Election Commission

• Shock results in Pakistan’s national election threaten to see the country free-fall into political crisis.
• Days after the election, it remains unclear which party (or parties) will form a government and who the next prime minister will be.
• Independent candidates affiliated to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice/PTI), the party of former prime minister, Imran Khan, won 95 of 264 seats.
• The country has been under military rule for nearly as much time as it has been under a civilian government.

Close contest

• Behind the scenes, Sharif and his PML-N is negotiating power-sharing with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People Party (PPP).
• He is also hoping to co-opt some of Khan’s PTI-backed candidates, and is showing some success.
• If he manages to put together a coalition, Sharif will come to power with much baggage.

Stability is unlikely

• These results meant the Awami League had won an outright majority to govern the whole of Pakistan.
• East Pakistan became Bangladesh and West Pakistan simply became Pakistan.
• Over half a century later, it is unlikely that Khan will stay quiet if his party is denied power.

Pakistan’s economy is in crisis

• The cost of essentials such as wheat, sugar and vegetables are now unaffordable for many ordinary people whose wages are being stretched to breaking point.
• The number of people living in poverty in Pakistan has climbed to nearly 40%.
• And price hikes for electricity and fuel in September 2023 led to protests, with thousands taking to the streets and burning their electricity bills.

Parveen Akhtar has previously received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and the British Academy.

• The Thai parliamentary election was held over two months ago and yet, the country still has no prime minister or government.
• While much remains in flux, one thing appears certain – the popular reformist leader of the party that received the most votes in the election, Pita Limjaroenrat, will not be the country’s next prime minister.
• So, why has the winner of the election been blocked from taking office?

Who is Pita?

• However, it was soon replaced by the newly established Move Forward Party, and Pita was elected its leader in March 2020.
• Even more astonishing was Move Forward’s almost clean sweep of Bangkok, winning 32 out of 33 seats.
• Pita then built a coalition of eight parties that together controlled 312 of the 500 seats in the House, a clear majority.

Why was Pita disqualified?

• Before the first round of parliamentary voting, Pita and his party were presented with two other significant hurdles – the Constitutional Court had received two cases against them.
• The second, referred by the Election Commission, argued Pita should be removed as an MP for knowingly holding shares in a media company when he registered.
• Pita was allowed to contest the first round of voting on July 13 nonetheless, but fell short, winning 324 votes.

Why do conservatives oppose Pita?

• A new book on the Thai king by an exiled academic, Pavin Chachavalpongpun, was also recently banned for defaming the monarchy.
• Pita and his party have also committed to push for a bill to legalise same-sex marriage and improve gender equality in Thailand.
• But it also made the party a target of powerful, anti-democratic, conservative forces, particularly the military, the monarchy and their supporters.

So what could happen next?

• Many young people feel as though the conservative forces in Thai society have stifled the democratic will of the people – yet again.
• There is a chance this is true and we are on the cusp of a surge of democratic power in Thailand.
• But for many long-time observers of civil-military relations in Southeast Asia, this view might turn out to be overly optimistic.