What the extreme fire seasons of 1910 and 2020 – and 2,500 years of forest history – tell us about the future of wildfires in the West
This could describe any number of recent events, in places as disparate as Colorado, California, Canada and Hawaii.
- This could describe any number of recent events, in places as disparate as Colorado, California, Canada and Hawaii.
- The “Big Burn” of 1910 still holds the record for the largest fire season in the Northern Rockies.
- But are extreme fire seasons like these really that unusual in the context of history?
- This long view provides both hopeful and concerning lessons for making sense of today’s extreme fire events and impacts on forests.
Lakes record history going back millennia
- When a high-elevation forest burns, fires consume tree needles and small branches, killing most trees and lofting charcoal in the air.
- Some of that charcoal lands on lakes and sinks to the bottom, where it is preserved in layers as sediment accumulates.
Lessons from Rockies’ long history with fire
- High-elevation forests only burn about once every 100 to 250 or more years on average.
- Even today, the Northern Rockies show resilience to wildfires, including early signs of recovery after extensive fires in 2017.
- But similar research in high-elevation forests of the Southern Rockies in Colorado and Wyoming tells a different story.
Warmer climate, greater fire activity, higher risks
- Warmer, drier springs and summers load the dice to make extensive fire seasons more likely.
- This was the case in 1910 in the Northern Rockies and in 2020 in the Southern Rockies.
Lessons from the long view
- Extreme wildfires will become more and more likely as the climate warms, and it will be harder for forests to recover.
- Accidental ignitions – from downed power lines, escaped campfires, dragging chains, railroads – expand when and where fires occur, and they lead to the majority of homes lost to fires.
So what can we do?
- Forest thinning and prescribed burns can alter how forests burn, protecting humans and minimizing the most severe ecological impacts.
- Kyra Clark-Wolf has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Joint Fire Science Program