Kharkiv

• Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive was the subject of speculation for months before it officially began at the beginning of June.
• So far, only modest progress has been made and there have been concerns from Kyiv’s allies that Ukraine is making insufficient headway against entrenched Russian defences.
• With the end of summer now fast approaching, it seems that a serious push is taking place.
• But reports emerge daily to indicate that progress is being made in a number of areas.

Overcoming Russian defences

• While Russian forces are reported to be disorganised and suffering low morale, they have the advantage of occupying well-prepared defensive positions, which will make them hard to dislodge.
• They have been able to prepare many challenges, such as minefields that stretch for hundreds of kilometres.
• While Ukraine possesses a highly mobile, well-trained and capable force, physical barriers of this nature are proving difficult to navigate.

Pragmatic approach

• Heavy losses in early phases have already caused Ukraine to rethink its approach.
• General Syrskyi, the architect of some of Ukraine’s biggest victories, stresses the importance of a cautious approach: “We’d like to get very fast results, but in reality, it’s practically impossible.” Likewise, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has stressed the importance of not expecting “Hollywood” style outcomes.
• This is likely to frustrate key Nato allies, who are increasingly critical of the pace of advance.
• Yet again, Ukrainian forces are pragmatic: “We can’t draw big conclusions yet,” a senior military officer told journalists on July 30.

• Already there are reports that Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the south.
• Russia has spent most of April trading lives and equipment for modest territorial gains around Bakhmut, leaving their forces exhausted.
• With time, Russia can solidify its hold on occupied territories and renovate its armed forces before reigniting the conflict on its terms.
• There is also the possibility that Putin anticipates that western support for Ukraine is not indefinite, and he needs only bide his time.

International support

• It may be the case that tanks and equipment from donor nations provide a decisive edge to the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• There are hopes that this issue is at least partially resolved, though some shortages still exist, exacerbated by hard fighting throughout the winter.

The road south

• If may be that the push across the Dnipro in the southern Kherson region is a feint to distract from a major push in the north-east.
• The west wants reassurance that Ukraine can achieve a major military success, while Ukraine needs western arms and support to do so.
• With Russia eyeing a stalemate, a Ukrainian victory will send a powerful message – and, perhaps just as importantly, buy time.

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