Politicians believe voters to be more conservative than they really are
Such developments might send a signal to European politicians to lean further to the right in a scramble to save votes.
- Such developments might send a signal to European politicians to lean further to the right in a scramble to save votes.
- Yet our latest research, published this month, shows that politicians’ perceptions may not actually reflect voters’ true interests and opinions.
866 officials surveyed
- On questions related to state intervention in the economy, gun control, immigration, or abortion, the majority of both Republicans and Democratic representatives surveyed believed that a greater share of citizens supported right-wing policies than what public-opinion data revealed.
- We were curious whether conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion was limited to American politics or was a broader phenomenon.
- To explore this, we interviewed 866 politicians in four democracies that whose political systems differ from each other and from that of the United States: Belgium, Canada, Germany and Switzerland.
- In all four countries, and on a majority of issues, politicians consistently overestimate the share of citizens who hold right-wing views.
The result of lobbying?
- We tested this explanation in our studied countries, but could not find evidence to support it.
- The right-wing citizens in our sample are not more politically active, and therefore visible, than their left-wing counterparts.
- Yet the idea that politicians’ information environment might be skewed to the right can find support in other work.
- The observed conservative bias might also be associated with what social psychologist call “pluralistic ignorance” (i.e., misperceptions of others’ opinions).
A threat to representative democracy
- Irrespective of the sources of the conservative bias, the fact that it is persistently present in a variety of different democratic systems has major implications for the well-functioning of representative democracy.
- Representative democracy builds upon the idea that elected politicians are responsive to citizens, meaning that they by and large attempt to promote policy initiatives that are in line with people’s preferences.
- A 2020 study in Switzerland has shown that a sustained use of direct democracy might help politicians better understand public opinion.