Labor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes
A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.
- A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.
- Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (steady).
- Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped one point to -9, while Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -13.
- His net approval is still well below zero, and hasn’t recovered to its level before the Voice referendum defeat.
Essential poll: 48–46 to Labor
- In last week’s federal Essential poll, conducted January 24–28 from a sample of 1,201, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided (49–46 in December).
- Labor has led by one-to-three points in all Essential polls since late October.
- Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 7% for all Others (down two) and 5% undecided (steady).
- Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor would have about a 53–47 lead in this poll by 2022 election preference flows.
Morgan poll and a second Queensland byelection
- In last week’s federal Morgan poll, conducted January 22–28 from a sample of 1,688, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week.
- Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 31% Labor (down 1.5), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 13% for all Others (down one).
- I covered the March 16 Queensland state byelection in Inala last fortnight.
- A second Queensland byelection will also occur on March 16 after Ipswich West’s Labor member Jim Madden resigned to contest the Ipswich local government elections on March 16.
Biden wins 96% in South Carolina Democratic primary
- At Saturday’s United States Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina, Joe Biden won 96.2% of the vote, Marianne Williamson 2.1% and Dean Phillips 1.7%.
- This result makes it all but certain that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
- In the Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley nationally by 73.6–17.2 in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.
- The next important contest is the February 24 Republican primary in South Carolina, Haley’s home state.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.