iran to bring the Houthis under control.
- But at the same time, China is using its commercial and financial assets to peacefully, though proactively, extend its maritime power.
- Elsewhere, in the South China Sea, Beijing has mastered the art of blurring the boundaries between civilian, military and legal means and objectives – this is defined as “grey zone” tactics.
For whosoever command the sea…
- Sir Walter Raleigh’s old dictum: “For whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself” has until recently characterised the western, liberal world order.
- Seapower proceeds from a combination of naval and commercial maritime assets and isn’t limited to the west.
- This might open the doors for a new, illiberal world order, most likely one that is dominated by China.
Basil Germond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.