A.5 | Jotup

Dominant currency pricing in international trade of services

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Thursday, April 25, 2024

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Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions
in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar
(USD) plays a dominant role in services trade.
JEL: F14, F31, F41
Keywords: dominant currency paradigm, international trade, services.
Related research has
shown that the US dollar (USD) exchange rate is a major source of swings in
global trade in goods?a ?dominant currency pricing? (DCP) phenomenon?since
most goods traded internationally are invoiced and sticky in USD.
Yet it is also key to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
in services for several reasons.
First, global trade in services is big?accounting for
about a quarter of global gross trade flows and for around 40% in terms of valueadded trade.
Third, and relatedly, the
future of globalisation might be in trade in intermediate services?as progress with
digitech lowers technological barriers to such trade across borders.
But perhaps the main reason is that trade in services is conceptually different
from trade in goods.
Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose
the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and
that examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between trade in goods
and services using direct evidence? hitherto unavailable?on patterns of currency
choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
Work on dominant currency pricing has
almost exclusively focused on trade in goods.
One reason is that data on patterns
in invoicing currency for trade in services are ?virtually nonexistent? (Adler et al.
Yet it is important to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
in services for several reasons.
Using the exporter?s (or producer) currency in exports is known in the literature as producer
currency pricing (PCP), while using the importer?s currency is known as local currency pricing (LCP)
and using a third currency is known as vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose the
currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and that
examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between international trade in
goods and services using direct evidence ? hitherto unavailable ? on patterns of
currency choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
First,
we rule out compositional effects, that is that differences in the use of currencies
reflect differences in trade partners in services vs. goods trade.
Both in extra-EU and intra-EU trade, the EUR is the
most widely used currency, be it on the export or import side.
Based
on the framework, we stress which factors should determine currency choices in
international trade, and to what extent one should expect differences between
services trade and goods trade.
Second, it can price in the importer?s currency
(local currency pricing, LCP).4 Third, it can use a third currency, say currency
v (vehicle currency pricing, VCP).
That is,
the currency choice problem is equivalent to determining the currency in which the
desired price is least volatile.
(2022)
provide systematic empirical evidence ? firm size and exposure to foreign currencies
in imported inputs ? should also shape currency choices in services trade.
Dominant currency pricing in USD ? services vs. goods trade
Having established that currency choice in international trade of services is an
active firm-level decision as well as the determinants of this decision, we now
8.
Services and goods exports: prevalence of different pricing strategies (percent)
Notes: The table shows the shares (in value terms) of different pricing strategies: producer currency
pricing (PCP), local currency pricing (LCP) and vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
To make comparisons with goods trade, we rely on Eurostat?s
macro data on international trade in goods by invoivcing currency.
If intra-EU trade is more important in services than
in goods trade, this could hence be an explanation for the lower prevalence of the
USD in services trade.
We showed
that while the USD is also extensively used as a vehicle currency in services trade, its
prevalence is systematically lower than in goods trade.
Hence for all travel services exports
the invoicing currency is the EUR; for travel imports it is the currency of the
destination of travel (i.e.
Also for these
ECB Working Paper Series No 2932

33

services it seems plausible that trade does not take place vis-?-vis all counterparts
in each currency.
Figure B.2: Share of international trade in services in global GDP broken down by type (%)
Notes: Authors? calculations using World Bank and World Trade Organization data.
An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title ?Currency choices and the role of the
U.S. dollar in international services trade?.

Monetary asmmetries without (and with) price stickiness

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Friday, April 19, 2024

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Key Points:

Correction: Notice to attend the Annual General Meeting of Vitrolife AB (publ)

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Thursday, April 4, 2024

Remuneration, Annual, Annual report, TSR, Motivation, Social Security, Welfare, Euroclear, AGM, LTIP, A.5, Subsidiary, Leaver, Treasury, Swedish, Election Committee (Hong Kong), Nasdaq Stockholm, Security (finance)

GOTHENBURG, Sweden, April 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The shareholders of Vitrolife AB (publ), corporate identity number 556354-3452 (`the Company') are hereby invited to attend the Annual General Meeting of shareholders on Thursday 25 April 2024 at 4.00 pm at the Elite Park Avenue Hotel, Kungsportsavenyn 36-38 in Gothenburg, Sweden. The entrance opens at 3.30 pm.

Key Points:

Allotment of Performance Shares within LTIP 2024 will be made during a limited period of time following the Annual General Meeting 2027.
Performance Shares will be allotted if the average annual TSR is at least 7.5 percent (the minimum level).
The intention is that the Board shall launch LTIP 2024 as soon as practically possible after the Annual General Meeting.
Resolutions resolved upon by the Annual General Meeting 2024 shall not be included in a re-calculation of the number of shares.

Business as usual: bank climate commitments, lending, and engagement

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Tuesday, April 2, 2024

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Key Points:

Climate transition risk in the banking sector: what can prudential regulation do?

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Saturday, February 17, 2024

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Key Points:

Managing the transition to central bank digital currency

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Wednesday, February 14, 2024

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Key Points:

Gas price shocks and euro area inflation

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Tuesday, February 13, 2024

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We document

Key Points:

We document
how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices
depending on the underlying shock driving them.
How do gas price shocks feed through to euro area
inflation, and is the pass-through shock-dependent?
We analyse the importance of gas price shocks
for euro area inflation in two steps.
We identify three structural shocks driving European gas prices,
inspired by the literature on oil but tailored to the European gas market: (i) a gas supply
shock, which reduces the supply of natural gas to the European market, increases the
gas price and lowers gas inventories; (ii) an economic activity shock, which lifts demand
for gas due to higher economic production, and finally (iii) a shock to gas inventories,
when gas prices are driven by precautionary demand by gas companies.
First, all three identified shocks are
important drivers of gas price dynamics, but they differ in how persistently they push
ECB Working Paper Series No 2905

2

up gas prices.
The effect on euro area HICP of a shock to gas supply is more
persistent and somewhat higher than when gas prices are driven by economic activity
shocks.
A final key finding is that the pass-through of gas market shocks to euro area inflation
appears non-linear.
The unprecedented volatility of gas prices
contributed to the inflation problem in the euro area, with the gas price shocks feeding
through producer prices, wages and persistently lifting core inflation.
More expensive
energy contributed substantially to the rise in inflation in Europe during 2022.2
Figure 1: Gas price and euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.
How do gas price shocks feed through to euro area
inflation, and is the pass-through shock-dependent?
For instance, about 75% of gas imports to the euro area arrives
through pipelines, making gas imports difficult to substitute and gas markets subject to
3
See for example the evidence by Rubaszek and Uddin (2020) for the US economy.
We analyse the importance of gas price shocks for
euro area inflation in two steps.
We identify three structural shocks driving European gas prices,
inspired by the literature on oil but tailored to the European gas market: (i) a gas supply
shock, which reduces the supply of natural gas to the European market, increases the
gas price and lowers gas inventories; (ii) an economic activity shock, which lifts demand
for gas due to higher economic production, and finally (iii) a shock to gas inventories,
when gas prices are driven by precautionary demand by gas companies.
First, all three identified shocks are
important drivers of gas price dynamics, but they differ in how persistently they push
up gas prices.
But when gas prices are driven by
inventory demand shocks, the price effect typically dies out within one quarter.
A final key finding is that the pass-through of gas market shocks to euro area inflation appears non-linear.
The unprecedented volatility of gas prices
contributed to the inflation problem in the euro area, with the gas price shocks feeding
through producer prices, wages and persistently lifting core inflation.
(2022) and Alessandri and Gazzani (2023) identify gas supply shocks using VAR models,
finding that gas price shocks lead to persistent increases in headline inflation.14 Ba?bura
et al.
(2023) find positive effects of gas price shocks on core inflation in a BVAR for
the euro area that includes one type of gas shock along a longer list of macroeconomic
shocks.
3.1
Data

For the gas market BVAR model, we use gas quantities, gas prices, gas inventories and
euro area industrial production, as displayed in Figure 2.
(2015) to optimize
ECB Working Paper Series No 2905

13

the posterior distribution.16 The vector Y includes the European gas quantity proxy, gas
inventories, the European gas price benchmark and euro area industrial production.
As demand for gas increases, the gas price also rises
while inventories fall as agents use gas in storage to partially satisfy higher demand.
Shocks to gas
quantities driven by gas supply or inventory shocks tend to revert to pre-shock levels after
around five to seven months, while economic activity shocks lead to a more long-lived
increase in gas demand.19 Dynamics in gas inventories are more similar across shocks.
3.4
Historical events in the European gas market

Before analysing the transmission of the different types of gas shocks to euro area prices,
we show how the model interprets the unprecedented gas price rise in 2022 in terms of
driving factors, and compare it with previous historical episodes of heightened gas price
volatility as a way of validating the model.
Inventory shocks play a
slightly smaller role, accounting for 17% of gas quantity and 23% of gas price fluctuations
while the residual component (i.e.
4
Pass-through of gas price shocks to consumer prices

The pass-through of gas price shocks to inflation is likely to be multi-faceted.
We first consider four outcome variables y: the European gas price, euro area HICP,
core HICP and energy HICP.
Third, depending on the driving factor, gas price increases can pass through to core
inflation in the euro area.
The results underline that gas price shocks can have important implications for inflation in the euro area ? depending on the driving factor of higher gas prices.
Casoli, C., Manera, M., and Valenti, D. ?Energy shocks in the euro area: disentangling
the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation?.

Financial stability risks from energy derivatives markets

Retrieved on:

Saturday, November 26, 2022

= Financial stability risks from energy derivatives markets =

Key Points:

= Financial stability risks from energy derivatives markets =
Published as part of the Financial Stability Review, November 2022.
Energy sector firms use energy derivatives under different strategies, depending on their main area of activity, business model and exposure to risk in physical markets.
The significant volatility and a surge in prices seen in energy markets since March 2022 have resulted in large margin calls, generating liquidity risks for derivatives users.
European energy prices and stylised representation of players active in the physical energy market
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and ECB staff calculations.
The extreme price movements over recent months highlight the importance of energy derivatives markets for hedging risks in the energy sector, as well as some of the pressures that can arise in these markets.
This special feature provides an overview of the European energy derivatives market, with a focus on natural gas and power.
It analyses the impact of extreme energy prices on the structure of energy markets, the liquidity stress faced by entities with the largest exposures to market risk and the risks that their vulnerabilities may pose to their counterparties in derivatives and credit markets.
Energy sector companies are key users of energy derivatives, and the number of firms active in the market has increased in 2022.
Of the 1,700 firms active in the euro area energy derivatives market between September 2021 and October 2022, a quarter belong to the energy production chain, meaning they are extracting oil and gas or distributing energy.
On average, the number of firms active in energy derivatives increased by 30% between January and September 2022.
Most positions belong to a few large utilities or energy companies which use derivatives to hedge their operations against market risk.
[5] Such a high concentration of positions might raise financial stability concerns, as it increases the risk of disorderly market functioning.
[6] In general, energy derivatives require relatively high margining, reflecting the generally large volatility of energy prices.
Overview of direct and indirect risks from increased volatility in energy markets and gross exposures in energy derivatives per market segment
Sources: EMIR data and authors calculations.
Commodity swaps traded in OTC markets can partially mitigate energy firms liquidity needs as margins are lower for bilaterally cleared trades.
A more significant shift by utilities and energy firms towards the OTC space would imply greater risks for counterparties and the financial system.
Some firms trading energy derivatives are relying on bank credit to deal with the consequences of rising energy costs.
Overall, this evidence might signal energy firms needs to finance inflated working capital, precautionary inventories and high liquidity demand on energy spot and derivatives markets ( Chart A.7, panel a).
A quarter of energy firms deal with the same set of banks for obtaining credit and client-clearing services for derivatives.

Secure Identity Alliance Awarded Qualified ITU-T Reference Organization Status

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

BRUSSELS, Oct. 12, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Secure Identity Alliance (SIA), the global non-profit association representing actors and organizations active across the digital identity ecosystem, today announced that it has been qualified under Procedure A.5 by the International Telecommunication Union's Standardization Division (ITU-T).

Key Points:

BRUSSELS, Oct. 12, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Secure Identity Alliance (SIA), the global non-profit association representing actors and organizations active across the digital identity ecosystem, today announced that it has been qualified under Procedure A.5 by the International Telecommunication Union's Standardization Division (ITU-T).
In 2019 we launched the OSIA initiative to develop a framework of open standards for the interoperability of identity systems.
Secure Identity Alliance (SIA) is a global non-profit association representing actors and organizations and adjacent industries active across the digital identity ecosystem.
SIA's mission is to unify the ecosystem of identity and unlock the full power of identity so that people, economy, and society thrive.

Secure Identity Alliance Awarded Qualified ITU-T Reference Organization Status

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

BRUSSELS, Oct. 12, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Secure Identity Alliance (SIA), the global non-profit association representing actors and organizations active across the digital identity ecosystem, today announced that it has been qualified under Procedure A.5 by the International Telecommunication Union's Standardization Division (ITU-T).

Key Points:

BRUSSELS, Oct. 12, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Secure Identity Alliance (SIA), the global non-profit association representing actors and organizations active across the digital identity ecosystem, today announced that it has been qualified under Procedure A.5 by the International Telecommunication Union's Standardization Division (ITU-T).
In 2019 we launched the OSIA initiative to develop a framework of open standards for the interoperability of identity systems.
Secure Identity Alliance (SIA) is a global non-profit association representing actors and organizations and adjacent industries active across the digital identity ecosystem.
SIA's mission is to unify the ecosystem of identity and unlock the full power of identity so that people, economy, and society thrive.