In centennial year, Turkish voters will choose between Erdoğan’s conservative path and the founder’s modernist vision
On May 14, 2023, voters will go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections, and in October, the country will celebrate the centennial of the Republic.
- On May 14, 2023, voters will go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections, and in October, the country will celebrate the centennial of the Republic.
- As a professor of political science, I have analyzed Turkish politics for many years.
- The upcoming elections are truly historic because voters will choose which vision they prefer in the second centennial of Turkey – Erdoğan’s or Atatürk’s.
The presidential race
- Four candidates are running in the forthcoming presidential race.
- But public surveys suggest that it is a two-man race between President Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, founded by Atatürk.
Erdoğan and populist Islamism
- This included many Kurds, members of an ethnic minority in Turkey, who want cultural recognition and therefore resisted Turkish nationalism.
- By 2013, these groups succeeded in weakening Atatürkists’ grip on politics and the bureaucracy.
- On the contrary, he has wooed nationalists to his populist Islamist regime.
- And they share anti-Western attitudes, from promoting anti-Western conspiracy theories to proposing Turkey’s exit from NATO.
The Atatürkist alternative
- As the leader of the CHP, Kılıçdaroğlu represents the Atatürkist alternative to Erdoğan’s populist Islamism.
- Yet Kılıçdaroğlu has been an exception among the Atatürkist elite.
- To oversee the economy, Kılıçdaroğlu is reportedly eyeing two candidates – a former economy minister and a University of Pennsylvania finance professor.
Candidates’ advantages and hurdles
- Erdoğan will rely on aspects of the authoritarian administration he has built over the last two decades.
- But Erdoğan faces hurdles related to his authoritarian style, too, particularly the many discontented citizens his 20-year rule has produced.
- The ongoing economic crisis – with an inflation rate over 80% – is another hindrance to his reelection.
- And his vote could take a hit from the fallout of the recent earthquake that killed over 45,000 people in Turkey.
A global impact?
- An Erdoğan win will signal that the global rise of right-wing populists is still robust enough to dominate a leading Muslim-majority country.
- A victory for Kılıçdaroğlu, meanwhile, may be celebrated by democrats worldwide as a defeat of a populist Islamist leader, despite his control over the media and state institutions.