When homes flood, who retreats and to where? We mapped thousands of buyouts and found the average move is only 7 miles, and race plays a role
He sold his flooded home, purchased his grandmother’s former house on New Orleans’ west bank, which hadn’t flooded, and moved in.
- He sold his flooded home, purchased his grandmother’s former house on New Orleans’ west bank, which hadn’t flooded, and moved in.
- It felt good to be back within its familiar walls, but his mind was on the future.
- “My other house wasn’t supposed to flood, and now insurance costs are going through the roof; it’s bad,” he told us.
- “I wanted to keep my grandma’s place in the family, but I don’t know how much longer I can stay.
Tracking where people go in managed retreat
- That FEMA program is the largest managed retreat, or buyout, program in the country, by far.
- To date, officials have implemented the program in more than 500 cities and towns in every state but Hawaii.
- After tracking down where homeowners moved, we attached flood risk scores to their origin and destination addresses.
Most homeowners who retreat stay close
- Regardless of location, we found that most retreating homeowners do not move far.
- Nationwide, the median driving distance between people’s old and new homes in our database is just 7.4 miles (11.9 kilometers).
- When illuminated, they reveal that most retreating homeowners are not moving long distances to safer towns, states and regions; they are churning in and between nearby neighborhoods.
- Nationwide, 70% of participants lowered their flood risk score through retreat, while only 8% increased it.
Race plays a role
- It is the racial composition of their immediate neighborhood.
- We found that retreating homeowners in majority-white neighborhoods are willing to endure 30% higher flood risk before selling to the government and relocating than homeowners in majority-Black neighborhoods.
- One is the heightened social status of predominantly white neighborhoods, which can encourage significant public and private investment after major disasters.
Lessons for future buyout programs
- Like Kirt Talamo, their minds will be on what happens next in a world where past housing decisions seem to be increasingly unsustainable.
- James R. Elliott has received funding for this line of research from the National Science Foundation.