Politics | Jotup

Domestic politics will be a key factor in how far things escalate between Israel and Iran

Retrieved on:

Friday, April 19, 2024

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Following Iran’s barrage of drone and missile attacks on April 13, Israel has retaliated and conducted a strike attack near the city of Isfahan in southern Iran.

Key Points:

Following Iran’s barrage of drone and missile attacks on April 13, Israel has retaliated and conducted a strike attack near the city of Isfahan in southern Iran.
Both sides have now matched each other in striking targets within each other’s national border.
However, details of the extent of any damage done by Israel’s strike are disputed and are being played down by Iran.

The politics of status

Domestic issues can play an important role here, in how the political and military elites of both states decide to react.
Despite the majority of the Israeli public being in favour of the campaign to eradicate Hamas in Gaza, he remains unpopular.
Hence there are good reasons for him to respond military to the challenge posed by Iran.

Regime forged in war

Historically, the trauma of war has been used by the Islamic Republic to foster nationalism among the population.
Following the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the loss of Iranian life, which totalled in the hundreds of thousands, played a huge role in cementing “the formation and empowerment of the Islamic Republic”.
Militarily contesting Israel can be perceived as a means of solidifying the regime’s position internally and enhancing the country’s image within the region.
At present, neither side has the ability to send an expeditionary force into each other’s territory.

Ben Soodavar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Israel hits back at Iran: How domestic politics is determining Israeli actions

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Friday, April 19, 2024

Knesset, Hamas, Pressure, Quds Force, Benjamin Netanyahu, Politics, Hezbollah, National Unity, Ambiguity, Axis of Resistance, National security, Axis, Soil, Government, Human, Violence

Notably, Israel’s strike against Iran appears to have been more symbolic than substantive.

Key Points:

Notably, Israel’s strike against Iran appears to have been more symbolic than substantive.
Nevertheless, the overnight Israeli strike is the latest escalation in tensions between the two countries.

Reputations at stake

To do otherwise would have damaged the Iranian government’s reputation among both its allies and its citizens.
But the form that Iranian retaliation took is a key indication of Iran’s intentions.
Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system and U.S. military bases in the region made the likely impact of Iran’s attack minimal.

The proxy dilemma

Since the Iranian Revolution, Iran, through the Quds Force and its predecessors, has actively courted several proxy groups in the Middle East to increase its strategic influence.
Hezbollah came into existence in response to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon in the 1980s, and received extensive support from Iran.
While these proxy groups have increased Iran’s political influence and strategic options in the Middle East, they can simultaneously be a burden for the country’s leadership because they aren’t under Iran’s complete control.
For Iran, this presents a strategic dilemma.

A coalition of many

The 2022 elections returned a fractured Knesset, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was only able to form a coalition government that included several far-right parties.
The small size of his majority meant that far-right partners were able to demand concessions to support his government.
The government’s inability to negotiate a release for the remaining hostages held by Hamas remains a festering wound in Israeli politics.
National Unity’s leader, Benny Gantz, formed a war cabinet with Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant to direct the war effort.

Netanyahu’s hand forced?

The smaller far-right parties in Netanyahu’s coalition that are outside the war cabinet, however, likely forced the prime minister’s hand.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the ultra-nationalist Otzma Yehudit party, has stated that Israel needs to “go crazy” in its response.

What’s next?

It eliminated a leader of the Quds Force, and Iran’s retaliation did not manage to breach the defences of Israel or its allies.
Now, the world waits to see if Israel’s latest strike against Iran leads to a broader regional escalation.

James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Grattan on Friday: Ethnic tensions will complicate the Albanese government’s multicultural policy reform

Retrieved on:

Thursday, April 18, 2024

“In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed terrorism as Australia’s principal security concern,” he said.

Key Points:

“In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed terrorism as Australia’s principal security concern,” he said.
Tensions, especially in western Sydney, are much elevated because of the Middle East conflict.
And the Wakeley attack came just two days after the Bondi Junction shopping centre stabbings, which killed six people.
While that atrocity did not fall under the definition of “terrorism”, inevitably the two incidents were conflated by an alarmed public.
The challenge for political leaders is not just dealing with the immediate increasing threats to cohesion, but with longer term policy.
Andrew Jakubowicz, emeritus professor of sociology at the University of Technology Sydney, highlights the three separate elements of multiculturalism.

“Settlement policy, which deals with arrival, survival and orientation, and the emergence of bonding within the group and finding employment, housing and education
"Multicultural policy, which ensures that institutions in society identify and respond to needs over the life course and in changing life circumstances, and
"Community Relations policy, which includes building skills in intercultural relations, engagement with the power hierarchies of society and the inclusion of diversity into the fabric of decision-making in society - from politics to education to health to the arts.”

The Albanese government last year commissioned an independent review of the present multicultural framework.
Although the review is not due for release until mid-year, the May budget is likely to see some initiatives.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

5 years after the Mueller report into Russian meddling in the 2016 US election on behalf of Trump: 4 essential reads

Retrieved on:

Thursday, April 18, 2024

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But the nearly two-year investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election dominated headlines – and revealed what has become Trump’s trademark denial of any wrongdoing.

Key Points:

But the nearly two-year investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election dominated headlines – and revealed what has become Trump’s trademark denial of any wrongdoing.
For Trump, the Russia investigation was the first “ridiculous hoax” and “witch hunt.” Mueller didn’t help matters.
“While this report does not conclude that the president committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him,” the special counsel stated.

1. Obstruction of justice

But Orentlicher wrote that obstruction of justice is “a complicated matter.” According to federal law, obstruction occurs when a person tries to impede or influence a trial, investigation or other official proceeding with threats or corrupt intent.
But in a March 24, 2019, letter to Congress summarizing Mueller’s findings, then-Attorney General William Barr said he saw insufficient evidence to prove that Trump had obstructed justice.

So it was up to Congress to further a case against Trump on obstruction charges, but then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi declined, arguing that it would be too divisive for the nation and Trump “just wasn’t worth it.”

Read more:
Trump and obstruction of justice: An explainer

2. Why didn’t the full report become public?

Charles Tiefer is a professor of law at the University of Baltimore and expected that Trump and Barr would do “everything in their power to keep secret the full report and, equally important, the materials underlying the report.” Tiefer was right.
To keep Mueller’s report private, Barr invoked grand jury secrecy – the rule that attorneys, jurors and others “must not disclose a matter occurring before the grand jury.”

Trump and Barr also claimed executive privilege to further prevent the release of the report. Though it cannot be used to shield evidence of a crime, Tiefer explained, “that’s where Barr’s exoneration of Trump really helped the White House.”

Read more:
How Trump and Barr could stretch claims of executive privilege and grand jury secrecy

3. Alternative facts

Perhaps the most disappointing finding, they argued, is that there are no known fixes to this problem.
They found that fact-checking has little impact on changing individual beliefs, and more education only sharpens the divisions.
And with that, they wrote, “the U.S. continues to inch ever closer to a public square in which consensus perceptions are unavailable and facts are irrelevant.”
Read more:
From 'Total exoneration!'

4. Trump’s demand for loyalty

What sets Trump apart, Ouyang wrote, is his “exceptional emphasis on loyalty.” Trump expects personal loyalty from his staff – especially from his attorney general.
“Trump values loyalty over other critical qualities like competence and honesty.
Read more:
Why does a president demand loyalty from people who work for him?

South Africa’s electricity crisis: a series of failures over 30 years have left a dim legacy

Retrieved on:

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Back then only 36% of all South Africans had electricity in their homes.

Key Points:

Back then only 36% of all South Africans had electricity in their homes.
The development programme promised to double that number by electrifying an additional 2.5 million homes by 2000.
This seemed achievable – during the 1980s, the state-owned power utility Eskom’s build programme was so aggressive it had surplus electricity.
By 1994, South Africa’s coal industry was generating high quality coal which was exported mainly to Europe.

What went wrong

Eskom tried to convince the government to allow it to build more power stations.
But under the macroeconomic policy, the government decided that new power stations must be built by Black empowered businesses.
For that to work, the prices of electricity needed to increase to make it financially viable for the businesses.
The White Paper was accurate in predicting when the country would run out of power.
If the Eskom CEOs had signed the power purchase agreements, it would have brought online 5GW of renewables.

The current dilemma

This provided for a very large increase in the number of renewables and the closure of several coal-fired power stations.
But Mantashe later delayed the procurement of renewables, deepening the crisis at Eskom.
Dividing the utility up was approved in 2019 but the National Transmission Company was only set up in 2024.
Ramaphosa appointed an electricity minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, and released the Energy Action Plan to end power cuts.

Solutions

It dramatically increases the emphasis on gas – it is a gas infrastructure plan and South Africa doesn’t have much gas.
The country will have to import gas and pay in US dollars, thus increasing its dependence on the dollar.
Instead, South Africa needs to transition to renewable energy plus backup, which is batteries and a substantial gas reserve.

Mark Swilling is a Non-Executive Director of the Eskom National Transmission Company of South Africa. He writes in his academic capacity. He has received funding for his research from National Research Foundation, VW Foundation, Open Society Foundation and European Climate Fund.

‘We have thousands of Modis’: the secret behind the BJP’s enduring success in India

Retrieved on:

Thursday, April 18, 2024

These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a likely third consecutive victory in the Indian general election, starting today.

Key Points:

These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a likely third consecutive victory in the Indian general election, starting today.
As part of my research on members of right-wing populist parties, I’ve conducted interviews with dozens of BJP party members and officials.
(They spoke to me on condition of anonymity, so are only represented by their first initial here).

A well-oiled campaign machine

Maintaining a large membership-based organisation provides the BJP with a campaign machine that has no equal in India.
The focus of this organisation is on the polling booth.
Each booth has ten women, and each woman is allotted 15 houses where they roam around for about three days [before election day].
The BJP is effectively engaging in micro-campaigning on a nationwide scale, and so gaining a significant advantage in mobilising voters.

Training members in Hindu nationalism

In addition, the BJP is the Indian party with the most well-defined ideological platform, which combines fervent Hindu nationalism with right-wing populism based on religious polarisation.
Its grassroots organisation enables the BJP to socialise and train its members in this ideology.
My research on both BJP party voters and members shows how these people hold right-wing populist attitudes and worldviews that closely match the party’s platform.
In the case of grassroots members, these ideologies are ingrained through an extensive training network.

Bringing welfare to the poor

Alongside Hindu nationalism, the expansion of welfare to hundreds of millions of low-income earners is another reason why Modi is so popular.
He always makes sure to put the words “prime minister” before the names of welfare programs and print his face on handouts.
When it comes to welfare program implementation, however, it is BJP party members who do the heavy lifting.
According to my interviews, this was the main activity of party members, whether in the form of cleaning the streets, distributing food or setting up bank accounts for the poor.

Party survival is a priority

Finally, the extensive grassroots party organisation enables the BJP to thrive by providing a steady source of candidates, officials and leaders.
Members affirmed that the BJP, contrary to other parties, is meritocratic when it comes to the distribution of offices.
As N., a Marathi car shop owner, explained:
The BJP is not dominated by one family.
Maintaining a large membership also facilitates the BJP’s survival in the long run.

Sofia Ammassari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

It is industry, not government, that is getting in the way of a ‘just transition’ for oil and gas workers

Retrieved on:

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Canada’s oil and gas sector is in the throes of profound change driven by shifting consumer demand and global commitments to dramatically lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Key Points:

Canada’s oil and gas sector is in the throes of profound change driven by shifting consumer demand and global commitments to dramatically lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
But are industry and politicians sincere in their affection for oil and gas workers?
Or, are energy workers merely a convenient vehicle to shield the industry from change that many Canadians believe is inevitable?

Picket lines

We found the company used expanding pipeline capacity and Canada’s emission reduction policies to justify its push to force workers to take concessions.
The lockout came to an end in June 2020 when Local 594 members ratified an agreement with FCL.

“Just” transition?

Just this month federal Conservatives, conservative provincial governments and protesters came out strong against the increase to the Trudeau government’s signature climate policy — the price on carbon.
The Liberal government has faced significant backlash against its other climate policies as well, including the oil and gas emissions cap.
Conservatives position themselves as the voice of fossil fuel workers, who they cast as victims of carbon pricing and other federal environmental policies.
Shuttered factories and their laid-off employees are victims of Liberal anti-oil policies, industry proponents insist.

Questions unanswered

Time and again governments, local police and courts advanced the interests of industry over those of unionized workers.
Or, will the inevitable winding down of extractive fossil fuel industries lead to acrimonious labour relations and social injustice?
The path designed by powerful oil and gas interests is not one that puts workers or communities first.

Emily Eaton receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
Andrew Stevens receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the University of Regina (U of R fund: Unifor Scholar in Labour Relations).

Albanese government has ‘irreparably damaged’ Australia’s relations with Israel: Peter Dutton

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

She said the international community “was now considering the question of Palestinian statehood as a way of building momentum towards a two-state solution”.

Key Points:

She said the international community “was now considering the question of Palestinian statehood as a way of building momentum towards a two-state solution”.
On Wednesday, when asked if Australia was willing to recognise Palestine as a state, Wong said the government had made “no such decision”.
She stressed what needed to happen immediately was for Hamas to release the hostages and for a humanitarian ceasefire.
"A Coalition government is committed to seeing a prioritisation on reading, writing and maths, including through explicit instruction teaching.
“A Coalition government under my leadership will rebuild our national confidence and camaraderie by focusing on the things which unite us”.

Talking to Americans reveals the diversity behind the shared opinion ‘the country is on the wrong track’

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Wednesday, April 10, 2024

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One ABC News/Ipsos survey in November 2023 showed three-quarters of Americans believed the country was on the “wrong track.” Only 23% believed it was headed in the “right direction.” And the survey was not an outlier.

Key Points:

One ABC News/Ipsos survey in November 2023 showed three-quarters of Americans believed the country was on the “wrong track.” Only 23% believed it was headed in the “right direction.” And the survey was not an outlier.
Poll after poll shows a sizable majority of the nation’s residents disapprove of its course.
Have Americans – long seen as upbeat, can-do optimists – really grown dour about the state of the nation and where it’s headed?

An ‘astonishing finding’

“Do you feel things in the country are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” That question or one very much like it is well known to anyone who has glanced at a poll story or studied the data of a survey in the past 50 years.

These public opinion surveys, often sponsored by news organizations, seek to understand where the public stands on the key issues of the day.
Political parties and candidates often conduct their own surveys with a version of the “right direction/wrong track” question to better understand their constituencies and potential voters.
In 2023, we worked with Ipsos to survey more than 5,000 people across the country in all those community types.
One of the big ones: In every community we surveyed, at least 70% said the country was on the “wrong track.” And that is an astonishing finding.

Agreement for different reasons

The community types we study are radically different from each other.
Some are full of people with bachelor’s degrees, while others have few.
Some of the communities voted for President Joe Biden by landslide numbers in 2020, while others did the same for Donald Trump.
Given those differences, how could they be in such a high level of agreement on the direction of the country?
In 2020, Biden won 86% of the vote in big metropolitan Manhattan, and Trump won 60% in aging, rural Chenango.

Opposite views in same answer

There may be some value in chronicling Americans’ unhappiness with the state of their country, but as a stand-alone question, “right direction/wrong track” is not very helpful.
It turns out that one person’s idea about the country being on the wrong track may be completely the opposite of another person’s version of America’s wrong direction.

Dante Chinni receives funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation for his work on the American Communities Project and is a contributor to the Wall Street Journal. Ari Pinkus receives funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation for the American Communities Project.

Bollywood is playing a large supporting role in India’s elections

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Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Propaganda, Election Commission, Politics, Marriage, Communication, Love Story, BJP, Muslims, Research, History, Poverty, Bharatiya Janata Party, Kashmiri Muslims, Sentiment, Hindus, Advertising, Visual culture, Film industry

The BJP claims India as a Hindu nation.

Key Points:

The BJP claims India as a Hindu nation.
The use of Indian popular cinema for political ends has a long history – one that predates Indian independence.
Since the 1980s, it also set in motion a nationwide trend of using cinematic means to capture the attention of voters.

Mobilizing film fans for electoral campaigns

She discusses case studies of film fans who even worship their favorite celebrities as deities by creating temples to these stars within residential and commercial spaces.
Srinivas found that film fans can make or destroy the careers and lives of stars.
If a star decides to venture into politics, these film fans can become active participants in the star’s political campaigns.
But if the star does something that the fans disapprove of, they will as easily boycott his films and even destroy the star’s career.

An alignment of cinema and politics

The cinema industry in Tamil Nadu, more than any other in India, has evolved closely with political and social developments in the region since the 1940s. The ideals of Tamil nationalism, a political movement that changed the course of history in Tamil Nadu, were powerfully communicated through the medium of entertainment films. Often, the personalities associated with these films were physically present alongside politicians at party meetings.

In my research, I found that the alignment of cinema and politics in Tamil Nadu was helped by the use of identical advertising media.
A favored publicity medium of both the cinema industry and party members was the hand-painted plywood cutout.
In this way, they helped to transfer the power of the cinematic star image to the image of the leader.
I argued that these advertisements played an important role in visualizing, and shaping, the identity politics of Tamil nationalism.

Cinema’s role in divisive politics

Another series of films in the biopic genre showcases the historical legacy of right-wing Hindu nationalist organizations and their leaders.
“PM Narendra Modi,” which reminded voters of the prime minister’s rise from poverty, was scheduled for release just before the 2019 elections.
The film, which demonizes Muslims and shows them committing extremely barbaric and cruel acts, is among those publicly endorsed by the prime minister himself.

Preminda Jacob does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.