Trump

• Democracy advocates cheered the defeat of the Law and Justice party in Poland and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s breakthrough victory over his populist adversary in Brazil.
• Read more:
  Lula and the world: what to expect from the new Brazilian foreign policy

  But populists won big victories in 2023 too — and made comebacks.

• Donald Trump, despite his numerous indictments and allegations he incited an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, began a second run for president.

A new age of extremism

• Today, we have seemingly passed from the age of extremes into an age of extremism.
• Low-trust voters feel they’ve been misled and reject the traditional policy options offered by social democratic parties.
• With the decline in support for traditional left-wing parties in the Global North, voters are sending anti-establishment messages to the parties of the right.

Binary voting and wedge issues

• Public opinion research from the Economist Intelligence Unit, Freedom House, the Pew Research Center and Sweden’s V-Dem Institute warn that there are fewer undecided voters than ever.
• Modern politics is increasingly an exercise in what’s known as binary voting.
• Amassing on land borders and crossing perilously by sea, migrants and refugees perfectly illustrate the “us versus them” mindset.

Asylum-seekers and the anxious voter

• The answer is simple: in the skewed world view of nationalists, migrants are by definition “cheaters”.
• Far-right populists campaign on the false belief that refugee-seekers are also corrupting the traditional way of life, taking jobs and driving up the cost of living.
• Increasingly extreme populists have come to power promising to deal with the problem, but they’ve failed to provide any effective solutions.
• It’s the same situation at the American southern border — in 2023, two million people illegally crossed the border.

A problem with no solution

• Climate change, war and geopolitical rivalry drive already precarious populations to seek a place of greater safety.
• But as the numbers rise, politicians continuously recycle bad ideas: close the border, send them back, send them elsewhere.
• The main drivers of migration today are not just poverty and war in the Middle East and Ukraine, but also post-pandemic labour shortages.

Staring into the abyss?

• In more than a dozen countries, populist leaders are poised to either take power or consolidate their hold on the opposition.
• Wannabe fascists are set to play a bigger role in world affairs this year than they have at any time since the Second World War.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• Former President Donald Trump’s claims of immunity from criminal prosecution will be argued before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on Jan. 9, 2024 – on an interlocutory appeal from his trial for election interference.
• His arguments have been rejected by a district court judge, and the Supreme Court has declined to weigh in – for now.
• Commentators have described his immunity arguments as “frivolous” and “absurd.” But such accounts underestimate the arguments’ weight and at times misconstrue them.

A related absolute immunity already exists

• His first line of defense claims that his actions are covered by a constitutional immunity protecting presidents when they act in their official capacity.
• They are saying he can’t be prosecuted for so-called “official acts.” A related immunity has been recognized in the past.
• In 1982, the Supreme Court recognized that presidents have absolute immunity from civil lawsuits for their official actions.
• Nevertheless, it is conceivable that courts would recognize presidential criminal immunity for official acts.

The complication from the impeachment clauses

• But he went on to claim that since he was acquitted – only 57 senators voted to convict him, short of the 67 needed – he was not liable for criminal prosecution.
• The New York Times called it an “even more audacious argument” than his claim of absolute immunity.
• Indeed, impeachment proceedings are very rare, and most eligible offenders never face an impeachment.
• Moreover, as the critics point out, criminal acts may be discovered after the person in question has already left office.

Does acquittal in an impeachment proceeding create or preserve criminal immunity?

• That claim, if upheld, would provide Trump with criminal immunity whether presidents enjoy absolute immunity or not.
• The claim would work only if Trump’s impeachment and his criminal prosecution were based on the same acts – an allegation that is disputed by the special counsel.
• Here, Trump acknowledges that an impeachment conviction removes that protection – but insists that an acquittal does not.

Ofer Raban does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• For some Arab Americans, a community that overwhelmingly voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential election, that support may have negative consequences on Biden’s attempt to regain the White House in 2024.
• In fact, numerous Middle Eastern and Muslim American leaders have called for their communities to “abandon Biden” in the upcoming presidential election.
• As a whole, the number of Middle Eastern or Muslim Americans is quite small.
• In the 2020 presidential election, for instance, Biden won the state of Michigan by a total of 154,000 votes.

Working around statistical erasure

• As a social scientist, I specialize in statistical analysis and research on how race, ethnicity and religion affect political outcomes in the U.S.
• I know from firsthand experience that any effort to gauge the attitudes and behaviors of Middle Eastern and Muslim Americans requires a bit of analytic gymnastics.
• That stipulation is found in that agency’s Race and Ethnic Standards for Federal Statistics and Administrative Reporting and is used in U.S. census reports.

• Even public opinion surveys that record religious denomination typically offer little to no insight into this community.
• When it comes to more prevalent religious groups – Catholics, Protestants, white evangelicals – their opinions are frequently reported and the subject of many polls.
• But Muslims are nearly always relegated to the “other non-Christian” religious category, along with similarly small faith communities.

Impact of defections on 2024 presidential campaign

• Among Muslim Americans the drop is worse, from 70% in 2020 to about 10% at the end of 2023.
• If these poll numbers hold true until Nov. 7, the 2024 presidential election would be the first time in nearly 30 years that the Democrats were not the party of choice for Arab American voters.
• Though the order survived numerous legal challenges, it was eventually overturned by Biden shortly after he took office in January 2021.

• Michigan is not the only state where no-shows in these communities could jeopardize Biden’s prospects for victory.
• But even if they were, the numbers show that a presidential election may swing on a lesser-known but potentially crucial voting bloc.

Youssef Chouhoud does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• Momentous questions for the U.S. Supreme Court and momentous consequences for the country are likely now that the court has announced it will decide whether former president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump is eligible to appear on the Colorado ballot.
• The court’s decision to consider the issue comes in the wake of Colorado’s highest court ruling that Trump had engaged in insurrection and therefore was barred from appearing on the state’s GOP primary ballot by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
• Maine’s secretary of state also barred Trump from the state’s primary ballot, and more than a dozen other states are also considering similar moves.

• It’s the first time it has kept a presidential candidate off the ballot, much less a former one and the apparent frontrunner for the Republican Party nomination.
• This was an extraordinary major decision from the Colorado Supreme Court.
• I think the decision to grant only Trump’s case is a decision to make this as streamlined a process as possible.
• Will whatever decision the court makes put to rest the ballot access questions in all the other states?
• Those are months when the court is in recess, and they would have to come back from their summer vacation early.
• They’ve scheduled oral argument on Feb. 8, 2024 so they want to move on as quickly as possible to put this to rest.

• The two general points are that I think states have the power to judge the qualifications of presidential candidates and keep them off the ballot.
• And states have done that over the years to say if you were born in Nicaragua, or you’re 27 years old, we’re going to keep you off the ballot.
• You can look throughout history, going back to the 1890s, where ineligible candidates’ names have been printed and put on the ballot.
• And we know that there’s Super Tuesday the first Tuesday of March when a significant number of states hold presidential primaries.

I filed an amicus brief on my own behalf in support of neither party in the Colorado Supreme Court.