Victory Day

• Though widely sensationalised as a major attack against the heart of the Russian government, they caused only minor damage, mostly to high-rise buildings.
• In early May, Russia alleged that Ukraine had targeted President Putin with a drone strike, which Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, promptly denied.
• And Ukraine is thought to have been behind a series of drone strikes against airbases in Russia’s Kursk, Saratov and Ryazan regions, up to 300 miles inside Russian territory.
• There have also been drone strikes against Russian oil pipelines and refineries including near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a crucial oil export hub for Russia.

Intensifying air war

• First, it suggests that at the moment, there is a lull in the ground war and an intensification of the air war.
• The costs of the intensifying air war are particularly borne by Ukraine, which has endured daily waves of drone and missile attacks since then, including on its capital Kyiv.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: Zelensky's diplomatic tour has improved the ground for a fresh military offensive – but it needs to come soon

Deportation plans

• Defences against an expected Ukrainian offensive have been massively fortified along the around 1,000km of frontline and along the beaches of Crimea.
• On April 27, Putin signed a decree that forces residents in the occupied territories either to accept Russian citizenship or become stateless.
• This is most likely an attempt to withstand Ukrainian pressure during Kyiv’s anticipated offensive until it runs out of steam.

Ukraine’s message to Russia

• The drone strikes on Moscow can be seen as preparations for that.
• In attacking deep inside Russia, these strikes will also force Russia to keep air defences close to symbolically and strategically important assets, rather than deploying them closer to the frontline with Ukraine.
• The attacks also send a message to the Russian people that the “special military operation” is making them less, not more, secure.

• Victory Day, which commemorates the defeat of Nazism in Europe is the most important holiday in Russia.
• That year, the Victory Day parade was held on the Red Square in Moscow for first time since 1945.
• May 9 became a day of public celebrations, family outings, concerts and fireworks – all broadcast on national television.
• Victory Day was the only major public holiday that made the transition to post-Soviet Russia.
• In the Putin era – especially after the 2014 occupation of Crimea – Victory Day foregrounds readiness to fight to protect the motherland and the value of self-sacrifice.

March of the Immortals

• They could have contributed in any capacity – armed forces fighters and service personnel, partisans, home-front workers, and more.
• The following year, Immortal Regiment marches were organised in many Russian cities, as well as in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Israel.
• Sensing a successful popular initiative, the state moved in and took over organisation of the Immortal Regiment and its publicity.

Controlling the message

• Russian official media explain the scaling down of celebrations in pragmatic terms, citing potential “provocations” and “terrorist attacks”.
• But the real reason probably has to do with controlling the official narrative of the war.
• So the message of Victory Day celebrations must be carefully controlled and curated.
• The last thing the Kremlin wants is for large numbers of people to turn up holding pictures of their loved ones killed in Ukraine.