University of Essex

• Reports from the front lines of the various conflict zones reveal daily just how difficult Ukraine is finding its summer counter-offensive.
• “The number of mines on the territory that our troops have retaken is utterly mad,” he told Ukrainian television this week.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: after two months of slow progress the long-awaited counteroffensive is picking up speed.

The trouble with the Wagner Group

• This is a 60-mile stretch of Polish territory on its border with Lithuania, linking Belarus with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
• Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko mischievously quipped to Vladimir Putin that he might not be able to control the Wagner mercenaries who, he said, were itching to “go west”.
• Natasha Lindstaedt, professor of international relations at the University of Essex with a special interest in non-state paramilitary groups, says that while Lukashenko was clearly joking, mercenary companies such as the Wagner Group are notoriously difficult to control.
• Read more:
  Wagner Group boss and Belarus's president are still manoeuvring for power

Scramble for Africa

• But what Putin may not be able to achieve through diplomacy in terms of influence in Africa, Russia’s Wagner Group proxies appear to be securing by propping up unstable regimes (and destabilising others) across west Africa.
• Read more:
  Russia-Africa summit: Putin offers unconvincing giveaways in a desperate bid to make up for killing the Ukraine grain deal

Crimean Tatars’ guerrilla war

• Another important non-state group that is playing an increasingly prominent role in the war – this time on Ukraine’s side – are the Crimean Tatars.
• It is waging what appears to be a highly effective guerrilla campaign, disrupting logistics, sabotaging key targets and stoking discontent against – and within – the Russian army.
• Read more:
  Crimean bridge attack is another blow to Putin's strongman image

Russians on the home front

• Matveeva has spoken with ordinary Russians who either donate funds or run grassroots campaigns to provide everything from stretchers and medical supplies to drones and other weaponry to help fill perceived shortfalls.
• But there’s a sense that by helping the men at the front, it could reduce the prospect that their own sons might be called up.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: how Russians are rallying on the home front to support 'their boys'

Nato matters

• You’d be inclined to agree with the description proffered by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that this was a “pyrrhic victory”.
• Meanwhile Ukrainian forces continue to launch counterattacks in the area – so Russia’s confidence could well prove to be misplaced.
• And the battle has caused a great deal of friction between the regular army, the Wagner Group and some of the hardline Russian commentators.
• While all this has been going on, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, has been on a bit of a world tour.

Fighting on Russian soil

• But analysts of this conflict have access to open-source intelligence that makes pinpointing where the fighting going on a great deal more accurate.
• The fighting, in a number of small settlements in the Belgorod oblast close to the Ukraine border, appears to have involved a mix of pro-Ukraine Russian partisans and members of an anti-Putin neo-Nazi militia – although none of this has been fully confirmed.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: what we know so far about reports of battles being fought across the border in Russia

  .

The trouble with the Wagner Group

• The aforementioned Wagner Group boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been bitterly complaining about Russian military leadership.
• “But what”, Prigozhin speculated, “if it turns out that this grandfather is a complete asshole?”

  Read more:
  Putin under pressure: the military melodrama between the Wagner group and Russia’s armed forces

  Incidentally, the UK government is considering designating the Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation, the first government to do so.

• Read more:
  Wagner Group: what it would mean for the UK to designate Putin's private army a 'terrorist organisation'

Russians are Europeans too

• Or Lenchner, CEO of the industry-leading public web data platform Bright Data, last month joined members of the UK Parliament at a roundtable discussion looking at issues around ethics and regulation in data and alternative intelligence (AI).
• He outlined how, as a responsible leader in the web data domain, Bright Data is taking steps to self-regulate and, hopefully, set ethical standards that point the way to effective regulation.
• As one of the world’s biggest public web data platforms, Bright Data feels a sense of responsibility to help ensure that data is collected and used in the most ethical ways.
• Participation in the Inquiry is a continuation of Bright Data’s support for the UK Government in implementing the National Data Strategy (NDS).

• This is because during upswings in the business cycle banks tend to overestimate the creditworthiness of their borrowers, often resulting in excessive credit expansion, while they rapidly cut lending during downturns.
• In our recent paper (Fiordelisi et al., 2022), we focus on the impact of model-based regulation on lending during the pandemic.
• This could exacerbate procyclicality, worsen the economic downturn and potentially have negative consequences for the overall stability of the banking sector.
• For example, there are model parameters specifically designed to increase banks’ resilience during economic downturns that should support lending during such times.
• While the trends in lending for the two groups were largely comparable before the pandemic, after March 2020 IRB banks cut lending significantly compared with SA banks.
• Loans to non-financial corporations (NFCs)

  Notes: “SA banks” are banks reporting all corporate credit risk exposures using a standardised approach.

• Banks that include these features in their models continue to provide credit to the corporate sector in bad times, thereby also supporting the economic recovery.
• (2016, 2022) which show that in Germany, model-based risk estimates systematically understated actual default rates and had a procyclical effect.
• model-based regulation) aims to ensure that an increase in risks is swiftly taken into account, which supports the financial soundness of individual banks.
• At the same time, the use of these models generally induces lower lending to firms during crises.