Move Forward

• The Thai parliamentary election was held over two months ago and yet, the country still has no prime minister or government.
• While much remains in flux, one thing appears certain – the popular reformist leader of the party that received the most votes in the election, Pita Limjaroenrat, will not be the country’s next prime minister.
• So, why has the winner of the election been blocked from taking office?

Who is Pita?

• However, it was soon replaced by the newly established Move Forward Party, and Pita was elected its leader in March 2020.
• Even more astonishing was Move Forward’s almost clean sweep of Bangkok, winning 32 out of 33 seats.
• Pita then built a coalition of eight parties that together controlled 312 of the 500 seats in the House, a clear majority.

Why was Pita disqualified?

• Before the first round of parliamentary voting, Pita and his party were presented with two other significant hurdles – the Constitutional Court had received two cases against them.
• The second, referred by the Election Commission, argued Pita should be removed as an MP for knowingly holding shares in a media company when he registered.
• Pita was allowed to contest the first round of voting on July 13 nonetheless, but fell short, winning 324 votes.

Why do conservatives oppose Pita?

• A new book on the Thai king by an exiled academic, Pavin Chachavalpongpun, was also recently banned for defaming the monarchy.
• Pita and his party have also committed to push for a bill to legalise same-sex marriage and improve gender equality in Thailand.
• But it also made the party a target of powerful, anti-democratic, conservative forces, particularly the military, the monarchy and their supporters.

So what could happen next?

• Many young people feel as though the conservative forces in Thai society have stifled the democratic will of the people – yet again.
• There is a chance this is true and we are on the cusp of a surge of democratic power in Thailand.
• But for many long-time observers of civil-military relations in Southeast Asia, this view might turn out to be overly optimistic.

• Thai voters spoke nervously of their democratic aspirations and allowed a military-led government into power.
• Now, after four years of a functioning parliamentary democracy, Thai voters have roared.
• With nearly all votes counted in Sunday’s parliamentary election, they have resoundingly rejected the junta and its successor military-proxy parties.

Will this usher in a democratic spring?

• Move Forward has a similar leader in the Harvard-educated former businessman Pita Limjaroenrat – someone who is both well-educated and business-minded.
• Democratic institutions have taken a battering in the region in recent years, with Myanmar’s 2021 coup and Cambodia’s turn to increasingly autocratic rule under Hun Sen.
• Read more:
  'This country belongs to the people': why young Thais are no longer afraid to take on the monarchy

But obstacles remain

• If this were to occur, they would be a minority government, unable to pass laws without opposition support, and subject to no-confidence motions.
• Would Pheu Thai try to elevate Paetongtarn - the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra – into the role?
• The chances of both parties forming a working coalition would be strengthened if they could bring Bhumjaithai into the government.
• Bhumjaithai’s leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, the current health minister and a cannabis advocate, has insisted that changing Thailand’s cannabis law is non-negotiable for his party.

Could a ‘judicial coup’ derail negotiations?

• There are strong precedents for this, as previous progressive parties have been dissolved through court rulings – a misfortune yet to befall any of the conservative parties.
• Pita is currently facing a lawsuit related to his possession of shares in a media company.
• This means the joint sitting of parliament should happen faster and a coalition will soon emerge.

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