- Southern Africa is home to 22,137 of the world’s 23,432 white and black African rhinos.
- But they’re facing grave threats because of a warming planet.
Why are rhinos in danger of being wiped out?
Rhinos cannot sweat. If they want to cool their large bodies down in the heat, they need to consume a lot of water. They also rely on wallowing in water holes and resting in the shade. As Earth heats up, rhinos will only survive if they have more opportunities to cool down.
How did you calculate that rhinos will not survive the worst scenario?
- We looked at the temperature and rainfall averages in each of the best locations for rhinos, and then we mapped out the extremes.
- Our conclusion was that if the world enters the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway, there is zero probability of rhinos surviving in southern Africa.
Is there a Plan B to avoid the worst for rhinos?
- Our view is that governments and societies should start planning immediately to ward off the worst-case scenario.
- For rhinos to survive this climate change scenario, corridors will also need to be set up for rhinos to move between parks.
- This will be very challenging for the parks and they must start planning their landscapes now.
How much will all this cost?
- One of the ideas is that when you protect a species like rhinos, elephants and gorillas, the investment you make in that species will help multiple species.
- Until recently, our mindset about rhinos was about how they benefit us by bringing in revenues.
- We have to start looking at rhinos as an essential part of an ecosystem that is providing services to society.
2085 isn’t far away. Could it really be over for rhinos by then?
- These pathways are the global standard for predicting how the climate will change based on the actions of humans.
- We chose to map the future of rhinos based on the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways.
- This will warm the climate on the planet by an average of 2.4°C (between 1.7 and 3.2 degrees celsius) by 2100.
- But Earth will only get onto this pathway if we manage to cut methane gas and carbon dioxide emissions.
- By 2100, carbon dioxide emissions would also need to drop by half the level reached in 2050.
Timothy Randhir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
