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Gas price shocks and euro area inflation

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
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We document

Key Points: 
    • We document
      how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices
      depending on the underlying shock driving them.
    • How do gas price shocks feed through to euro area
      inflation, and is the pass-through shock-dependent?
    • We analyse the importance of gas price shocks
      for euro area inflation in two steps.
    • We identify three structural shocks driving European gas prices,
      inspired by the literature on oil but tailored to the European gas market: (i) a gas supply
      shock, which reduces the supply of natural gas to the European market, increases the
      gas price and lowers gas inventories; (ii) an economic activity shock, which lifts demand
      for gas due to higher economic production, and finally (iii) a shock to gas inventories,
      when gas prices are driven by precautionary demand by gas companies.
    • First, all three identified shocks are
      important drivers of gas price dynamics, but they differ in how persistently they push

      ECB Working Paper Series No 2905

      2

      up gas prices.

    • The effect on euro area HICP of a shock to gas supply is more
      persistent and somewhat higher than when gas prices are driven by economic activity
      shocks.
    • A final key finding is that the pass-through of gas market shocks to euro area inflation
      appears non-linear.
    • The unprecedented volatility of gas prices
      contributed to the inflation problem in the euro area, with the gas price shocks feeding
      through producer prices, wages and persistently lifting core inflation.
    • More expensive
      energy contributed substantially to the rise in inflation in Europe during 2022.2

      Figure 1: Gas price and euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.

    • How do gas price shocks feed through to euro area
      inflation, and is the pass-through shock-dependent?
    • For instance, about 75% of gas imports to the euro area arrives
      through pipelines, making gas imports difficult to substitute and gas markets subject to
      3

      See for example the evidence by Rubaszek and Uddin (2020) for the US economy.

    • We analyse the importance of gas price shocks for
      euro area inflation in two steps.
    • We identify three structural shocks driving European gas prices,
      inspired by the literature on oil but tailored to the European gas market: (i) a gas supply
      shock, which reduces the supply of natural gas to the European market, increases the
      gas price and lowers gas inventories; (ii) an economic activity shock, which lifts demand
      for gas due to higher economic production, and finally (iii) a shock to gas inventories,
      when gas prices are driven by precautionary demand by gas companies.
    • First, all three identified shocks are
      important drivers of gas price dynamics, but they differ in how persistently they push
      up gas prices.
    • But when gas prices are driven by
      inventory demand shocks, the price effect typically dies out within one quarter.
    • A final key finding is that the pass-through of gas market shocks to euro area inflation appears non-linear.
    • The unprecedented volatility of gas prices
      contributed to the inflation problem in the euro area, with the gas price shocks feeding
      through producer prices, wages and persistently lifting core inflation.
    • (2022) and Alessandri and Gazzani (2023) identify gas supply shocks using VAR models,
      finding that gas price shocks lead to persistent increases in headline inflation.14 Ba?bura
      et al.
    • (2023) find positive effects of gas price shocks on core inflation in a BVAR for
      the euro area that includes one type of gas shock along a longer list of macroeconomic
      shocks.
    • 3.1

      Data

      For the gas market BVAR model, we use gas quantities, gas prices, gas inventories and
      euro area industrial production, as displayed in Figure 2.

    • (2015) to optimize

      ECB Working Paper Series No 2905

      13

      the posterior distribution.16 The vector Y includes the European gas quantity proxy, gas
      inventories, the European gas price benchmark and euro area industrial production.

    • As demand for gas increases, the gas price also rises
      while inventories fall as agents use gas in storage to partially satisfy higher demand.
    • Shocks to gas
      quantities driven by gas supply or inventory shocks tend to revert to pre-shock levels after
      around five to seven months, while economic activity shocks lead to a more long-lived
      increase in gas demand.19 Dynamics in gas inventories are more similar across shocks.
    • 3.4

      Historical events in the European gas market

      Before analysing the transmission of the different types of gas shocks to euro area prices,
      we show how the model interprets the unprecedented gas price rise in 2022 in terms of
      driving factors, and compare it with previous historical episodes of heightened gas price
      volatility as a way of validating the model.

    • Inventory shocks play a
      slightly smaller role, accounting for 17% of gas quantity and 23% of gas price fluctuations
      while the residual component (i.e.
    • 4

      Pass-through of gas price shocks to consumer prices

      The pass-through of gas price shocks to inflation is likely to be multi-faceted.

    • We first consider four outcome variables y: the European gas price, euro area HICP,
      core HICP and energy HICP.
    • Third, depending on the driving factor, gas price increases can pass through to core
      inflation in the euro area.
    • The results underline that gas price shocks can have important implications for inflation in the euro area ? depending on the driving factor of higher gas prices.
    • Casoli, C., Manera, M., and Valenti, D. ?Energy shocks in the euro area: disentangling
      the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation?.

Illinois Beach State Park Shoreline Stabilization Project First Freshwater Project to Achieve WEDG® (Waterfront Edge Design Guidelines) Verification

Retrieved on: 
Monday, February 12, 2024

New York, NY, Feb. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, the Waterfront Alliance announced that the Illinois Beach State Park Shoreline Stabilization Project is the first freshwater project to achieve WEDG® (Waterfront Edge Design Guidelines) Verification under WEDG’s Version 3.0.

Key Points: 
  • New York, NY, Feb. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, the Waterfront Alliance announced that the Illinois Beach State Park Shoreline Stabilization Project is the first freshwater project to achieve WEDG® (Waterfront Edge Design Guidelines) Verification under WEDG’s Version 3.0.
  • The Illinois Beach State Park Shoreline Stabilization Project is the first freshwater project and fourteenth overall to meet WEDG’s gold standard.
  • Illinois Beach State Park in Lake County is home to the last remaining natural shoreline in the state.
  • Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker is investing $73 million for constructing shoreline stabilization structures in three locations within Illinois Beach State Park.

The diversity within Black Canada should be recognized and amplified

Retrieved on: 
Sunday, February 11, 2024

Piecing together some of the public details about his background and activities paints a picture that helps us appreciate the textured landscape of Black Canada today.

Key Points: 
  • Piecing together some of the public details about his background and activities paints a picture that helps us appreciate the textured landscape of Black Canada today.
  • Abel was born in Toronto to Ethiopian immigrant parents and raised in Scarborough — a neighbourhood with diverse Black communities.
  • When we zoom in to individual stories like Abel’s, we can appreciate the multifaceted nature of Black Canada and the connections between contemporary and historical processes and events.

Black Canadian histories

  • Black Studies scholars Peter James Hudson and Aaron Kamugisha remind us that “despite Black Canada’s apparent marginality,” it exists and matters as it relates to our histories, cultures, ideas and politics as a country.
  • The new edited volume Unsettling the Great White North: Black Canadian History by history professors Michele A. Johnson and Funké Aladejebi underscores this point and demonstrates that we can trace Black people to every corner in Canada, across both space and time.
  • There are many historic Black communities in Canada established by people brought by, fleeing and descended from the transatlantic slave trade, including Africville, a Black settlement in Nova Scotia.

New waves of immigration

  • Demographics have shifted considerably, owing in large part to new waves and patterns in immigration trends.
  • This is also shifting broader national demographics, as Africa is now the second largest source continent representing recent immigrants in Canada.


These migration patterns are more than footnotes in Black Canadian history. This diversity intersects with vastly different migration pathways and immigration statuses, class differences, unique cultural and linguistic influences, a multitude of religious traditions, as well as a variety of local and transnational social and political practices.

Diversity of Black experiences

  • For example, experiences and insights coming from the Somali diaspora community in Etobicoke are likely different than long-established Black communities in Halifax.
  • If we care to make Black communities more visible and amplify their voices and demands for change and belonging, it is critical we also tune into these diversity of experiences and perspectives.
  • From an academic perspective, Black Studies in Canada also needs to make note of and engage with this diversity of experience.


Alpha Abebe has received funding from the the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada for previous research that has informed this article.

Woof Gang Bakery & Grooming Paints Canada Pink With Opening of First Store in Ontario

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Woof Gang Bakery & Grooming , the renowned pet care brand, is thrilled to announce the official opening of its first Canadian store in Oakville, Ontario.

Key Points: 
  • Woof Gang Bakery & Grooming , the renowned pet care brand, is thrilled to announce the official opening of its first Canadian store in Oakville, Ontario.
  • The Oakville location is the first step in a larger plan by Woof Gang to "paint Canada pink."
  • Just as Tim Hortons franchisees across Canada are celebrated for their profound connection and dedication to their local communities, Woof Gang Bakery & Grooming embodies a similar spirit of commitment and passion.
  • To learn more about Woof Gang Bakery & Grooming, visit www.woofgangbakery.com .

Black communities are using mapping to document and restore a sense of place

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, February 6, 2024

However, many issues in the history of Black Americans can get lost in a focus on well-known historical figures or other important events.

Key Points: 
  • However, many issues in the history of Black Americans can get lost in a focus on well-known historical figures or other important events.
  • Today, communities are using “restorative mapping” as a way to tell stories of Black Americans.

Maps as a visual storytelling technique

  • While most people think of maps as a useful tool to get from point A to point B, or use maps to look up places or plan trips, the reality is all maps tell stories.
  • Like many marginalized groups, Black people have used maps as a visual story-telling technique for “talking back” against their oppression.
  • They have also used maps for enlivening and giving dignity to Black experiences and histories.
  • The SNCC research department’s maps and research on racism played a pivotal role in planning civil rights protests.

Maps for restorative justice

  • Restorative mapping is an important part of the Living Black Atlas: It helps bring visibility to Black experiences that have been marginalized or forgotten.
  • An important example of restorative mapping work comes from the Honey Pot Performance, a collective of Black feminists who helped create the Chicago Black Social Culture Map, or the CBSCM.


While engaging Black Americans in the effort, the CBSCM map tells the story of Chicago through a series of artistic movements that highlight African Americans’ connection with the city. After years of gentrification and urban renewal programs that displaced Black people from the city, this project is helping remember those neighborhoods digitally. It is also inviting a broader discussion about the history of Black Chicago.

Restoring a sense of place

  • This connects with the broader restorative justice movement that seeks to address historic wrongs by documenting past and present injustices through perspectives that are often ignored or forgotten.
  • Thus, the map helps highlight how this geography is still present in Chicago in archives and people’s memories.
  • Through this digital representation of Black Chicagoans’ deep cultural roots in the city, the mapping aims to restore a sense of place.


The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

EXPEDIA DATA REVEALS THE NORTHERN LIGHTS ARE THE MOST SOUGHT-AFTER EXPERIENCE OF 2024 AS AURORA BOREALIS VISIBILITY PEAKS

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, February 1, 2024

SEATTLE, Feb. 1, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- This year's hotspots are looking a whole lot cooler with the rise of Northern Lights tourism, spurred by reports that the astronomical phenomenon will be extraordinarily visible in 2024. According to a survey commissioned by Expedia®, nearly half (42%) of Americans will prioritize aurora chasing in the year ahead over other bucket list experiences. Traveling to see the Northern Lights is more in-demand than a visit to Egypt's pyramids (36%) or a walk along the Great Wall of China (33%). Expedia searches are skyrocketing for winter trips to Northern Lights "capitals" like Lapland in Finland (+370%), Canada's Churchill (110%) and Alta in Norway (+100%).

Key Points: 
  • According to a survey commissioned by Expedia®, nearly half (42%) of Americans will prioritize aurora chasing in the year ahead over other bucket list experiences.
  • Expedia searches are skyrocketing for winter trips to Northern Lights "capitals" like Lapland in Finland (+370%), Canada's Churchill (110%) and Alta in Norway (+100%).
  • To help travelers plan, Expedia has released a Northern Lights Insider Guide packed with insights on trending destinations, booking hacks, photography tips and ideal itineraries.
  • Get the Northern Lights Insider Guide on the Expedia Newsroom, and visit the Expedia Magazine for in-depth, shoppable travel guides for six iconic Northern Lights destinations including Yellowknife, Tromsø, Finnish Lapland, Churchill, Reykjavik and Fairbanks.

HOME EQUITY DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS U.S. DURING FOURTH QUARTER BUT REMAINS STRONG

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, February 1, 2024

IRVINE, Calif., Feb. 1, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, today released its fourth-quarter 2023 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report, which shows that 46.1 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich in the fourth quarter, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by those properties was no more than half of their estimated market values.

Key Points: 
  • The portion of mortgaged homes that was equity-rich in the fourth quarter of 2023 decreased from 47.4 percent in the third quarter of 2023, marking the second straight quarterly decline.
  • The latest figure also was down from 48 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • The portion of mortgaged homes considered seriously underwater rose nationwide from one in 40 during the third quarter of 2023 to one in 38 during the fourth quarter.
  • Seventeen of the 20 counties with the smallest share of equity-rich homes in the fourth quarter of 2023 were in the South.

The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation

Retrieved on: 
Sunday, February 4, 2024
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Key Points: 

    Quantifying financial stability risks for monetary policy

    Retrieved on: 
    Saturday, February 3, 2024

    They could rapidly tighten monetary policy at the risk of fuelling financial distress after years of ultra-low interest rates and balance sheet expansion.

    Key Points: 
    • They could rapidly tighten monetary policy at the risk of fuelling financial distress after years of ultra-low interest rates and balance sheet expansion.
    • Quantifying financial stability trade-offs therefore requires a way to gauge the three-way interaction between monetary policy, financial stability conditions and tail risks to the economy.

    Millennial HR Transforms Corporate Landscape Through Remarkable Innovation and Tech Prowess

    Retrieved on: 
    Monday, January 29, 2024

    CUPERTINO, Calif., Jan. 29, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- Executive Vice President and CHRO Dolphe Magloire Sr. shares insight on the importance of digital and cultural transformation in companies and organizations. In recent years, the Millennial Generation, born between 1981 and 1996, has emerged as a transformative force in the corporate world. Often criticized for being lazy and entitled, millennials, in fact, bring a unique set of qualities to the table - adaptability, creativity, and a commitment to transparency.

    Key Points: 
    • In recent years, the Millennial Generation, born between 1981 and 1996, has emerged as a transformative force in the corporate world.
    • As the torch passes to millennial HR Vice Presidents (HRVPs) and Chief Human Resources Officers (CHROs), they bring a relatable touch, transforming how employees perceive HR and organizations.
    • In contrast to the traditional administrative role of HR, the millennial generation of HR leaders is driven by the values of fairness, focusing on people science, and technology.
    • As millennials take the reins in HR leadership, this generation is not just shaping HR; they are leading a holistic transformation of the workplace experience.