Nate Silver | Jotup

Who’s Vivek Ramaswamy? He's the Trump 2.0 candidate who’s making waves in the Republican primaries

Retrieved on:

Thursday, August 31, 2023

The New York Times described him as promising “to exert breathtaking power in ways that Donald Trump never did”.

Key Points:

The New York Times described him as promising “to exert breathtaking power in ways that Donald Trump never did”.
An article for Time magazine called him a “rockstar for those who think cancel culture is threatening every corner of American life”.
Well-spoken, polemical and supremely self-assured, it’s no surprise that the Trump-loving Vivek Ramaswamy has emerged as the new darling of the Republican presidential primary field.
While still some 40 points out of first place, it’s a sudden uptick for a candidate who was, until recently, a virtual unknown.

The anti-wokester

A self-branded “non-white nationalist” he speaks stridently against the modern progressive movement.
Many of his policies, like the revolution he seeks to provoke, are decidedly counter-establishment.
He advocates hardening the US-Mexico border “where criminals are coming in every day” through the deployment of military resources.

Slash aid to Ukraine

He wants to slash aid to Ukraine, implying that what’s in America’s best interest isn’t necessarily what’s in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s worst interest.
To end the war, Ramaswamy proposes granting Russia “major concessions”, while “freezing … current lines of control in a Korean War-style armistice agreement”.
In exchange, “Russia has to leave its treaty” and its joint military agreement with China.

Creating Trump 2.0

As “Trump 2.0,” his challenge is a delicate one: to please the right-wing base, while still separating himself enough from Trump to win over converts.
Ramaswamy has attacked criminal prosecutions of Trump as “politically motivated and setting an awful precedent.
He’s even hinted at hiring Trump as an "adviser” or “mentor” in his White House.

What’s next?

Washington Post columnist George F. Will has derided him as “comparatively, a child”.
Trump holds a commanding lead and looks poised to dominate Iowa and New Hampshire, before running the table in the remaining primaries.
Whether there’s substance behind his candidacy — and whether he has independent staying power — are the big questions for #Vivek2024 to answer.

US election 2024: beware polling predictions as they can be wrong – but here's an approach which has often been on the money

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Despite the avalanche of legal indictments, Donald Trump remains favourite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 US presidential election.

Key Points:

Despite the avalanche of legal indictments, Donald Trump remains favourite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 US presidential election.
If he does win the Republican nomination the question is: can he win the presidential election in November next year?

Forecasting presidential elections

There is a lively community of political scientists using a variety of different methods to forecast elections, with many focusing on the US.
Most forecasting models use polling data, but since we are 15 months away from the presidential election, current polling should be treated with caution.
It should be noted that US pollsters have had a mixed record in forecasting elections.

Electoral college

The election is determined by who wins the electoral college, not the popular vote.
In the 2016 election Clinton won a larger vote share than Donald Trump but lost the contest in the electoral college.
The electoral college was created by the US founding fathers, with delegates chosen to reflect voting support for the candidates in each state.

A forecasting model

The analysis uses a century of elections from 1920 to 2020, and a relatively simple model has a good track record in predicting elections over this period.
It uses two variables to predict the Republican share of the delegates in the Electoral College, using a technique called multiple regression.
The first and most important predictor in the model is the state of the economy, with an incumbent being rewarded for a good record on economic growth and punished for a poor one.
The model takes into account unusual events occurring over the period that can distort the results if they are ignored.
Needless to say this is uncertain since the model is not a perfect fit to the data and so subject to errors.

How should a robot explore the Moon? A simple question shows the limits of current AI systems

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

At the heart of their concern is the idea AI might become so powerful we lose control of it.

Key Points:

At the heart of their concern is the idea AI might become so powerful we lose control of it.
Ultimately, AI systems should help humans make better, more accurate decisions.
And they create incentives to collect huge amounts of data and may encourage a lax attitude to privacy, legal and ethical questions and risks.

Cause, effect and confidence

Consequently, they are great at interpolating – that is, predicting or filling in the gaps between known values.
It does not generate knowledge, nor the insights necessary for decision-makers operating in complex environments.
As a result, they encourage organisations to assemble enormous repositories of data – or trawl through existing datasets collected for other purposes.

From big data to useful information

Instead, they need useful information.
The usefulness of the information depends on the question at hand, the decisions we face, and the value we attach to the consequences of those decisions.
To paraphrase the US statistician and writer Nate Silver, the amount of truth is approximately constant irrespective of the volume of data we collect.

A robot on the Moon

The degree of confidence is as important as the belief, because it is a measure of what the robot doesn’t know.
The robot lands and faces a decision: which way should it go?
The robot goes to its new location, records observations using its sensors, and updates its belief and associated confidence.

Mapping unknown landscapes

Their jobs involve exploring and mapping unknown social or economic landscapes.
Suppose we wish to develop policies to encourage all children to thrive at school and finish high school.
We need a conceptual map of which actions, at what time, and under what conditions, will help to achieve these goals.

Learning as we go

As new information comes to hand, new actions are chosen to maximise some pre-specified criteria.
Where AI can be useful is in identifying what information is most valuable, via algorithms that quantify what we don’t know.
Automated systems can also gather and store that information at a rate and in places where it may be difficult for humans.
We do need to reform our laws and create new rules to guide the use of potentially dangerous AI systems.

Alteryx Kicks Off Fanalytics Campaign to Meet Growing Demand for Sports & Analytics

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Cloud, Nate Silver, PGA, Silicon, NYSE, NFL, NBA, McLaren, Heart, Alteryx, Golf, PGA Tour, PGA Tour (video game series), LPGA, Premier League, Tune, Sport, AYX, Music, FiveThirtyEight, F1

IRVINE, Calif., March 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Alteryx, Inc. (NYSE: AYX), the Analytics Cloud Platform company, today announced Alteryx Fanalytics, a new initiative showcasing analytic insights and applications across the most watched sports in the world. From players turning to analytics to improve their game to fans exploring insights on their favorite teams, Fanalytics demonstrates how data can impact decisions in professional sports. Alteryx has established new partnerships with professional sports organizations worldwide, including teams and players within F1, NBA, NFL, Premier League, and the PGA Tour.

Key Points:

Alteryx has established new partnerships with professional sports organizations worldwide, including teams and players within F1, NBA, NFL, Premier League, and the PGA Tour.
From the course to the court to the track, Alteryx Fanalytics will feature incredible uses of analytics to further those at the top of their game.
"With this new campaign, Alteryx is tapping into the growing interest and passion that fans across the globe have for the intersection of sports and analytics," said Keith Pearce, Chief Marketing Officer, Alteryx.
Tune in to the LinkedIn live event to see how analytics can be used for predictive modeling around sports outcomes.

AccuWeather Celebrates 60 Years of Superior Forecast Accuracy

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

STATE COLLEGE, Pa., Sept. 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Since its founding in 1962, AccuWeather, the most accurate and most used source of weather forecasts and warnings, has revolutionized the field of meteorology. Now celebrating 60 years, AccuWeather's extraordinary record of forecast accuracy has been responsible for saving tens of thousands of lives in the United States and around the world.

Key Points:

Now celebrating 60 years, AccuWeather's extraordinary record of forecast accuracy has been responsible for saving tens of thousands of lives in the United States and around the world.
Today, when we forecast a snowstorm or a hurricane, people act on it and do what is necessary to get ready."
Study after study of forecast accuracy has confirmed the statistical superiority of AccuWeather forecasts over all other sources.
AccuWeather MinuteCast, the patented AccuWeather RealFeel Temperature and the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes are simply a few tools the company has introduced for greater safety, convenience and comfort.

AS A NEW PRIME MINISTER IS SELECTED, POLL FINDS 80% OF AMERICANS BELIEVE US-UK LEADERSHIP IN NATO IS IMPORTANT TO GLOBAL SECURITY

Retrieved on:

Thursday, September 1, 2022

BOSTON, Sept. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Emerson College poll commissioned by the Association of Marshall Scholars finds that eighty percent of US residents view American and British leadership in NATO as "very" or "somewhat important" to global security. Respondents identified NATO leadership (25%), climate change (21%), and international trade (20%) as the top joint priority areas for the next British Prime Minister, ahead of the Conservative Party selection on Monday, September 5th. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats and eighty-six percent of Republicans consider the US and British leadership "very" or "somewhat important" on global security.

Key Points:

Americans view NATO leadership as the most important issue for the next Prime Minister to address with the US President.
Eighty-seven percent of Democrats and eighty-six percent of Republicans consider the US and British leadership "very" or "somewhat important" on global security.
"Americans understand how critically important US-UK leadership is to global security," said Dr. Nell Breyer, Executive Director of the Association of Marshall Scholars.
The American public hopes the next British Prime Minister will continue prioritizing NATO leadership with the current US administration."

AS A NEW PRIME MINISTER IS SELECTED, POLL FINDS 80% OF AMERICANS BELIEVE US-UK LEADERSHIP IN NATO IS IMPORTANT TO GLOBAL SECURITY

Retrieved on:

Thursday, September 1, 2022

BOSTON, Sept. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Emerson College poll commissioned by the Association of Marshall Scholars finds that eighty percent of US residents view American and British leadership in NATO as "very" or "somewhat important" to global security. Respondents identified NATO leadership (25%), climate change (21%), and international trade (20%) as the top joint priority areas for the next British Prime Minister, ahead of the Conservative Party selection on Monday, September 5th. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats and eighty-six percent of Republicans consider the US and British leadership "very" or "somewhat important" on global security.

Key Points:

Americans view NATO leadership as the most important issue for the next Prime Minister to address with the US President.
Eighty-seven percent of Democrats and eighty-six percent of Republicans consider the US and British leadership "very" or "somewhat important" on global security.
"Americans understand how critically important US-UK leadership is to global security," said Dr. Nell Breyer, Executive Director of the Association of Marshall Scholars.
The American public hopes the next British Prime Minister will continue prioritizing NATO leadership with the current US administration."

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner, and Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, to Headline IMPACT: The Data Observability Summit

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

This year, IMPACT will also feature data architects from some of the industrys best data teams including Roche, Checkout.com, Vox, Auto Trader UK, and others.

Key Points:

This year, IMPACT will also feature data architects from some of the industrys best data teams including Roche, Checkout.com, Vox, Auto Trader UK, and others.
Launched last year as the worlds first-ever data observability event, IMPACT brought thousands of data professionals together to engage with some of the data industrys most defining technologies and approaches, including cloud data warehouses, the lakehouse, Apache Airflow, event streaming, and the data mesh.
As businesses increasingly rely on data to power digital products and drive better decision-making, its mission-critical that this data is accurate and reliable.
Monte Carlo, the data reliability company, is the creator of the industry's first end-to-end Data Observability platform.

Industry Leaders to Share Breakthrough Moments at Alteryx Inspire 2022

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

IRVINE, Calif., April 26, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Alteryx, Inc. (NYSE: AYX), the Analytics Automation Company, today announced the speaker lineup for Alteryx Inspire 2022, the company's annual customer and partner conference taking place in Denver, CO from May 16-19.

Key Points:

IRVINE, Calif., April 26, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Alteryx, Inc. (NYSE: AYX), the Analytics Automation Company, today announced the speaker lineup for Alteryx Inspire 2022, the company's annual customer and partner conference taking place in Denver, CO from May 16-19.
At Inspire, his stories punctuated with humility and humor will share the discoveries that shaped his worldview.
Alteryx, the Analytics Automation company, is focused on enabling every person to transform data into a breakthrough.
Alteryx is a registered trademark of Alteryx, Inc. All other product and brand names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Poll: Significant Majority Of Americans Believe US-UK Relationship Is More Important Today Than It Was Five Years Ago

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

BOSTON, Oct. 6, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Emerson College poll commissioned by the Association of Marshall Scholars finds that 76% of US residents think the US-UK alliance is more important today than it was five years ago. This is a sixteen-point increase from the 60% of US residents responding that way last year.

Key Points:

The majority (60%) of US residents think the new AUKUS deal will positively affect global security, whereas 19% think it will negatively affect global security.
"Despite a period of deep uncertainty, it is clear that the relationship with the UK is seen as foundational to addressing global challenges."
Additionally, the majority (78%) of Americans think it is very important (51%) or somewhat important (27%) for the United States and the United Kingdom to collaborate on combating climate change.
Emerson College Polling is a Charter Member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.