United States Consumer Price Index

Underlying inflation measures: an analytical guide for the euro area

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Saturday, August 5, 2023
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How have unit profits contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures?

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Friday, June 30, 2023
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Global POS Restaurant Management Systems Strategic Business Report 2023: Innovations in Restaurant Technology Spur Development of Next-generation Restaurant POS Systems

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Thursday, June 29, 2023
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Dining Out is More than Just Preference of Where Food is Consumed.

Key Points: 
  • Dining Out is More than Just Preference of Where Food is Consumed.
  • It's a Social Concept Which Interestingly Provides the Foundation for the Growth of the Restaurant Supply Chain
    Eating Out is a Trillion Dollar Business, a Business Fact that Brings Cheer to the POS Restaurant Management Systems Market: Global Restaurants & Mobile Food Services (In US$ Billion) for Years 2022, 2024 & 2026
    What's Ahead for Businesses & Markets?
  • Shaken by the War, Global Oil Prices Spiral & Feed Inflationary Pressures: Global Average Annual Brent Crude Oil Price (In US$ Per Barrel) for Years 2017 through 2022
    War-Induced Commodity Price Increases & Broad Based Price Pressures Mark the Return of Global Inflation in 2022: Global Inflation Rates (In %) for the Years 2019 Through 2022
    After the Pandemic, Global Economic Uncertainty Surges Amidst War, Inflation, Political Tensions & Supply Chain Disruptions Aggravated by China's Slowdown: World Economic Growth Projections (Real GDP, Annual % Change) for the Years 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023
    What is a POS System?
  • Here's Why

Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area - October 2022 to March 2023

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Monday, June 19, 2023
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Key Points: 

How have higher energy prices affected industrial production and imports?

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Monday, February 20, 2023
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This box analyses how the increase in energy prices since autumn 2021 has affected euro area aggregate industrial production and import volumes.

Key Points: 
  • This box analyses how the increase in energy prices since autumn 2021 has affected euro area aggregate industrial production and import volumes.
  • Between September 2021 and October 2022 average euro area consumer and producer energy prices increased by 49.5% and 93.4% respectively.
  • In the same period euro area industrial production excluding construction and import volumes excluding energy grew by 2.3% and 10.3% respectively.
  • These developments are in line with the expectation that adverse energy supply shocks raise production costs, which can cause a drop in output and an increase in imports from countries that are less dependent on global energy production.
  • [1] Euro area countries imported more in sectors relatively more exposed to increases in energy prices from trade partners that were less affected by the energy price shock.
  • Euro area industrial production and imports
    a) Manufacturing industrial production by sub-sector
    (percentage changes in industrial production and percentage point contributions relative to January 2020)

    b) Manufacturing import volumes by sub-sector
    (percentage changes in import volumes and percentage point contributions relative to January 2020)

    Sources: Eurostat, Trade Data Monitor and ECB staff calculations.

  • Low (high) energy-intensity sectors are defined as those with an energy intensity lower (higher) than that of the median sector.
  • Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products is excluded as it is part of the energy industrial grouping.
  • At the same time, energy-intensive production sectors faced much higher energy costs in 2022, and this was behind the drop in output.
  • Empirical analysis confirms that energy supply issues and bottlenecks in production processes played a key role in the developments in aggregate industrial production and aggregate import volumes (excluding energy) in 2022.
  • The analysis uses the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), industrial production (excluding construction), Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suppliers’ delivery times, consumer energy prices and import volumes of goods excluding energy.
  • The assumed sign restrictions at impact are as follows: demand shocks imply HICP (+), HICP energy (+), industrial production (+), import volumes (+) and PMI suppliers’ delivery times (-); energy supply shocks imply HICP (+), HICP energy (+), industrial production (-) and PMI suppliers’ delivery times (-); supply chain disruption shocks imply HICP (+), industrial production (-) and PMI suppliers’ delivery times (-); other supply shocks imply HICP (+) and industrial production (-); foreign shocks imply HICP (-), industrial production (-) and import volumes (+).
  • Marginal effects of imports on production in industries with different energy intensities (the higher the percentile, the higher the energy intensity)
    (x-axis: percentile of energy cost increase; y-axis: correlation coefficient)

    Sources: Eurostat, Trade Data Monitor and ECB calculations.

Inflation developments in the euro area and the United States

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Monday, January 16, 2023
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= Inflation developments in the euro area and the United States =

Key Points: 
  • = Inflation developments in the euro area and the United States =
    Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 8/2022.
  • Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021.
  • An earlier and stronger increase had been recorded in the United States, but headline inflation has been higher in the euro area since July 2022.
  • Energy and food price inflation have played a key role as drivers of the higher headline inflation recorded in the euro area.
  • In November energy inflation alone accounted for 38% of headline inflation in the euro area – but only for 14% in the United States.
  • Together, energy and food inflation make up around two-thirds of headline inflation in the euro area, but only around one-third of headline inflation in the United States (Chart A).
  • [2] HICP inflation excluding food and energy stood at 5.0% in November in the euro area.
  • A stronger consumption-driven recovery in the United States has been a key driver of differences between underlying inflation developments in the two economies.
  • Focusing on goods inflation, the contribution of supply remains higher than the contribution of demand in both the United States and the euro area.
  • The latest observations are for September 2022 for the euro area and October 2022 for the United States.
  • Professional forecasters expect inflation two years ahead to be slightly higher in the United States than in the euro area.
  • One-year ahead HICP inflation in the euro area is expected to stand at 4.8% according to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).
  • At the same time, inflation expectations two years ahead for the United States stand at 2.6% for the PCE and 2.8% for the CPI, while two-year ahead inflation expectations for the euro area HICP stand at 2.4% (Chart E).

Farm Bureau: Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Up 20%

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Wednesday, November 16, 2022
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WASHINGTON, Nov. 16, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Farm Bureau's 37th annual survey reveals the average cost of this year's classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 is $64.05, less than $6.50 per person.

Key Points: 
  • WASHINGTON, Nov. 16, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Farm Bureau's 37th annual survey reveals the average cost of this year's classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 is $64.05, less than $6.50 per person.
  • The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables the turkey costs more than last year, at $28.96 for a 16-pound bird.
  • This means consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey should be able to find one at a lower cost than the Farm Bureau average.
  • "General inflation slashing the purchasing power of consumers is a significant factor contributing to the increase in average cost of this year's Thanksgiving dinner," said AFBF Chief Economist Roger Cryan.

Luis de Guindos: The euro area economy and the energy transition

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Friday, November 11, 2022
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Madrid, 4 November 2022

Key Points: 
  • Madrid, 4 November 2022
    I am very pleased to be taking part in this event on the important topic of the energy transition and its impact on the economy.
  • I will consider the impact of energy price developments on inflation before discussing the green transition and how climate change is taken into account in our monetary policy framework.
  • Growth in the euro area is estimated to have slowed down significantly in the third quarter of this year, with real GDP growing at 0.2%.
  • Demand for services is decelerating following the strong rebound that came with the reopening of the economy over the summer, especially in tourism.
  • The continued weakening in global demand, also in the context of tighter monetary policy in many major economies, and the worsening terms of trade mean that there is less support for the euro area economy.
  • The depreciation of the euro has also added to the build-up of inflationary pressures.
  • Price pressures are evident in more and more sectors, in part owing to the impact of high energy costs feeding through to the whole economy.
  • The unprecedented energy price developments and the ensuing energy crisis are posing challenges in various ways.
  • In fact, a trade-off between energy security, the green transition and price stability may be emerging.
  • The current energy crisis has left Europe at a crossroads, presenting challenges as well as opportunities for the green transition.
  • To counter the sharp rise in energy prices, many governments adopted expensive and broad-based support measures for households and firms.
  • But these measures risk diluting relative price signals that are crucial to incentivise energy saving and foster green investment.