DONETSK

• WASHINGTON, April 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The International Women's Media Foundation (IWMF) today announced freelance photojournalist Samar Abu Elouf as the 10th annual recipient of its Anja Niedringhaus Courage in Photojournalism Award .
• This year's award is being issued on April 4, 2024, the 10th anniversary of German photojournalist Anja Niedringhaus 's passing; Niedringhaus was killed while on assignment in Afghanistan with the Associated Press.
• "I am honored to receive this award, to be recognized for my work in Gaza, and to follow in the footsteps of Anja's courage," said Abu Elouf.
• Anja Niedringhaus was a recipient of the IWMF Courage in Journalism Award in 2005.

• But it has not answered the fundamental question of what a winning – or even surviving – strategy in the war with Russia could look like as it moves into its third year.
• Several dynamics have come together that are deeper and more complex than just a major reshuffle of the military leadership.
• This is especially the case if victory for Ukraine means forcing Russia’s complete withdrawal from all territory occupied since 2014.

• It also represents, at best, pyrrhic victories for Russia – as in the case of Bakhmut.
• But taken together, and seen in the context of the failed 2023 counter-offensive, these were not just symbolic defeats.
• They marked a real and extremely wasteful loss of financial resources, manpower and military equipment.

Faltering international support

• The second key factor to keep in mind is that Ukraine’s battlefield successes in 2022 occurred at a time when western support for Ukraine was in full swing.
• This has been evident in the protracted battles in the US congress over sending more military aid to Ukraine.
• Despite some detractors, the EU remains committed to support for Ukraine.

War fatigue

• Meanwhile, Ukrainian society is increasingly suffering from war fatigue.
• Military setbacks, economic decline, deteriorating living conditions, corruption and the scale of the loss of lives – among troops and civilians alike – makes sustaining the war effort at present levels more difficult as well.
• Its provisions, including lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25 years, mandatory digital certificates and electronic prescription notifications and stricter penalties for evading military service, are further evidence of the waning enthusiasm in Ukrainian society for the war effort.
• Yet, because replacing Zaluzhny has not come with a signal that Ukraine’s war strategy will fundamentally change, this is a very risky move on the part of Zelensky.

• He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
• Tetyana Malyarenko receives funding from Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and University of Regensburg, Germany

• Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has ground on, day by day, metre by metre.
• Reports from the frontline are that Russia has committed significant forces to the offensive, and suffered heavy losses.
• In the south, the progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive remains slow, according to Ukraine president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who was speaking at Reuters NEXT conference this week.
• Read more:
  Ukraine war: stalemate on the battlefield and shaky international support putting pressure on Zelensky

• You can also subscribe to our fortnightly recap of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
• This of course, won’t play well with Ukraine’s western donors who want to see concrete evidence of successes on the battlefield.

• But Russian troops, she writes, also know a great deal about fighting in winter conditions.
• Read more:
  Ukraine and Russia claim to be prepared for extremes of winter warfare – here's what they face

Weaponising grain

• Since Russia pulled out of the grain deal in July it has said it regards all shipping moving in and out of Ukrainian ports as legitimate targets.
• This poses a major threat to Ukrainian grain exports and global food security as winter approaches.

Cold war getting warmer

• Tensions ratcheted up this week when Russia announced it was pulling out of an important cold war-era treaty which placed verifiable limits on certain types of military equipment that either side could deploy, such as tanks, aircraft and artillery pieces.
• Read more:
  Russia's decision to ditch cold war arms limitation treaty raises tensions with Nato

The diplomatic front

• The fact is that Moscow has warm relations with all parties to the conflict in Gaza, certainly more so than Washington, which proscribes Hamas as a terrorist organisation.
• She also notes that Hamas officials have visited Moscow three times since the war in Ukraine.
• Russia, she says, is probably the only country Hamas would trust to broker some sort of a peace deal.

• Western news sources regularly report on civilian deaths on the Ukrainian side of the front lines of the war in Ukraine.
• In May 2023, the United Nations reported 8,791 civilians have died and 14,815 have been injured in Ukraine since February 2022.
• Exceptions to this — when the western media has widely reported on casualties behind Russian lines — have largely been when Russian forces have been accused of atrocities.

Civilian casualties prior to 2022

• The war in Ukraine precedes February 2022, so statistics amassed since then aren’t telling the whole story of the conflict.
• In the West, the war is largely perceived to have begun in February 2022 when Vladimir Putin’s government launched what it described as a “special military operation” and invaded Ukraine.
• In January 2022, the United Nations recorded 3,106 conflict-related civilian deaths and as many as 7,000 wounded in fighting in Ukraine up to that point.

Growing threats to civilians

• While many of these weapons have good accuracy, they nonetheless are too often fired by both sides on the basis of inaccurate or flawed intelligence.
• Even after the fighting has moved on from a particular area, the war leaves behind a legacy of unexploded munitions.
• Cluster munitions are another particular threat to civilians long after the fighting has moved on from a given area.

Cluster bomb use likely to increase

• The United States — also not a signatory to the convention — has recently decided to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions from its own stocks.
• That decision can only increase their use by both Ukraine and Russia, meaning that civilians on both sides of the front line will inevitably fall victim to unexploded munitions over time.
• The U.S. claims the munitions it plans to provide Ukraine will leave behind no more than three per cent of the munitions unexploded.